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Raúl M. Grijalva: stock trades

Democrat, Representative for AZ's 3rd district. Value ranges as filed, never exact figures.

Activity

Top sectors

Trades in companies we cover, by the company’s sector. Green is purchases, red is sales.

  • Financials20% of trades 15
  • Industrials18% of trades 14
  • Technology16% of trades 12
  • Health Care16% of trades 12
  • Consumer Discretionary16% of trades 12
  • Real Estate7% of trades 5

Would copying Raúl M. Grijalva’s trades have beaten the S&P 500?

Copying Raúl M. Grijalva’s disclosed holdings (starting from the holdings in each annual disclosure report once it was published, then adding purchases and taking off sales as each trade report became public, sized by the amounts reported, with call options counted as the stock until they expired) would have turned $10,000 on January 6, 2015 into $13,307 by November 2, 2026, against $45,946 in the S&P 500: +2.5% a year against +13.8%, with a beta of 0.12. Selling each purchase after 6 months instead would have made +2.1% a year. Six months after each report, the average share purchase was −0.5% against the S&P 500 (median +1.0%), and 52% beat it, well within what luck alone would produce. Measured from the trade date instead, the member’s own timing, the average was +1.4%. Reports arrived a median of 20 days after the trade. 1 purchase had already been sold in full by the time it was reported, so a follower could not copy it; the averages below still count every purchase.

$0$20.0k$40.0k 201520172019202120232025 $45.9k$13.3k
Copying Raúl M. GrijalvaS&P 500, buy and hold $10,000 copying Raúl M. Grijalva’s disclosed holdings from January 6, 2015, before costs and taxes, marked weekly. Each annual report resets the copy to the holdings it lists; each trade report then adds or reduces positions, sized by the middle of the amount band filed (a partial sale takes off its band but never more than half the position). Holdings before the first report in our records are unknown. Money not in a stock earns the Treasury bill rate.
MeasuredTrades countedAverage vs S&P 500MedianWent the right wayt-statisticEvidence
Purchases, 3 months after the report 29 −1.4% −0.5% 48% -0.94 Some evidence: behind
Purchases, 6 months after the report 29 −0.5% +1.0% 52% -0.24 No reliable evidence
Purchases, 3 months after the trade 29 +3.0% +4.9% 62% 1.56 No reliable evidence
Purchases, 6 months after the trade 29 +1.4% +2.3% 55% 0.63 No reliable evidence
Sales, 6 months after the report 46 +1.3% +1.0% 46% 0.75 No reliable evidence
Return a year, copying
+2.5%
S&P 500, same dates
+13.8%
Yearly swing (S&P 500)
7% (17%)
Sharpe ratio (S&P 500)
0.07 (0.70)
Biggest drop (S&P 500)
−19% (−34%)
Market sensitivity (beta)
0.12

“Average vs S&P 500” is the stock’s return including dividends minus the index’s over the same dates. For sales, a negative figure means the stock lagged after it was sold, so selling was the right call (green). “Went the right way” is the share of purchases that beat the index, or of sales that trailed it. The t-statistic treats each trade as a separate bet; the Evidence label is stricter and uses one average per month of reports, because trades bunch together. Trades in companies we cover only. The averages count share trades; the copy portfolio also counts call options as the stock and sizes positions by the middle of each band filed. No trading costs or taxes. These are the stocks’ moves after each trade: they say nothing about why Raúl M. Grijalva traded and do not suggest the use of non-public information. How every member compares.

