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Peter Welch: stock trades

Democrat, Representative for VT (at large). Value ranges as filed, never exact figures.

Activity

Top sectors

Trades in companies we cover, by the company’s sector. Green is purchases, red is sales.

  • Technology24% of trades 16
  • Industrials21% of trades 14
  • Financials21% of trades 14
  • Health Care13% of trades 9
  • Consumer Staples9% of trades 6
  • Utilities4% of trades 3

Would copying Peter Welch’s trades have beaten the S&P 500?

Copying Peter Welch’s disclosed holdings (starting from the holdings in each annual disclosure report once it was published, then adding purchases and taking off sales as each trade report became public, sized by the amounts reported, with call options counted as the stock until they expired) would have turned $10,000 on May 17, 2016 into $52,997 by November 2, 2026, against $43,687 in the S&P 500: +17.3% a year against +15.2%, with a beta of 0.95. Selling each purchase after 6 months instead would have made +8.8% a year. Six months after each report, the average share purchase was −0.8% against the S&P 500 (median −2.5%), and 48% beat it, well within what luck alone would produce. Measured from the trade date instead, the member’s own timing, the average was +1.8%. Reports arrived a median of 23 days after the trade. 3 purchases had already been sold in full by the time they were reported, so a follower could not copy them; the averages below still count every purchase.

$0$20.0k$40.0k$60.0k 201620182020202220242026 $53.0k$43.7k
Copying Peter WelchS&P 500, buy and hold $10,000 copying Peter Welch’s disclosed holdings from May 17, 2016, before costs and taxes, marked weekly. Each annual report resets the copy to the holdings it lists; each trade report then adds or reduces positions, sized by the middle of the amount band filed (a partial sale takes off its band but never more than half the position). Holdings before the first report in our records are unknown. Money not in a stock earns the Treasury bill rate.
MeasuredTrades countedAverage vs S&P 500MedianWent the right wayt-statisticEvidence
Purchases, 3 months after the report 23 +1.8% −0.1% 48% 0.45 No reliable evidence
Purchases, 6 months after the report 23 −0.8% −2.5% 48% -0.16 No reliable evidence
Purchases, 3 months after the trade 23 +3.5% +1.5% 52% 0.97 No reliable evidence
Purchases, 6 months after the trade 23 +1.8% +3.7% 52% 0.39 No reliable evidence
Sales, 6 months after the report 45 +0.2% −3.6% 53% 0.07 No reliable evidence
Return a year, copying
+17.3%
S&P 500, same dates
+15.2%
Yearly swing (S&P 500)
22% (18%)
Sharpe ratio (S&P 500)
0.73 (0.75)
Biggest drop (S&P 500)
−39% (−34%)
Market sensitivity (beta)
0.95

“Average vs S&P 500” is the stock’s return including dividends minus the index’s over the same dates. For sales, a negative figure means the stock lagged after it was sold, so selling was the right call (green). “Went the right way” is the share of purchases that beat the index, or of sales that trailed it. The t-statistic treats each trade as a separate bet; the Evidence label is stricter and uses one average per month of reports, because trades bunch together. Trades in companies we cover only. The averages count share trades; the copy portfolio also counts call options as the stock and sizes positions by the middle of each band filed. No trading costs or taxes. These are the stocks’ moves after each trade: they say nothing about why Peter Welch traded and do not suggest the use of non-public information. How every member compares.

