Michael Guest: stock trades

Activity

Would copying Michael Guest’s trades have beaten the S&P 500?

Copying Michael Guest’s disclosed holdings (starting from the holdings in each annual disclosure report once it was published, then adding purchases and taking off sales as each trade report became public, sized by the amounts reported, with call options counted as the stock until they expired) would have turned $10,000 on April 6, 2020 into $16,277 by November 2, 2026, against $31,228 in the S&P 500: +7.7% a year against +19.0%, with a beta of 0.70. Selling each purchase after 6 months instead would have made +18.8% a year. Six months after each report, the average share purchase was +2.7% against the S&P 500 (median −2.1%), and 42% beat it, well within what luck alone would produce. Measured from the trade date instead, the member’s own timing, the average was −0.2%. Reports arrived a median of 18 days after the trade.

Return a year, copying

+7.7%

S&P 500, same dates

+19.0%

Yearly swing (S&P 500)

20% (17%)

Sharpe ratio (S&P 500)

0.32 (0.93)

Biggest drop (S&P 500)

−29% (−25%)

Market sensitivity (beta)

0.70

“Average vs S&P 500” is the stock’s return including dividends minus the index’s over the same dates. For sales, a negative figure means the stock lagged after it was sold, so selling was the right call (green). “Went the right way” is the share of purchases that beat the index, or of sales that trailed it. The t-statistic treats each trade as a separate bet; the Evidence label is stricter and uses one average per month of reports, because trades bunch together. Trades in companies we cover only. The averages count share trades; the copy portfolio also counts call options as the stock and sizes positions by the middle of each band filed. No trading costs or taxes. These are the stocks’ moves after each trade: they say nothing about why Michael Guest traded and do not suggest the use of non-public information. How every member compares.

Stocks traded

Every company we cover that appears in the reports. “Since first purchase” is the stock’s move from the close on the member’s first disclosed purchase to the latest close, against the S&P 500; it is not the member’s return.

Trades in companies we cover

“Stock since trade” is the share price move from the close on the trade date to the latest close, with the gap to the S&P 500 beneath. It describes the stock, not what the member made. Click a column heading to sort.

Filings

• Report filed Aug 14, 2026 5 stock or option trades · ABNB, CVX, ELF, XOM
• Report filed Feb 17, 2026 4 stock or option trades · CHRD, DT
• Report filed Nov 19, 2025 1 stock or option trade · MPWR
• Report filed Dec 20, 2024 3 stock or option trades · AMZN, MNDY, TSLA
• Report filed Mar 12, 2024 1 stock or option trade · NVDA
• Report filed Dec 11, 2023 5 stock or option trades · DT, MEDP, UBER, ULTA
• Report filed Nov 20, 2023 3 stock or option trades · ANET, INSW, UEC
• Report filed Aug 23, 2023 31 stock or option trades · ABBV, ABNB, ALL, AMZN, AAPL, T, CVX, CHRD, ELF, XOM, GD, JNJ
• Report filed Aug 11, 2023 Scanned paper report (not transcribed)
• Report filed Jul 14, 2023 0 stock or option trades
• Report filed Apr 14, 2023 0 stock or option trades
• Report filed Feb 24, 2023 3 stock or option trades · WTRG, KMI, PFE
• Report filed Jan 19, 2023 2 stock or option trades
• Report filed Sep 14, 2022 0 stock or option trades
• Report filed Jul 26, 2022 0 stock or option trades
• Report filed Jun 22, 2022 0 stock or option trades
• Report filed May 22, 2022 0 stock or option trades
• Report filed May 2, 2022 2 stock or option trades
• Report filed Mar 18, 2022 1 stock or option trade · T
• Report filed Nov 3, 2021 2 stock or option trades · XOM
• Report filed Apr 3, 2020 2 stock or option trades · T
• Report filed Nov 6, 2019 Scanned paper report (not transcribed)
• Report filed Jul 17, 2019 Scanned paper report (not transcribed)