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Marshall Randall: insider trades

10% owner, Other at Protara Therapeutics, Inc. No open-market purchases and 13 sales not made under a pre-set plan, reported from July 14, 2020 to September 15, 2020.

What happened after Marshall Randall’s sales?

After their sales, the shares moved −100.3% against the index over 12 months on average (a negative figure means selling was the right call); 100% trailed it.

With 296 insiders tested, some will look skilled or unskilled by chance alone: when we replaced each insider’s stocks with random companies bought on the same days, about 5.7 cleared the bar ahead and 23.3 behind. One record on its own proves little.

Trade by trade

MeasuredTrades countedAverage vs S&P 500MedianWent the right wayYearst-statisticp-valueEvidence
Purchases, 3 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 6 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the trade 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Sales, 3 months after the report 13 −10.1% −7.7% 62% 1 — — Not enough years
Sales, 12 months after the report 13 −100.3% −102.6% 100% 1 — — Not enough years
Sales, 12 months after the trade 13 −102.0% −103.1% 100% 1 — — Not enough years

“Average vs S&P 500” is the stock’s return including dividends minus the index’s over the same dates, from the close on the first trading day after the report, or from the close on the trade date. Only windows that have finished are counted. For sales, a negative figure means the stock lagged after it was sold, so selling was the right call (green). “Went the right way” is the share of purchases that beat the index, or of sales that trailed it. The t-statistic uses one average per year of reports, because one person’s trades bunch into the same stock and weeks, and needs trades in at least four different years; the p-value comes from the t distribution with that number of years (with four years, a t of 2 has p = 0.14). “Some evidence” means p under 5%, “strong evidence” p under 1% over at least six years.

Companies traded

CompanyTitle on the latest filingPurchasesSalesFirst reportLatest report
Protara Therapeutics, Inc. TARA —013July 14, 2020September 15, 2020

Trades and what followed

Moves are against the S&P 500; green means the trade went the insider’s way.

ReportedTradedCompanyTradeValue3 months after report12 months after report12 months after trade
September 15, 2020September 14, 2020 TARA Sale $49,541 +16.9%−96.6%−96.6%
September 10, 2020September 8, 2020 TARA Sale $249,632 +16.4%−91.8%−96.0%
September 1, 2020August 28, 2020 TARA Sale $17,031 +13.9%−89.7%−94.8%
August 28, 2020August 26, 2020 TARA Sale $45,543 +8.3%−92.0%−94.5%
August 26, 2020August 24, 2020 TARA Sale $78,496 +7.2%−94.0%−98.8%
August 24, 2020August 20, 2020 TARA Sale $12,332 −6.2%−97.0%−105.2%
August 18, 2020August 14, 2020 TARA Sale $56,433 −7.7%−105.5%−106.1%
July 31, 2020July 29, 2020 TARA Sale $100,910 −28.1%−105.0%−106.1%
July 29, 2020July 27, 2020 TARA Sale $790,612 −31.1%−106.6%−108.1%
July 27, 2020July 23, 2020 TARA Sale $62,169 −32.0%−108.9%−106.9%
July 23, 2020July 21, 2020 TARA Sale $42,599 −25.5%−109.4%−103.1%
July 21, 2020July 17, 2020 TARA Sale $116,010 −26.6%−102.6%−102.8%
July 14, 2020July 10, 2020 TARA Sale $131,077 −36.8%−104.5%−107.0%

Open-market purchases and sales of at least $10,000 in companies we cover, from SEC Form 4 filings; sales made under a pre-set Rule 10b5-1 plan are not shown. “Not yet” means the window has not finished or the share price was under $5 at entry. These are the shares’ moves after each trade: they say nothing about why Marshall Randall traded and do not suggest the use of non-public information. How every insider compares · the insider trading backtest.