Stocks traded

Every company we cover that appears in the reports. “Since first purchase” is the stock’s move from the close on the member’s first disclosed purchase to the latest close, against the S&P 500; it is not the member’s return.
HDThe Home Depot 1$1,001–$15,000 4$4,004–$60,000 Jan 15, 2015 May 20, 2016 —
GILDGilead Sciences 2$2,002–$30,000 2$2,002–$30,000 Dec 30, 2014 May 20, 2016 —
AXPAmerican Express 1$1,001–$15,000 2$2,002–$30,000 May 13, 2015 Jan 13, 2016 —
MCHPMicrochip Technology Inc 2$2,002–$30,000 1$1,001–$15,000 Jan 15, 2015 Sep 19, 2016 —
AAPLApple Inc. 1$1,001–$15,000 1$1,001–$15,000 Jan 13, 2016 Sep 19, 2016 ▲ 1444.9%+1071.3 pts vs S&P
AMGNAmgen 0 2$2,002–$30,000 Jan 15, 2015 May 11, 2015 —
BABoeing 1$1,001–$15,000 1$1,001–$15,000 Sep 3, 2015 Feb 12, 2016 —
BAXBaxter International 1$1,001–$15,000 1$1,001–$15,000 Jul 29, 2015 Oct 15, 2015 —
CBOECboe Global Markets 1$1,001–$15,000 1$1,001–$15,000 Nov 24, 2021 Dec 17, 2021 ▲ 183.1%+111.8 pts vs S&P
DISThe Walt Disney Company 1$1,001–$15,000 1$1,001–$15,000 Feb 5, 2015 Feb 12, 2016 —
FDXFedEx 1$1,001–$15,000 1$1,001–$15,000 Oct 15, 2015 Jan 13, 2016 —
FRFirst Industrial Realty Trust Inc 1$1,001–$15,000 1$1,001–$15,000 Jan 27, 2015 Apr 10, 2015 —
GDGeneral Dynamics 1$1,001–$15,000 1$1,001–$15,000 Apr 10, 2015 Jun 2, 2015 —
GPCGenuine Parts Company 1$1,001–$15,000 1$1,001–$15,000 May 11, 2015 Jul 29, 2015 —
HONHoneywell Technologies 1$1,001–$15,000 1$1,001–$15,000 Aug 19, 2015 Sep 19, 2016 —
IBMIBM 1$1,001–$15,000 1$1,001–$15,000 May 20, 2016 Sep 19, 2016 ▲ 174.4%−158.6 pts vs S&P
IRIngersoll Rand 1$1,001–$15,000 1$1,001–$15,000 Apr 6, 2016 Sep 19, 2016 —
KKRKKR & Co. 1$1,001–$15,000 1$1,001–$15,000 Apr 10, 2015 Apr 28, 2015 —
KSSKohls Corp 1$1,001–$15,000 1$1,001–$15,000 Dec 9, 2015 Apr 6, 2016 ▼ 11.7%−349.8 pts vs S&P
LLYLilly (Eli) 1$1,001–$15,000 1$1,001–$15,000 May 13, 2015 Sep 19, 2016 —
LYBLyondellBasell 1$1,001–$15,000 1$1,001–$15,000 Apr 6, 2016 Sep 19, 2016 ▲ 39.7%−291.3 pts vs S&P
MSFTMicrosoft Corporation 1$1,001–$15,000 1$1,001–$15,000 Sep 15, 2015 Sep 19, 2016 —
PYPLPayPal 1$1,001–$15,000 1$1,001–$15,000 Jul 29, 2015 Sep 3, 2015 —
SBUXStarbucks 1$1,001–$15,000 1$1,001–$15,000 Jul 10, 2015 Sep 19, 2016 —
TXTTextron 1$1,001–$15,000 1$1,001–$15,000 Apr 6, 2016 Sep 19, 2016 ▲ 143.3%−187.7 pts vs S&P
ULUnilever PLC 1$1,001–$15,000 1$1,001–$15,000 Feb 12, 2016 Sep 19, 2016 —
UPSUnited Parcel Service 1$1,001–$15,000 1$1,001–$15,000 Dec 30, 2014 Apr 10, 2015 —
VVisa Inc. 0 2$2,002–$30,000 May 20, 2016 Sep 19, 2016 —
WYWeyerhaeuser 1$1,001–$15,000 1$1,001–$15,000 Feb 12, 2016 Sep 19, 2016 ▲ 42.9%−336.3 pts vs S&P
GLWCorning Inc. 0 1$1,001–$15,000 May 11, 2015 May 11, 2015 —
HRHealthcare Realty Trust Inc 0 1$1,001–$15,000 May 11, 2015 May 11, 2015 —
INTCIntel 0 1$1,001–$15,000 May 13, 2015 May 13, 2015 —
JPMJPMorgan Chase 0 1$1,001–$15,000 Sep 19, 2016 Sep 19, 2016 —
MAMastercard 0 1$1,001–$15,000 Sep 19, 2016 Sep 19, 2016 —
NKENike, Inc. 0 1$1,001–$15,000 May 20, 2016 May 20, 2016 —
OPYOppenheimer Holdings Inc 1$1,001–$15,000 0 Apr 10, 2015 Apr 10, 2015 —
PEPPepsiCo 0 1$1,001–$15,000 Sep 19, 2016 Sep 19, 2016 —
PFEPfizer 0 1$1,001–$15,000 Sep 19, 2016 Sep 19, 2016 —
QCOMQualcomm 0 1$1,001–$15,000 Feb 5, 2015 Feb 5, 2015 —
SYKStryker Corporation 0 1$1,001–$15,000 May 28, 2015 May 28, 2015 —
WFCWells Fargo 0 1$1,001–$15,000 Sep 19, 2016 Sep 19, 2016 —

