Roger Marshall: stock trades

Activity

Would copying Roger Marshall’s trades have beaten the S&P 500?

Copying Roger Marshall’s disclosed holdings (starting from the holdings in each annual disclosure report once it was published, then adding purchases and taking off sales as each trade report became public, sized by the amounts reported, with call options counted as the stock until they expired) would have turned $10,000 on August 7, 2018 into $61,360 by November 2, 2026, against $29,993 in the S&P 500: +24.7% a year against +14.3%, with a beta of 0.93. Selling each purchase after 6 months instead would have made +1.0% a year. Six months after each report, the average share purchase was +4.9% against the S&P 500 (median +3.9%), and 57% beat it, well within what luck alone would produce. Measured from the trade date instead, the member’s own timing, the average was +2.8%. Reports arrived a median of 39 days after the trade. 39 purchases had already been sold in full by the time they were reported, so a follower could not copy them; the averages below still count every purchase.

Return a year, copying

+24.7%

S&P 500, same dates

+14.3%

Yearly swing (S&P 500)

55% (19%)

Sharpe ratio (S&P 500)

0.55 (0.65)

Biggest drop (S&P 500)

−48% (−34%)

Market sensitivity (beta)

0.93

“Average vs S&P 500” is the stock’s return including dividends minus the index’s over the same dates. For sales, a negative figure means the stock lagged after it was sold, so selling was the right call (green). “Went the right way” is the share of purchases that beat the index, or of sales that trailed it. The t-statistic treats each trade as a separate bet; the Evidence label is stricter and uses one average per month of reports, because trades bunch together. Trades in companies we cover only. The averages count share trades; the copy portfolio also counts call options as the stock and sizes positions by the middle of each band filed. No trading costs or taxes. These are the stocks’ moves after each trade: they say nothing about why Roger Marshall traded and do not suggest the use of non-public information. How every member compares.

Stocks traded

Every company we cover that appears in the reports. “Since first purchase” is the stock’s move from the close on the member’s first disclosed purchase to the latest close, against the S&P 500; it is not the member’s return.

Trades in companies we cover

“Stock since trade” is the share price move from the close on the trade date to the latest close, with the gap to the S&P 500 beneath. It describes the stock, not what the member made. Click a column heading to sort.

Filings

• Report filed Sep 28, 2021 Scanned paper report (not transcribed)
• Report filed Oct 13, 2020 9 stock or option trades · INTC, MSFT, ROKU
• Report filed Jul 2, 2020 1 stock or option trade · BABA
• Report filed Jun 3, 2020 11 stock or option trades · AMD, BABA, GILD, ROKU, DIS, YETI
• Report filed Jan 9, 2020 8 stock or option trades · BABA, AAPL, YETI
• Report filed Dec 11, 2019 8 stock or option trades · AMZN, CLS, MU, NFLX
• Report filed Aug 28, 2019 0 stock or option trades
• Report filed Apr 11, 2019 1 stock or option trade · NVDA
• Report filed Dec 6, 2018 2 stock or option trades · TSLA
• Report filed Nov 2, 2018 1 stock or option trade · BABA
• Report filed Oct 1, 2018 2 stock or option trades · BABA
• Report filed Sep 5, 2018 5 stock or option trades · AAPL, MSFT
• Report filed Aug 10, 2018 21 stock or option trades · AMZN, NFLX, NVDA, SNAP, TSLA, VZ
• Report filed Aug 6, 2018 80 stock or option trades · AMD, ATOS, CAPR, CASY, CMG, DCTH, HTZ, LULU, PM, RCON, ROKU, SNAP
• Report filed Apr 21, 2017 0 stock or option trades
• Report filed Mar 13, 2017 Scanned paper report (not transcribed)