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Mike Garcia: stock trades

Republican, Representative for CA's 27th district. Value ranges as filed, never exact figures.

Activity

Top sectors

Trades in companies we cover, by the company’s sector. Green is purchases, red is sales.

  • Consumer Discretionary60% of trades 22
  • Industrials30% of trades 11
  • Technology5% of trades 2
  • Communication Services3% of trades 1
  • Financials3% of trades 1

Would copying Mike Garcia’s trades have beaten the S&P 500?

Copying Mike Garcia’s disclosed holdings (starting from the holdings in each annual disclosure report once it was published, then adding purchases and taking off sales as each trade report became public, sized by the amounts reported, with call options counted as the stock until they expired) would have turned $10,000 on November 24, 2020 into $10,278 by November 2, 2026, against $22,582 in the S&P 500: +0.5% a year against +14.8%, with a beta of 1.18. Selling each purchase after 6 months instead would have made +0.6% a year. Many of Mike Garcia’s trades are not share purchases, so only 13 share purchases can be judged trade by trade, too few to rank. Six months after each report, the average share purchase was +9.7% against the S&P 500 (median −7.1%), and 46% beat it. Measured from the trade date instead, the member’s own timing, the average was +15.0%. Reports arrived a median of 14 days after the trade.

$0$10.0k$20.0k 2020202120222023202420252026 $22.6k$10.3k
Copying Mike GarciaS&P 500, buy and hold $10,000 copying Mike Garcia’s disclosed holdings from November 24, 2020, before costs and taxes, marked weekly. Each annual report resets the copy to the holdings it lists; each trade report then adds or reduces positions, sized by the middle of the amount band filed (a partial sale takes off its band but never more than half the position). Holdings before the first report in our records are unknown. Money not in a stock earns the Treasury bill rate.
MeasuredTrades countedAverage vs S&P 500MedianWent the right wayt-statisticEvidence
Purchases, 3 months after the report 13 +9.1% +7.9% 54% 1.44 No reliable evidence
Purchases, 6 months after the report 13 +9.7% −7.1% 46% 0.99 No reliable evidence
Purchases, 3 months after the trade 13 +17.8% +7.3% 62% 1.44 No reliable evidence
Purchases, 6 months after the trade 13 +15.0% +14.5% 69% 1.78 No reliable evidence
Sales, 6 months after the report 24 +17.8% −7.1% 67% 1.31 No reliable evidence
Return a year, copying
+0.5%
S&P 500, same dates
+14.8%
Yearly swing (S&P 500)
39% (16%)
Sharpe ratio (S&P 500)
0.12 (0.71)
Biggest drop (S&P 500)
−76% (−25%)
Market sensitivity (beta)
1.18

“Average vs S&P 500” is the stock’s return including dividends minus the index’s over the same dates. For sales, a negative figure means the stock lagged after it was sold, so selling was the right call (green). “Went the right way” is the share of purchases that beat the index, or of sales that trailed it. The t-statistic treats each trade as a separate bet; the Evidence label is stricter and uses one average per month of reports, because trades bunch together. Trades in companies we cover only. The averages count share trades; the copy portfolio also counts call options as the stock and sizes positions by the middle of each band filed. No trading costs or taxes. These are the stocks’ moves after each trade: they say nothing about why Mike Garcia traded and do not suggest the use of non-public information. How every member compares.

Stocks traded

Every company we cover that appears in the reports. “Since first purchase” is the stock’s move from the close on the member’s first disclosed purchase to the latest close, against the S&P 500; it is not the member’s return.
TSLATesla, Inc. 9$156,009–$465,000 11$207,011–$580,000 May 21, 2020 Jun 12, 2023 ▲ 185.0%+45.4 pts vs S&P
AALAmerican Airlines Group Inc. 2$30,002–$100,000 2$30,002–$100,000 Jul 9, 2020 Dec 10, 2020 ▲ 14.6%−146.5 pts vs S&P
BABoeing 0 4$46,004–$165,000 Jun 3, 2020 Nov 13, 2020 —
AAPLApple Inc. 1$15,001–$50,000 1$15,001–$50,000 Nov 24, 2020 Dec 10, 2020 ▲ 196.1%+71.0 pts vs S&P
UBERUber 0 2$16,002–$65,000 Jun 3, 2020 Nov 5, 2020 —
AMCAMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc. 0 1$1,001–$15,000 Aug 12, 2022 Aug 12, 2022 —
GMEGamestop Corp. 1$1,001–$15,000 0 Jun 21, 2021 Jun 21, 2021 ▼ 51.2%−143.3 pts vs S&P
SBUXStarbucks 0 1$15,001–$50,000 Jun 16, 2020 Jun 16, 2020 —
TXTTextron 0 1$50,001–$100,000 Jul 12, 2022 Jul 12, 2022 —
UBSUBS Group AG 0 1$15,001–$50,000 Nov 9, 2020 Nov 9, 2020 —

Trades in companies we cover

“Stock since trade” is the share price move from the close on the trade date to the latest close, with the gap to the S&P 500 beneath. It describes the stock, not what the member made. Click a column heading to sort.