Trades in companies we cover

“Stock since trade” is the share price move from the close on the trade date to the latest close, with the gap to the S&P 500 beneath. It describes the stock, not what the member made. Click a column heading to sort.

Report
CBOECboe Global Markets Sale (full)$1,001 - $15,000 · Spouse Dec 20, 2021 Dec 17, 2021 ▲ 188.0%+113.8 pts vs S&P Filing
CBOECboe Global Markets Purchase$1,001 - $15,000 · Spouse Dec 15, 2021 Nov 24, 2021 ▲ 183.1%+111.8 pts vs S&P Filing
AAPLApple Inc. Sale (full)$1,001 - $15,000 · Spouse Sep 28, 2016 Sep 19, 2016 ▲ 1202.5%+889.9 pts vs S&P Filing
LLYLilly (Eli) Sale (full)$1,001 - $15,000 · Spouse Sep 28, 2016 Sep 19, 2016 ▲ 1984.4%+1671.8 pts vs S&P Filing
HONHoneywell Technologies Sale (full)$1,001 - $15,000 · Spouse Sep 28, 2016 Sep 19, 2016 ▲ 154.5%−158.1 pts vs S&P Filing
IRIngersoll Rand Sale (full)$1,001 - $15,000 · Spouse Sep 28, 2016 Sep 19, 2016 — Filing
IBMIBM Sale (full)$1,001 - $15,000 · Spouse Sep 28, 2016 Sep 19, 2016 ▲ 158.6%−154.0 pts vs S&P Filing
JPMJPMorgan Chase Sale (full)$1,001 - $15,000 · Spouse Sep 28, 2016 Sep 19, 2016 ▲ 572.5%+259.8 pts vs S&P Filing
LYBLyondellBasell Sale (full)$1,001 - $15,000 · Spouse Sep 28, 2016 Sep 19, 2016 ▲ 50.3%−262.4 pts vs S&P Filing
MAMastercard Sale (full)$1,001 - $15,000 · Spouse Sep 28, 2016 Sep 19, 2016 ▲ 601.3%+288.6 pts vs S&P Filing
MCHPMicrochip Technology Inc Sale (full)$1,001 - $15,000 · Spouse Sep 28, 2016 Sep 19, 2016 ▲ 203.5%−109.2 pts vs S&P Filing
MSFTMicrosoft Corporation Sale (full)$1,001 - $15,000 · Spouse Sep 28, 2016 Sep 19, 2016 ▲ 903.2%+590.5 pts vs S&P Filing
PEPPepsiCo Sale (full)$1,001 - $15,000 · Spouse Sep 28, 2016 Sep 19, 2016 ▲ 81.1%−231.5 pts vs S&P Filing
PFEPfizer Sale (full)$1,001 - $15,000 · Spouse Sep 28, 2016 Sep 19, 2016 ▲ 51.3%−261.4 pts vs S&P Filing
SBUXStarbucks Sale (full)$1,001 - $15,000 · Spouse Sep 28, 2016 Sep 19, 2016 ▲ 144.3%−168.4 pts vs S&P Filing
TXTTextron Sale (full)$1,001 - $15,000 · Spouse Sep 28, 2016 Sep 19, 2016 ▲ 129.5%−183.2 pts vs S&P Filing
ULUnilever PLC Sale (full)$1,001 - $15,000 · Spouse Sep 28, 2016 Sep 19, 2016 — Filing
VVisa Inc. Sale (full)$1,001 - $15,000 · Spouse Sep 28, 2016 Sep 19, 2016 ▲ 453.4%+140.8 pts vs S&P Filing
WFCWells Fargo Sale (full)$1,001 - $15,000 · Spouse Sep 28, 2016 Sep 19, 2016 ▲ 145.8%−166.8 pts vs S&P Filing
WYWeyerhaeuser Sale (full)$1,001 - $15,000 · Spouse Sep 28, 2016 Sep 19, 2016 ▲ 3.9%−308.8 pts vs S&P Filing
GILDGilead Sciences Sale (full)$1,001 - $15,000 · Spouse Jun 9, 2016 May 20, 2016 ▲ 197.0%−136.0 pts vs S&P Filing