Stocks traded

Every company we cover that appears in the reports. “Since first purchase” is the stock’s move from the close on the member’s first disclosed purchase to the latest close, against the S&P 500; it is not the member’s return.
STTState Street Corporation 2$2,002–$30,000 2$2,002–$30,000 Apr 22, 2018 Jan 18, 2019 ▲ 135.8%−69.1 pts vs S&P
AAgilent Technologies 1$1,001–$15,000 2$2,002–$30,000 May 23, 2019 Nov 18, 2021 ▲ 175.0%−23.2 pts vs S&P
AMPAmeriprise Financial 2$2,002–$30,000 1$1,001–$15,000 Jul 20, 2018 May 29, 2019 ▲ 321.8%+116.5 pts vs S&P
EDConsolidated Edison 1$1,001–$15,000 2$2,002–$30,000 Mar 2, 2020 Mar 17, 2020 ▲ 74.5%−93.8 pts vs S&P
FSLRFirst Solar, Inc. 1$1,001–$15,000 2$2,002–$30,000 Jun 1, 2018 Apr 30, 2020 ▲ 333.4%+100.2 pts vs S&P
GISGeneral Mills 1$1,001–$15,000 2$2,002–$30,000 Nov 22, 2019 May 14, 2020 ▼ 15.4%−183.4 pts vs S&P
LNNLindsay Corp 0 3$3,003–$45,000 Jun 22, 2018 Sep 12, 2019 —
PANWPalo Alto Networks 2$2,002–$30,000 1$1,001–$15,000 Oct 24, 2018 Apr 27, 2020 ▲ 1033.1%+812.7 pts vs S&P
SPSCSPS Commerce Inc 1$1,001–$15,000 2$2,002–$30,000 May 1, 2019 May 19, 2020 ▲ 64.3%−124.0 pts vs S&P
USBU.S. Bancorp 0 3$17,003–$80,000 May 9, 2019 Nov 18, 2021 —
CHDChurch & Dwight 1$1,001–$15,000 1$15,001–$50,000 Feb 28, 2020 Nov 18, 2021 ▲ 70.2%−109.8 pts vs S&P
DBXDropbox, Inc. 1$1,001–$15,000 1$1,001–$15,000 Jul 3, 2019 Nov 16, 2020 ▲ 39.5%−140.7 pts vs S&P
FDXFedEx 1$1,001–$15,000 1$1,001–$15,000 Apr 17, 2018 Sep 18, 2018 ▲ 89.2%−104.3 pts vs S&P
FTDRFrontdoor, Inc. 1$1,001–$15,000 1$1,001–$15,000 Feb 19, 2020 Mar 16, 2020 ▲ 94.3%−50.8 pts vs S&P
GEGE Aerospace 0 2$2,002–$30,000 Nov 18, 2021 Nov 26, 2021 —
HUBBHubbell Incorporated 1$1,001–$15,000 1$1,001–$15,000 Apr 10, 2018 Oct 30, 2018 ▲ 423.2%+205.8 pts vs S&P
MDTMedtronic 1$1,001–$15,000 1$1,001–$15,000 Mar 9, 2020 Apr 3, 2020 ▲ 30.4%−172.0 pts vs S&P
MITKMitek Systems Inc 1$1,001–$15,000 1$1,001–$15,000 May 2, 2019 Nov 18, 2021 ▲ 65.5%−123.4 pts vs S&P
QGENQiagen N.V. 1$1,001–$15,000 1$1,001–$15,000 Feb 27, 2020 Mar 24, 2020 ▲ 40.0%−138.8 pts vs S&P
RGNXRegenxbio Inc. 1$1,001–$15,000 1$1,001–$15,000 Oct 22, 2019 Nov 8, 2019 ▼ 80.4%−259.1 pts vs S&P
SCHWCharles Schwab Corporation 1$1,001–$15,000 1$1,001–$15,000 Dec 28, 2018 Apr 9, 2020 ▲ 141.8%−99.3 pts vs S&P
SIRISirius XM Holdings Inc. 0 2$65,002–$150,000 May 23, 2018 May 23, 2018 —
TNCTennant Co 1$1,001–$15,000 1$1,001–$15,000 May 6, 2019 Nov 18, 2021 ▲ 22.9%−164.4 pts vs S&P
UPSUnited Parcel Service 0 2$2,002–$30,000 Sep 16, 2019 Nov 16, 2020 —
BDNBrandywine Realty Trust 0 1$1,001–$15,000 Jun 3, 2020 Jun 3, 2020 —
CSCOCisco 0 1$15,001–$50,000 Nov 18, 2021 Nov 18, 2021 —
HAINHain Celestial Group Inc 0 1$1,001–$15,000 Nov 8, 2018 Nov 8, 2018 —
IBMIBM 0 1$1,001–$15,000 Nov 26, 2021 Nov 26, 2021 —
ORCLOracle Corporation 0 1$1,001–$15,000 Aug 1, 2018 Aug 1, 2018 —
PYPLPayPal 1$1,001–$15,000 0 Mar 20, 2020 Mar 20, 2020 ▼ 31.8%−292.2 pts vs S&P
UNPUnion Pacific Corporation 0 1$15,001–$50,000 Nov 26, 2021 Nov 26, 2021 —
WFCWells Fargo 0 1$1,001–$15,000 Nov 3, 2021 Nov 3, 2021 —
XOMExxonMobil 0 1$1,001–$15,000 Sep 17, 2021 Sep 17, 2021 —

Trades in companies we cover

“Stock since trade” is the share price move from the close on the trade date to the latest close, with the gap to the S&P 500 beneath. It describes the stock, not what the member made. Click a column heading to sort.

