Pat Fallon: stock trades

Activity

Would copying Pat Fallon’s trades have beaten the S&P 500?

Copying Pat Fallon’s disclosed holdings (starting from the holdings in each annual disclosure report once it was published, then adding purchases and taking off sales as each trade report became public, sized by the amounts reported, with call options counted as the stock until they expired) would have turned $10,000 on June 18, 2021 into $7,752 by November 2, 2026, against $19,556 in the S&P 500: −4.7% a year against +13.3%, with a beta of 1.23. Selling each purchase after 6 months instead would have made −7.2% a year. Six months after each report, the average share purchase was −12.9% against the S&P 500 (median −14.1%), and 37% beat it, suggestive, but not enough to rule out luck. Measured from the trade date instead, the member’s own timing, the average was −10.6%. Reports arrived a median of 58 days after the trade. 44 purchases had already been sold in full by the time they were reported, so a follower could not copy them; the averages below still count every purchase.

Return a year, copying

−4.7%

S&P 500, same dates

+13.3%

Yearly swing (S&P 500)

27% (17%)

Sharpe ratio (S&P 500)

-0.18 (0.61)

Biggest drop (S&P 500)

−60% (−25%)

Market sensitivity (beta)

1.23

“Average vs S&P 500” is the stock’s return including dividends minus the index’s over the same dates. For sales, a negative figure means the stock lagged after it was sold, so selling was the right call (green). “Went the right way” is the share of purchases that beat the index, or of sales that trailed it. The t-statistic treats each trade as a separate bet; the Evidence label is stricter and uses one average per month of reports, because trades bunch together. Trades in companies we cover only. The averages count share trades; the copy portfolio also counts call options as the stock and sizes positions by the middle of each band filed. No trading costs or taxes. These are the stocks’ moves after each trade: they say nothing about why Pat Fallon traded and do not suggest the use of non-public information. How every member compares.

Stocks traded

Every company we cover that appears in the reports. “Since first purchase” is the stock’s move from the close on the member’s first disclosed purchase to the latest close, against the S&P 500; it is not the member’s return.

Trades in companies we cover

“Stock since trade” is the share price move from the close on the trade date to the latest close, with the gap to the S&P 500 beneath. It describes the stock, not what the member made. Showing the latest 300 of 305 trades; every trade is in the reports below. Click a column heading to sort.

Filings

• Report filed Dec 1, 2022 1 stock or option trade
• Report filed May 14, 2022 118 stock or option trades · AMZN, AAL, AAPL, AMAT, BA, CAT, CVX, CRWD, DE, DOCU, META, FDX
• Report filed Feb 8, 2022 3 stock or option trades · VZ
• Report filed Jan 28, 2022 2 stock or option trades
• Report filed Dec 29, 2021 4 stock or option trades · PYPL
• Report filed Nov 30, 2021 5 stock or option trades · PYPL, LUV, VZ
• Report filed Nov 4, 2021 17 stock or option trades · AMZN, AAL, BA, CVX, CRWD, FDX, PYPL, LUV, XYZ, VZ, DIS
• Report filed Oct 5, 2021 18 stock or option trades · AMZN, AAL, BA, CRWD, FDX, LUV, XYZ, VZ, DIS
• Report filed Sep 3, 2021 8 stock or option trades · AAL, CVX, DE, LUV
• Report filed Aug 18, 2021 4 stock or option trades · AAPL, CRWD, VZ, DIS
• Report filed Jul 2, 2021 48 stock or option trades · AMZN, AAL, AAPL, BA, CAT, CVX, CRWD, DE, DOCU, META, FDX, KKR
• Report filed Jun 17, 2021 93 stock or option trades · AMZN, AAL, AAPL, AMAT, BA, CAT, CVX, META, FDX, MSFT, PYPL, UNH