HDThe Home Depot Sale (full)$1,001 - $15,000 · Spouse Jun 9, 2016 May 20, 2016 ▲ 233.6%−99.4 pts vs S&P Filing
IBMIBM Purchase$1,001 - $15,000 · Spouse Jun 9, 2016 May 20, 2016 ▲ 174.4%−158.6 pts vs S&P Filing
NKENike, Inc. Sale (full)$1,001 - $15,000 · Spouse Jun 9, 2016 May 20, 2016 ▼ 19.4%−352.4 pts vs S&P Filing
VVisa Inc. Sale (full)$1,001 - $15,000 · Spouse Jun 9, 2016 May 20, 2016 ▲ 488.9%+155.9 pts vs S&P Filing
HDThe Home Depot Sale (full)$1,001 - $15,000 · Spouse May 4, 2016 Apr 6, 2016 ▲ 224.8%−106.3 pts vs S&P Filing
IRIngersoll Rand Purchase$1,001 - $15,000 · Spouse May 4, 2016 Apr 6, 2016 — Filing
KSSKohls Corp Sale (full)$1,001 - $15,000 · Spouse May 4, 2016 Apr 6, 2016 ▼ 8.2%−339.2 pts vs S&P Filing
LYBLyondellBasell Purchase$1,001 - $15,000 · Spouse May 4, 2016 Apr 6, 2016 ▲ 39.7%−291.3 pts vs S&P Filing
TXTTextron Purchase$1,001 - $15,000 · Spouse May 4, 2016 Apr 6, 2016 ▲ 143.3%−187.7 pts vs S&P Filing
BABoeing Sale (full)$1,001 - $15,000 · Spouse Mar 3, 2016 Feb 12, 2016 ▲ 78.4%−300.8 pts vs S&P Filing
ULUnilever PLC Purchase$1,001 - $15,000 · Spouse Mar 3, 2016 Feb 12, 2016 — Filing
DISThe Walt Disney Company Sale (full)$1,001 - $15,000 · Spouse Mar 3, 2016 Feb 12, 2016 ▲ 35.7%−343.5 pts vs S&P Filing
WYWeyerhaeuser Purchase$1,001 - $15,000 · Spouse Mar 3, 2016 Feb 12, 2016 ▲ 42.9%−336.3 pts vs S&P Filing
AXPAmerican Express Sale (full)$1,001 - $15,000 · Spouse Feb 8, 2016 Jan 13, 2016 ▲ 506.6%+133.0 pts vs S&P Filing
AAPLApple Inc. Purchase$1,001 - $15,000 · Spouse Feb 8, 2016 Jan 13, 2016 ▲ 1444.9%+1071.3 pts vs S&P Filing
FDXFedEx Sale (full)$1,001 - $15,000 · Spouse Feb 8, 2016 Jan 13, 2016 ▲ 258.1%−115.6 pts vs S&P Filing
KSSKohls Corp Purchase$1,001 - $15,000 · Spouse Jan 4, 2016 Dec 9, 2015 ▼ 11.7%−349.8 pts vs S&P Filing
BAXBaxter International Sale (full)$1,001 - $15,000 · Spouse Nov 2, 2015 Oct 15, 2015 — Filing
FDXFedEx Purchase$1,001 - $15,000 · Spouse Nov 2, 2015 Oct 15, 2015 — Filing
AXPAmerican Express Sale (full)$1,001 - $15,000 · Spouse Oct 5, 2015 Sep 15, 2015 — Filing
MSFTMicrosoft Corporation Purchase$1,001 - $15,000 · Spouse Oct 5, 2015 Sep 15, 2015 — Filing
BABoeing Purchase$1,001 - $15,000 · Spouse Oct 5, 2015 Sep 3, 2015 — Filing
PYPLPayPal Sale (full)$1,001 - $15,000 · Spouse Oct 5, 2015 Sep 3, 2015 — Filing
HONHoneywell Technologies Purchase$1,001 - $15,000 · Spouse Sep 3, 2015 Aug 19, 2015 — Filing
BAXBaxter International Purchase$1,001 - $15,000 · Spouse Aug 13, 2015 Jul 29, 2015 — Filing
GPCGenuine Parts Company Sale (full)$1,001 - $15,000 · Spouse Aug 13, 2015 Jul 29, 2015 — Filing
PYPLPayPal Purchase$1,001 - $15,000 · Spouse Aug 13, 2015 Jul 29, 2015 — Filing
