David E. Price: stock trades

Activity

Would copying David E. Price’s trades have beaten the S&P 500?

Copying David E. Price’s disclosed holdings (starting from the holdings in each annual disclosure report once it was published, then adding purchases and taking off sales as each trade report became public, sized by the amounts reported, with call options counted as the stock until they expired) would have turned $10,000 on August 17, 2015 into $32,027 by November 2, 2026, against $43,193 in the S&P 500: +11.0% a year against +14.0%, with a beta of 0.92. Selling each purchase after 6 months instead would have made +4.3% a year. Six months after each report, the average share purchase was −0.4% against the S&P 500 (median −0.5%), and 47% beat it, well within what luck alone would produce. Measured from the trade date instead, the member’s own timing, the average was −0.7%. Reports arrived a median of 15 days after the trade.

Return a year, copying

+11.0%

S&P 500, same dates

+14.0%

Yearly swing (S&P 500)

18% (18%)

Sharpe ratio (S&P 500)

0.55 (0.70)

Biggest drop (S&P 500)

−38% (−34%)

Market sensitivity (beta)

0.92

“Average vs S&P 500” is the stock’s return including dividends minus the index’s over the same dates. For sales, a negative figure means the stock lagged after it was sold, so selling was the right call (green). “Went the right way” is the share of purchases that beat the index, or of sales that trailed it. The t-statistic treats each trade as a separate bet; the Evidence label is stricter and uses one average per month of reports, because trades bunch together. Trades in companies we cover only. The averages count share trades; the copy portfolio also counts call options as the stock and sizes positions by the middle of each band filed. No trading costs or taxes. These are the stocks’ moves after each trade: they say nothing about why David E. Price traded and do not suggest the use of non-public information. How every member compares.

Stocks traded

Every company we cover that appears in the reports. “Since first purchase” is the stock’s move from the close on the member’s first disclosed purchase to the latest close, against the S&P 500; it is not the member’s return.

Trades in companies we cover

“Stock since trade” is the share price move from the close on the trade date to the latest close, with the gap to the S&P 500 beneath. It describes the stock, not what the member made. Click a column heading to sort.

Filings

• Report filed Apr 6, 2022 1 stock or option trade · YUMC
• Report filed Apr 5, 2022 1 stock or option trade · YUMC
• Report filed Mar 2, 2022 1 stock or option trade · YUM
• Report filed Jan 10, 2022 0 stock or option trades
• Report filed Feb 19, 2021 0 stock or option trades
• Report filed Feb 5, 2021 0 stock or option trades
• Report filed Jan 3, 2021 1 stock or option trade
• Report filed Nov 6, 2020 1 stock or option trade · TXN
• Report filed Aug 5, 2020 0 stock or option trades
• Report filed Jun 9, 2020 0 stock or option trades
• Report filed May 18, 2020 3 stock or option trades · CARR, OTIS, RTX
• Report filed Apr 3, 2020 3 stock or option trades · HD, LOW, PRU
• Report filed Feb 4, 2020 1 stock or option trade · PRU
• Report filed Sep 9, 2019 1 stock or option trade · EMR
• Report filed Jul 11, 2019 3 stock or option trades · KTB, TEVA
• Report filed Jun 4, 2019 1 stock or option trade · MAR
• Report filed Apr 2, 2019 0 stock or option trades
• Report filed Jan 14, 2019 1 stock or option trade · AAPL
• Report filed Jan 3, 2019 2 stock or option trades · CAT, FITB
• Report filed Dec 20, 2018 0 stock or option trades
• Report filed Nov 27, 2018 1 stock or option trade · REZI
• Report filed Nov 27, 2018 1 stock or option trade · CRM
• Report filed Nov 7, 2018 1 stock or option trade · PRU
• Report filed Sep 5, 2018 1 stock or option trade · MMM
• Report filed May 18, 2018 1 stock or option trade · PYPL
• Report filed Apr 16, 2018 0 stock or option trades
• Report filed Mar 8, 2018 1 stock or option trade · HON
• Report filed Jan 30, 2018 4 stock or option trades · AAPL, GE, PYPL, TXN
• Report filed Dec 8, 2017 7 stock or option trades · AA, BHF, PYPL, CRM, TXN
• Report filed Nov 1, 2017 0 stock or option trades
• Report filed Oct 17, 2017 1 stock or option trade
• Report filed Oct 17, 2017 1 stock or option trade · BHF
• Report filed Jul 12, 2017 1 stock or option trade · DVN
• Report filed Jun 6, 2017 2 stock or option trades · AMT, UNIT
• Report filed May 4, 2017 0 stock or option trades
• Report filed Mar 8, 2017 0 stock or option trades
• Report filed Jan 27, 2017 1 stock or option trade · TMO
• Report filed Dec 22, 2016 3 stock or option trades · YUMC
• Report filed Nov 23, 2016 1 stock or option trade
• Report filed Nov 22, 2016 2 stock or option trades · TMO
• Report filed Aug 24, 2016 6 stock or option trades · AMT, MET, TMO, VFC, DIS
• Report filed Aug 12, 2016 1 stock or option trade
• Report filed May 27, 2016 1 stock or option trade · COST
• Report filed May 3, 2016 1 stock or option trade · DIS
• Report filed Jan 28, 2016 5 stock or option trades · AAPL, LNC, MET, DIS
• Report filed Jan 28, 2016 2 stock or option trades
• Report filed Nov 3, 2015 1 stock or option trade
• Report filed Sep 30, 2015 3 stock or option trades · LNC, MET
• Report filed Sep 17, 2015 3 stock or option trades · COST, VFC, DIS
• Report filed Aug 14, 2015 2 stock or option trades · DIS
• Report filed May 14, 2015 Scanned paper report (not transcribed)
• Report filed Mar 3, 2015 1 stock or option trade
• Report filed Feb 4, 2015 2 stock or option trades