Report
TSLATesla, Inc. Sale (full)$50,001 - $100,000 Jun 20, 2023 Jun 12, 2023 ▲ 59.1%−22.5 pts vs S&P Filing
TSLATesla, Inc. Sale (partial)$15,001 - $50,000 Jun 20, 2023 Jun 8, 2023 ▲ 69.2%−14.3 pts vs S&P Filing
TSLATesla, Inc. Sale (full)$15,001 - $50,000 Jan 26, 2023 Dec 20, 2022 ▲ 188.4%+80.6 pts vs S&P Filing
TSLATesla, Inc. Purchase$50,001 - $100,000 Oct 25, 2022 Sep 29, 2022 ▲ 48.2%−70.8 pts vs S&P Filing
AMCAMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc. Sale (full)$1,001 - $15,000 Aug 23, 2022 Aug 12, 2022 ▼ 98.7%−185.4 pts vs S&P Filing
TXTTextron Sale (partial)$50,001 - $100,000 Aug 23, 2022 Jul 12, 2022 ▲ 45.1%−64.3 pts vs S&P Filing
TSLATesla, Inc. Purchase$15,001 - $50,000 Feb 23, 2022 Feb 23, 2022 ▲ 56.0%−34.4 pts vs S&P Filing
TSLATesla, Inc. Purchase$15,001 - $50,000 Feb 23, 2022 Jan 25, 2022 ▲ 29.8%−55.1 pts vs S&P Filing
TSLATesla, Inc. Sale (partial)$15,001 - $50,000 Oct 26, 2021 Oct 25, 2021 ▲ 16.3%−60.7 pts vs S&P Filing
TSLATesla, Inc. Sale (partial)$15,001 - $50,000 Oct 26, 2021 Oct 4, 2021 ▲ 52.5%−35.6 pts vs S&P Filing
GMEGamestop Corp. Purchase$1,001 - $15,000 Jul 13, 2021 Jun 21, 2021 ▼ 51.2%−143.3 pts vs S&P Filing
TSLATesla, Inc. Purchase$15,001 - $50,000 May 3, 2021 Apr 28, 2021 ▲ 71.7%−22.7 pts vs S&P Filing
TSLATesla, Inc. Purchase$15,001 - $50,000 May 3, 2021 Apr 12, 2021 ▲ 69.8%−27.3 pts vs S&P Filing
AALAmerican Airlines Group Inc. Sale (full)$15,001 - $50,000 Dec 21, 2020 Dec 10, 2020 ▼ 28.8%−151.7 pts vs S&P Filing
AAPLApple Inc. Sale (full)$15,001 - $50,000 Dec 21, 2020 Dec 10, 2020 ▲ 176.7%+53.7 pts vs S&P Filing
TSLATesla, Inc. Sale (full)$50,001 - $100,000 Dec 21, 2020 Dec 7, 2020 ▲ 85.8%−35.7 pts vs S&P Filing
TSLATesla, Inc. Sale (partial)$15,001 - $50,000 Dec 2, 2020 Nov 25, 2020 ▲ 107.7%−17.7 pts vs S&P Filing
AAPLApple Inc. Purchase$15,001 - $50,000 Dec 2, 2020 Nov 24, 2020 ▲ 196.1%+71.0 pts vs S&P Filing
TSLATesla, Inc. Sale (partial)$15,001 - $50,000 Nov 23, 2020 Nov 23, 2020 ▲ 128.4%−0.3 pts vs S&P Filing
TSLATesla, Inc. Purchase$15,001 - $50,000 Nov 23, 2020 Nov 17, 2020 ▲ 170.0%+43.3 pts vs S&P Filing
TSLATesla, Inc. Sale (partial)$15,001 - $50,000 Nov 23, 2020 Nov 16, 2020 ▲ 192.1%+66.6 pts vs S&P Filing
BABoeing Sale (full)$15,001 - $50,000 Nov 23, 2020 Nov 13, 2020 ▼ 7.2%−135.5 pts vs S&P Filing
TSLATesla, Inc. Purchase$15,001 - $50,000 Nov 23, 2020 Nov 13, 2020 ▲ 191.8%+63.5 pts vs S&P Filing
AALAmerican Airlines Group Inc. Sale (partial)$15,001 - $50,000 Nov 23, 2020 Nov 9, 2020 ▼ 2.9%−133.5 pts vs S&P Filing
UBSUBS Group AG Sale (full)$15,001 - $50,000 Nov 23, 2020 Nov 9, 2020 — Filing
UBERUber Sale (full)$15,001 - $50,000 Nov 23, 2020 Nov 5, 2020 ▲ 59.4%−74.0 pts vs S&P Filing
AALAmerican Airlines Group Inc. Purchase$15,001 - $50,000 Nov 23, 2020 Oct 26, 2020 ▲ 8.6%−132.3 pts vs S&P Filing
TSLATesla, Inc. Purchase$1,001 - $15,000 Nov 23, 2020 Oct 26, 2020 ▲ 183.7%+42.8 pts vs S&P Filing
TSLATesla, Inc. Purchase$15,001 - $50,000 Nov 23, 2020 Sep 4, 2020 ▲ 185.0%+45.4 pts vs S&P Filing
BABoeing Sale (full)$15,001 - $50,000 Nov 23, 2020 Aug 10, 2020 ▼ 3.2%−147.8 pts vs S&P Filing
AALAmerican Airlines Group Inc. Purchase$15,001 - $50,000 Nov 23, 2020 Jul 9, 2020 ▲ 14.6%−146.5 pts vs S&P Filing
SBUXStarbucks Sale (full)$15,001 - $50,000 Jun 17, 2020 Jun 16, 2020 ▲ 54.3%−109.2 pts vs S&P Filing
BABoeing Sale (full)$1,001 - $15,000 Jun 17, 2020 Jun 5, 2020 ▼ 15.4%−173.6 pts vs S&P Filing
BABoeing Sale (full)$15,001 - $50,000 Jun 17, 2020 Jun 3, 2020 ▲ 0.3%−163.8 pts vs S&P Filing
TSLATesla, Inc. Sale (full)$1,001 - $15,000 Jun 17, 2020 Jun 3, 2020 ▲ 575.1%+411.0 pts vs S&P Filing
UBERUber Sale (full)$1,001 - $15,000 Jun 17, 2020 Jun 3, 2020 ▲ 82.0%−82.1 pts vs S&P Filing
TSLATesla, Inc. Sale (full)$1,001 - $15,000 Jun 17, 2020 May 21, 2020 ▲ 620.3%+440.7 pts vs S&P Filing