MCHPMicrochip Technology Inc Purchase$1,001 - $15,000 · Spouse Aug 13, 2015 Jul 14, 2015 — Filing
HDThe Home Depot Sale (full)$1,001 - $15,000 · Spouse Aug 13, 2015 Jul 10, 2015 — Filing
SBUXStarbucks Purchase$1,001 - $15,000 · Spouse Aug 13, 2015 Jul 10, 2015 — Filing
GDGeneral Dynamics Sale (full)$1,001 - $15,000 · Spouse Jul 6, 2015 Jun 2, 2015 — Filing
GILDGilead Sciences Sale (full)$1,001 - $15,000 · Spouse Jun 10, 2015 May 28, 2015 — Filing
SYKStryker Corporation Sale (full)$1,001 - $15,000 · Spouse Jun 10, 2015 May 28, 2015 — Filing
AXPAmerican Express Purchase$1,001 - $15,000 · Spouse Jun 10, 2015 May 13, 2015 — Filing
LLYLilly (Eli) Purchase$1,001 - $15,000 · Spouse Jun 10, 2015 May 13, 2015 — Filing
HDThe Home Depot Purchase$1,001 - $15,000 · Spouse Jun 10, 2015 May 13, 2015 — Filing
INTCIntel Sale (full)$1,001 - $15,000 · Spouse Jun 10, 2015 May 13, 2015 — Filing
AMGNAmgen Sale (full)$1,001 - $15,000 · Spouse Jun 10, 2015 May 11, 2015 — Filing
GLWCorning Inc. Sale (full)$1,001 - $15,000 · Spouse Jun 10, 2015 May 11, 2015 — Filing
GPCGenuine Parts Company Purchase$1,001 - $15,000 · Spouse Jun 10, 2015 May 11, 2015 — Filing
HRHealthcare Realty Trust Inc Sale (full)$1,001 - $15,000 · Spouse Jun 10, 2015 May 11, 2015 — Filing
KKRKKR & Co. Sale (full)$1,001 - $15,000 · Spouse May 14, 2015 Apr 28, 2015 — Filing
GDGeneral Dynamics Purchase$1,001 - $15,000 · Spouse May 14, 2015 Apr 10, 2015 — Filing
KKRKKR & Co. Purchase$1,001 - $15,000 · Spouse May 14, 2015 Apr 10, 2015 — Filing
OPYOppenheimer Holdings Inc Purchase$1,001 - $15,000 · Spouse May 14, 2015 Apr 10, 2015 — Filing
UPSUnited Parcel Service Sale (full)$1,001 - $15,000 · Spouse May 14, 2015 Apr 10, 2015 — Filing
FRFirst Industrial Realty Trust Inc Sale (full)$1,001 - $15,000 · Spouse May 14, 2015 Apr 10, 2015 — Filing
QCOMQualcomm Sale (full)$1,001 - $15,000 · Spouse Mar 2, 2015 Feb 5, 2015 — Filing
DISThe Walt Disney Company Purchase$1,001 - $15,000 · Spouse Mar 2, 2015 Feb 5, 2015 — Filing
FRFirst Industrial Realty Trust Inc Purchase$1,001 - $15,000 · Spouse Feb 2, 2015 Jan 27, 2015 — Filing
AMGNAmgen Sale (full)$1,001 - $15,000 · Spouse Feb 2, 2015 Jan 15, 2015 — Filing
GILDGilead Sciences Purchase$1,001 - $15,000 · Spouse Feb 2, 2015 Jan 15, 2015 — Filing
HDThe Home Depot Sale (full)$1,001 - $15,000 · Spouse Feb 2, 2015 Jan 15, 2015 — Filing
MCHPMicrochip Technology Inc Purchase$1,001 - $15,000 · Spouse Feb 2, 2015 Jan 15, 2015 — Filing
GILDGilead Sciences Purchase$1,001 - $15,000 · Spouse Jan 5, 2015 Dec 30, 2014 — Filing
UPSUnited Parcel Service Purchase$1,001 - $15,000 · Spouse Jan 5, 2015 Dec 30, 2014 — Filing