Report
GEGE Aerospace Sale (full)$1,001 - $15,000 Dec 17, 2021 Nov 26, 2021 ▲ 438.4%+362.7 pts vs S&P Filing
IBMIBM Sale (full)$1,001 - $15,000 Dec 17, 2021 Nov 26, 2021 ▲ 156.8%+81.1 pts vs S&P Filing
UNPUnion Pacific Corporation Sale (full)$15,001 - $50,000 Dec 17, 2021 Nov 26, 2021 ▲ 42.5%−33.2 pts vs S&P Filing
AAgilent Technologies Sale (full)$1,001 - $15,000 Dec 17, 2021 Nov 18, 2021 ▲ 12.7%−58.9 pts vs S&P Filing
CHDChurch & Dwight Sale (full)$15,001 - $50,000 Dec 17, 2021 Nov 18, 2021 ▲ 27.1%−44.5 pts vs S&P Filing
CSCOCisco Sale (full)$15,001 - $50,000 Dec 17, 2021 Nov 18, 2021 ▲ 120.1%+48.5 pts vs S&P Filing
GEGE Aerospace Sale (partial)$1,001 - $15,000 Dec 17, 2021 Nov 18, 2021 ▲ 423.2%+351.6 pts vs S&P Filing
MITKMitek Systems Inc Sale (full)$1,001 - $15,000 Dec 17, 2021 Nov 18, 2021 ▲ 1.6%−70.0 pts vs S&P Filing
TNCTennant Co Sale (full)$1,001 - $15,000 Dec 17, 2021 Nov 18, 2021 ▼ 5.1%−76.7 pts vs S&P Filing
USBU.S. Bancorp Sale (full)$15,001 - $50,000 Dec 17, 2021 Nov 18, 2021 ▲ 27.2%−44.4 pts vs S&P Filing
WFCWells Fargo Sale (full)$1,001 - $15,000 Dec 3, 2021 Nov 3, 2021 ▲ 85.4%+11.9 pts vs S&P Filing
XOMExxonMobil Sale (full)$1,001 - $15,000 · Spouse Nov 9, 2021 Sep 17, 2021 ▲ 283.7%+201.1 pts vs S&P Filing
DBXDropbox, Inc. Sale (full)$1,001 - $15,000 Dec 4, 2020 Nov 16, 2020 ▲ 87.2%−38.3 pts vs S&P Filing
UPSUnited Parcel Service Sale (full)$1,001 - $15,000 Dec 4, 2020 Nov 16, 2020 ▼ 16.7%−142.2 pts vs S&P Filing
BDNBrandywine Realty Trust Sale (full)$1,001 - $15,000 Jul 1, 2020 Jun 3, 2020 ▼ 46.2%−210.3 pts vs S&P Filing
SPSCSPS Commerce Inc Sale (full)$1,001 - $15,000 Jun 8, 2020 May 19, 2020 ▲ 43.9%−138.5 pts vs S&P Filing
GISGeneral Mills Sale (full)$1,001 - $15,000 Jun 8, 2020 May 14, 2020 ▼ 29.6%−218.9 pts vs S&P Filing
SPSCSPS Commerce Inc Sale (partial)$1,001 - $15,000 Jun 8, 2020 May 8, 2020 ▲ 44.8%−137.1 pts vs S&P Filing
FSLRFirst Solar, Inc. Sale (full)$1,001 - $15,000 May 5, 2020 Apr 30, 2020 ▲ 325.7%+141.9 pts vs S&P Filing
PANWPalo Alto Networks Sale (full)$1,001 - $15,000 May 5, 2020 Apr 27, 2020 ▲ 969.0%+781.8 pts vs S&P Filing
AAgilent Technologies Sale (partial)$1,001 - $15,000 May 5, 2020 Apr 9, 2020 ▲ 135.6%−60.8 pts vs S&P Filing
SCHWCharles Schwab Corporation Sale (full)$1,001 - $15,000 May 5, 2020 Apr 9, 2020 ▲ 166.4%−30.0 pts vs S&P Filing
MDTMedtronic Sale (full)$1,001 - $15,000 Apr 10, 2020 Apr 3, 2020 ▲ 38.9%−193.3 pts vs S&P Filing
QGENQiagen N.V. Sale (full)$1,001 - $15,000 Apr 3, 2020 Mar 24, 2020 ▲ 28.1%−211.0 pts vs S&P Filing
PYPLPayPal Purchase$1,001 - $15,000 Apr 10, 2020 Mar 20, 2020 ▼ 31.8%−292.2 pts vs S&P Filing
GISGeneral Mills Sale (full)$1,001 - $15,000 Apr 10, 2020 Mar 17, 2020 ▼ 26.0%−254.0 pts vs S&P Filing
EDConsolidated Edison Sale (full)$1,001 - $15,000 Apr 3, 2020 Mar 17, 2020 ▲ 57.2%−170.9 pts vs S&P Filing
FTDRFrontdoor, Inc. Sale (full)$1,001 - $15,000 Apr 10, 2020 Mar 16, 2020 ▲ 141.9%−103.9 pts vs S&P Filing
EDConsolidated Edison Sale (partial)$1,001 - $15,000 Apr 3, 2020 Mar 13, 2020 ▲ 67.5%−140.4 pts vs S&P Filing
MDTMedtronic Purchase$1,001 - $15,000 Apr 10, 2020 Mar 9, 2020 ▲ 30.4%−172.0 pts vs S&P Filing
EDConsolidated Edison Purchase$1,001 - $15,000 Apr 3, 2020 Mar 2, 2020 ▲ 74.5%−93.8 pts vs S&P Filing
CHDChurch & Dwight Purchase$1,001 - $15,000 Mar 10, 2020 Feb 28, 2020 ▲ 70.2%−109.8 pts vs S&P Filing
QGENQiagen N.V. Purchase$1,001 - $15,000 Mar 10, 2020 Feb 27, 2020 ▲ 40.0%−138.8 pts vs S&P Filing
FTDRFrontdoor, Inc. Purchase$1,001 - $15,000 Mar 10, 2020 Feb 19, 2020 ▲ 94.3%−50.8 pts vs S&P Filing
