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Lilly Jason Warren: insider trades

Officer at Neogen Corp. No open-market purchases and 16 sales not made under a pre-set plan, reported from October 17, 2019 to October 12, 2023.

What happened after Lilly Jason Warren’s sales?

After their sales, the shares moved −22.8% against the index over 12 months on average (a negative figure means selling was the right call); 88% trailed it.

With 296 insiders tested, some will look skilled or unskilled by chance alone: when we replaced each insider’s stocks with random companies bought on the same days, about 5.7 cleared the bar ahead and 23.3 behind. One record on its own proves little.

Trade by trade

MeasuredTrades countedAverage vs S&P 500MedianWent the right wayYearst-statisticp-valueEvidence
Purchases, 3 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 6 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the trade 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Sales, 3 months after the report 16 −2.5% −0.2% 50% 4 −0.38 0.73 No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the report 16 −22.8% −22.0% 88% 4 −2.62 0.079 No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the trade 16 −21.4% −19.7% 75% 4 −2.44 0.093 No reliable evidence

“Average vs S&P 500” is the stock’s return including dividends minus the index’s over the same dates, from the close on the first trading day after the report, or from the close on the trade date. Only windows that have finished are counted. For sales, a negative figure means the stock lagged after it was sold, so selling was the right call (green). “Went the right way” is the share of purchases that beat the index, or of sales that trailed it. The t-statistic uses one average per year of reports, because one person’s trades bunch into the same stock and weeks, and needs trades in at least four different years; the p-value comes from the t distribution with that number of years (with four years, a t of 2 has p = 0.14). “Some evidence” means p under 5%, “strong evidence” p under 1% over at least six years.

Companies traded

CompanyTitle on the latest filingPurchasesSalesFirst reportLatest report
Neogen Corp NEOG Vice President016October 17, 2019October 12, 2023

Trades and what followed

Moves are against the S&P 500; green means the trade went the insider’s way.

ReportedTradedCompanyTradeValue3 months after report12 months after report12 months after trade
October 12, 2023October 11, 2023 NEOG Sale $30,078 +5.8%−41.0%−38.2%
December 28, 2021December 23, 2021 NEOG Sale $28,563 −28.5%−48.2%−49.2%
September 30, 2021September 30, 2021 NEOG Sale $699,433 −5.0%−53.6%−52.3%
May 4, 2021May 3, 2021 NEOG Sale $33,856 −13.5%−43.2%−44.9%
April 14, 2021April 13, 2021 NEOG Sale $91,604 −9.4%−41.6%−41.4%
February 8, 2021February 5, 2021 NEOG Sale $193,046 −0.9%−34.3%−34.7%
January 7, 2021January 6, 2021 NEOG Sale $913,751 +0.5%−28.4%−22.7%
November 18, 2020November 16, 2020 NEOG Sale $1,052,922 +4.0%−12.1%−11.1%
October 22, 2020October 21, 2020 NEOG Sale $470,753 +9.0%−18.3%−16.7%
August 7, 2020August 5, 2020 NEOG Sale $454,934 −14.5%−25.7%−26.6%
May 7, 2020May 5, 2020 NEOG Sale $56,640 +8.2%−6.2%+1.9%
February 14, 2020February 14, 2020 NEOG Sale $517,034 +5.0%−2.5%+0.5%
February 12, 2020February 10, 2020 NEOG Sale $498,471 +3.0%+4.2%+3.7%
February 7, 2020February 5, 2020 NEOG Sale $375,573 +5.7%+3.7%+3.3%
November 25, 2019November 21, 2019 NEOG Sale $161,525 −4.5%−8.0%−5.2%
October 17, 2019October 16, 2019 NEOG Sale $183,438 −4.7%−9.3%−8.9%

Open-market purchases and sales of at least $10,000 in companies we cover, from SEC Form 4 filings; sales made under a pre-set Rule 10b5-1 plan are not shown. “Not yet” means the window has not finished or the share price was under $5 at entry. These are the shares’ moves after each trade: they say nothing about why Lilly Jason Warren traded and do not suggest the use of non-public information. How every insider compares · the insider trading backtest.