What happened to the stocks afterwards

Average of the stock’s return minus the S&P 500’s, across this member’s disclosed trade whose window is complete. Nothing here is a member’s profit.

AfterWindowAverage excessTypical (median)Beat the S&P 500TradesFrom the filing date
Purchases 30 days +9.3%few trades +10.1% 62% 13 +8.2% (13)
Purchases 90 days +17.4%few trades +8.1% 62% 13 +10.7% (13)
Sales 30 days +7.5% +5.8% 65% 23 +7.7% (23)
Sales 90 days +16.1% +3.3% 61% 23 +13.4% (23)

Excess return is the stock’s move minus the S&P 500’s over the same dates, measured from the close on the trade date, on closing prices adjusted for splits and dividends. Value ranges are wide, filings arrive up to 45 days late, trades by one member in one stock are not independent, and a stock’s move says nothing about what a member earned. A small average over a few trades is noise, not evidence. This is not investment advice. For sales, a positive figure means the stock went on to beat the market after the sale.

Filings

Holdings and net worth are not shown: members also file annual financial disclosure reports listing what they own, and those are not included here yet. We show only the trades they report.

Source: periodic transaction reports filed with the Clerk of the House of Representatives under the STOCK Act (Senate reports are not included yet). Members report trades by themselves, their spouses and dependent children. Amounts are the value ranges as filed, not exact figures, and a report can be filed up to 45 days after the trade, so the latest trades may not appear yet. Scanned paper reports are linked but not transcribed. By law (5 U.S.C. §13107) these reports may not be used for any commercial purpose other than by news and communications media for dissemination to the general public; we publish them free, as news.

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