GISGeneral Mills Purchase$1,001 - $15,000 Dec 11, 2019 Nov 22, 2019 ▼ 15.4%−183.4 pts vs S&P Filing
RGNXRegenxbio Inc. Sale (full)$1,001 - $15,000 Nov 14, 2019 Nov 8, 2019 ▼ 81.1%−250.8 pts vs S&P Filing
RGNXRegenxbio Inc. Purchase$1,001 - $15,000 Nov 14, 2019 Oct 22, 2019 ▼ 80.4%−259.1 pts vs S&P Filing
UPSUnited Parcel Service Sale (partial)$1,001 - $15,000 Oct 14, 2019 Sep 16, 2019 ▲ 19.2%−159.7 pts vs S&P Filing
LNNLindsay Corp Sale (full)$1,001 - $15,000 Oct 14, 2019 Sep 12, 2019 ▲ 21.6%−156.3 pts vs S&P Filing
DBXDropbox, Inc. Purchase$1,001 - $15,000 Jul 31, 2019 Jul 3, 2019 ▲ 39.5%−140.7 pts vs S&P Filing
USBU.S. Bancorp Sale (full)$1,001 - $15,000 Jul 9, 2019 Jun 11, 2019 ▲ 53.3%−137.9 pts vs S&P Filing
AMPAmeriprise Financial Sale (full)$1,001 - $15,000 Jun 4, 2019 May 29, 2019 ▲ 297.8%+95.4 pts vs S&P Filing
AAgilent Technologies Purchase$1,001 - $15,000 Jun 4, 2019 May 23, 2019 ▲ 175.0%−23.2 pts vs S&P Filing
USBU.S. Bancorp Sale (partial)$1,001 - $15,000 Jun 4, 2019 May 9, 2019 ▲ 56.4%−137.1 pts vs S&P Filing
TNCTennant Co Purchase$1,001 - $15,000 Jun 4, 2019 May 6, 2019 ▲ 22.9%−164.4 pts vs S&P Filing
MITKMitek Systems Inc Purchase$1,001 - $15,000 Jun 4, 2019 May 2, 2019 ▲ 65.5%−123.4 pts vs S&P Filing
SPSCSPS Commerce Inc Purchase$1,001 - $15,000 Jun 4, 2019 May 1, 2019 ▲ 64.3%−124.0 pts vs S&P Filing
STTState Street Corporation Sale (full)$1,001 - $15,000 Feb 7, 2019 Jan 18, 2019 ▲ 202.8%−14.3 pts vs S&P Filing
SCHWCharles Schwab Corporation Purchase$1,001 - $15,000 Jan 9, 2019 Dec 28, 2018 ▲ 141.8%−99.3 pts vs S&P Filing
FSLRFirst Solar, Inc. Purchase$1,001 - $15,000 Jan 9, 2019 Dec 18, 2018 ▲ 333.4%+100.2 pts vs S&P Filing
PANWPalo Alto Networks Purchase$1,001 - $15,000 Dec 5, 2018 Nov 29, 2018 ▲ 1095.5%+885.3 pts vs S&P Filing
STTState Street Corporation Purchase$1,001 - $15,000 Dec 5, 2018 Nov 15, 2018 ▲ 202.7%−8.6 pts vs S&P Filing
HAINHain Celestial Group Inc Sale (full)$1,001 - $15,000 Dec 5, 2018 Nov 8, 2018 ▼ 99.3%−302.4 pts vs S&P Filing
LNNLindsay Corp Sale (full)$1,001 - $15,000 Dec 5, 2018 Nov 5, 2018 ▲ 14.4%−196.5 pts vs S&P Filing
HUBBHubbell Incorporated Purchase$1,001 - $15,000 Nov 6, 2018 Oct 30, 2018 ▲ 423.2%+205.8 pts vs S&P Filing
AMPAmeriprise Financial Purchase$1,001 - $15,000 Nov 6, 2018 Oct 24, 2018 ▲ 377.0%+156.7 pts vs S&P Filing
PANWPalo Alto Networks Purchase$1,001 - $15,000 Nov 6, 2018 Oct 24, 2018 ▲ 1033.1%+812.7 pts vs S&P Filing
FDXFedEx Purchase$1,001 - $15,000 Oct 5, 2018 Sep 18, 2018 ▲ 89.2%−104.3 pts vs S&P Filing
ORCLOracle Corporation Sale (full)$1,001 - $15,000 Sep 5, 2018 Aug 1, 2018 ▲ 199.0%−5.0 pts vs S&P Filing
AMPAmeriprise Financial Purchase$1,001 - $15,000 Aug 3, 2018 Jul 20, 2018 ▲ 321.8%+116.5 pts vs S&P Filing
STTState Street Corporation Purchase$1,001 - $15,000 Aug 3, 2018 Jul 19, 2018 ▲ 135.8%−69.1 pts vs S&P Filing
LNNLindsay Corp Sale (full)$1,001 - $15,000 Jul 6, 2018 Jun 22, 2018 ▲ 21.5%−189.3 pts vs S&P Filing
FSLRFirst Solar, Inc. Sale (full)$1,001 - $15,000 Jul 6, 2018 Jun 1, 2018 ▲ 184.2%−29.3 pts vs S&P Filing
SIRISirius XM Holdings Inc. Sale (full)$50,001 - $100,000 May 30, 2018 May 23, 2018 ▼ 45.0%−258.8 pts vs S&P Filing
SIRISirius XM Holdings Inc. Sale (partial)$15,001 - $50,000 May 30, 2018 May 23, 2018 ▼ 45.0%−258.8 pts vs S&P Filing
STTState Street Corporation Sale (full)$1,001 - $15,000 May 3, 2019 Apr 22, 2018 ▲ 114.8%−107.0 pts vs S&P Filing
FDXFedEx Sale (full)$1,001 - $15,000 May 3, 2019 Apr 17, 2018 ▲ 82.3%−135.1 pts vs S&P Filing
HUBBHubbell Incorporated Sale (full)$1,001 - $15,000 May 3, 2019 Apr 10, 2018 ▲ 343.5%+120.1 pts vs S&P Filing