What happened to the stocks afterwards

Average of the stock’s return minus the S&P 500’s, across this member’s disclosed trade whose window is complete. Nothing here is a member’s profit.

AfterWindowAverage excessTypical (median)Beat the S&P 500TradesFrom the filing date
Purchases 30 days +3.7%few trades +2.2% 57% 7 +1.2% (8)
Purchases 90 days +2.9%few trades +3.5% 57% 7 −5.4% (8)
Sales 30 days −1.4% −1.2% 33% 27 −0.2% (28)
Sales 90 days −0.1% −3.3% 41% 27 +0.3% (28)

Excess return is the stock’s move minus the S&P 500’s over the same dates, measured from the close on the trade date, on closing prices adjusted for splits and dividends. Value ranges are wide, filings arrive up to 45 days late, trades by one member in one stock are not independent, and a stock’s move says nothing about what a member earned. A small average over a few trades is noise, not evidence. This is not investment advice. For sales, a positive figure means the stock went on to beat the market after the sale.

Filings

Holdings and net worth are not shown: members also file annual financial disclosure reports listing what they own, and those are not included here yet. We show only the trades they report.

Source: periodic transaction reports filed with the Clerk of the House of Representatives under the STOCK Act (Senate reports are not included yet). Members report trades by themselves, their spouses and dependent children. Amounts are the value ranges as filed, not exact figures, and a report can be filed up to 45 days after the trade, so the latest trades may not appear yet. Scanned paper reports are linked but not transcribed. By law (5 U.S.C. §13107) these reports may not be used for any commercial purpose other than by news and communications media for dissemination to the general public; we publish them free, as news.

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