Representative for TX (at large). Value ranges as filed, never exact figures.
Activity
Top sectors
Trades in companies we cover, by the company’s sector. Green is purchases, red is sales.
Energy41% of trades7 trades: 4 purchases, 3 sales
Financials35% of trades6 trades: 4 purchases, 2 sales
Materials24% of trades4 trades: 1 purchases, 3 sales
Would copying Randy Neugebauer’s trades have beaten the S&P 500?
Too few trades to judge. Only 8 purchases have six months of prices after the report; we rank members once they have 20. The figures below are shown for completeness and can swing a long way on a handful of trades. Copying Randy Neugebauer’s disclosed holdings (starting from the holdings in each annual disclosure report once it was published, then adding purchases and taking off sales as each trade report became public, sized by the amounts reported, with call options counted as the stock until they expired) would have turned $10,000 on February 3, 2015 into $14,058 by November 2, 2026, against $44,820 in the S&P 500: +3.0% a year against +13.7%, with a beta of 0.12. Selling each purchase after 6 months instead would have made +2.4% a year. Six months after each report, the average share purchase was +1.6% against the S&P 500 (median +1.7%), and 50% beat it. Measured from the trade date instead, the member’s own timing, the average was +3.7%. Reports arrived a median of 3 days after the trade.
Copying Randy NeugebauerS&P 500, buy and hold$10,000 copying Randy Neugebauer’s disclosed holdings from February 3, 2015, before costs and taxes, marked weekly. Each annual report resets the copy to the holdings it lists; each trade report then adds or reduces positions, sized by the middle of the amount band filed (a partial sale takes off its band but never more than half the position). Holdings before the first report in our records are unknown. Money not in a stock earns the Treasury bill rate.
Randy Neugebauer: trades against the S&P 500 afterwards
Measured
Trades counted
Average vs S&P 500
Median
Went the right way
t-statistic
Evidence
Purchases, 3 months after the report
8
+5.5%
+9.1%
63%
1.80
Some evidence: ahead
Purchases, 6 months after the report
8
+1.6%
+1.7%
50%
0.16
No reliable evidence
Purchases, 3 months after the trade
8
+6.5%
+8.7%
88%
2.65
Some evidence: ahead
Purchases, 6 months after the trade
8
+3.7%
−0.7%
50%
0.40
No reliable evidence
Sales, 6 months after the report
6
+7.6%
+11.1%
33%
0.85
Not enough data
Return a year, copying
+3.0%
S&P 500, same dates
+13.7%
Yearly swing (S&P 500)
10% (17%)
Sharpe ratio (S&P 500)
0.12 (0.69)
Biggest drop (S&P 500)
−34% (−34%)
Market sensitivity (beta)
0.12
“Average vs S&P 500” is the stock’s return including dividends minus the index’s over the same dates. For sales, a negative figure means the stock lagged after it was sold, so selling was the right call (green). “Went the right way” is the share of purchases that beat the index, or of sales that trailed it. The t-statistic treats each trade as a separate bet; the Evidence label is stricter and uses one average per month of reports, because trades bunch together. Trades in companies we cover only. The averages count share trades; the copy portfolio also counts call options as the stock and sizes positions by the middle of each band filed. No trading costs or taxes.
These are the stocks’ moves after each trade: they say nothing about why Randy Neugebauer traded and do not suggest the use of non-public information.
How every member compares.
Stocks traded
Every company we cover that appears in the reports. “Since first purchase” is the stock’s move from the close on the member’s first disclosed purchase to the latest close, against the S&P 500; it is not the member’s return.
“Stock since trade” is the share price move from the close on the trade date to the latest close, with the gap to the S&P 500 beneath. It describes the stock, not what the member made. Click a column heading to sort.
Randy Neugebauer has too few trades with a full 30 or 90 day window behind them to say anything (we need at least 20 on a side). The totals are not shown rather than shown on a handful of trades.
Excess return is the stock’s move minus the S&P 500’s over the same dates, measured from the close on the trade date, on closing prices adjusted for splits and dividends. Value ranges are wide, filings arrive up to 45 days late, trades by one member in one stock are not independent, and a stock’s move says nothing about what a member earned. A small average over a few trades is noise, not evidence. This is not investment advice. For sales, a positive figure means the stock went on to beat the market after the sale.
Holdings and net worth are not shown: members also file annual financial disclosure reports listing what they own, and those are not included here yet. We show only the trades they report.
Source: periodic transaction reports filed with the Clerk of the House of Representatives under the STOCK Act (Senate reports are not included yet). Members report trades by themselves, their spouses and dependent children. Amounts are the value ranges as filed, not exact figures, and a report can be filed up to 45 days after the trade, so the latest trades may not appear yet. Scanned paper reports are linked but not transcribed. By law (5 U.S.C. §13107) these reports may not be used for any commercial purpose other than by news and communications media for dissemination to the general public; we publish them free, as news.