What happened to the stocks afterwards

Average of the stock’s return minus the S&P 500’s, across this member’s disclosed trade whose window is complete. Nothing here is a member’s profit.

AfterWindowAverage excessTypical (median)Beat the S&P 500TradesFrom the filing date
Purchases 30 days +2.1% +2.7% 57% 23 −1.1% (23)
Purchases 90 days +4.2% +2.7% 52% 23 +1.4% (23)
Sales 30 days −1.7% −3.4% 31% 45 −0.3% (45)
Sales 90 days −4.5% −5.3% 44% 45 −1.5% (45)

Excess return is the stock’s move minus the S&P 500’s over the same dates, measured from the close on the trade date, on closing prices adjusted for splits and dividends. Value ranges are wide, filings arrive up to 45 days late, trades by one member in one stock are not independent, and a stock’s move says nothing about what a member earned. A small average over a few trades is noise, not evidence. This is not investment advice. For sales, a positive figure means the stock went on to beat the market after the sale.

Filings

Holdings and net worth are not shown: members also file annual financial disclosure reports listing what they own, and those are not included here yet. We show only the trades they report.

Source: periodic transaction reports filed with the Clerk of the House of Representatives under the STOCK Act (Senate reports are not included yet). Members report trades by themselves, their spouses and dependent children. Amounts are the value ranges as filed, not exact figures, and a report can be filed up to 45 days after the trade, so the latest trades may not appear yet. Scanned paper reports are linked but not transcribed. By law (5 U.S.C. §13107) these reports may not be used for any commercial purpose other than by news and communications media for dissemination to the general public; we publish them free, as news.

← All trades by members of Congress