The number
Real GDP grew at a 3.4% annualised rate in the third quarter of 2026, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
The trend
The 3.4% rate marks an acceleration from the 2.2% annualised growth recorded in the second quarter of 2026, but it sits below the 3.9% pace of the same quarter a year earlier. Growth sped up from the second quarter without regaining its prior-year strength.
Other indicators released since then point the same way. Retail sales rose 6.3% year-on-year in September 2026, faster than the 5.6% growth logged in August and well above the 3.7% pace recorded a year earlier. Industrial production grew 2.2% year-on-year in September, up from 1.6% in August and ahead of the 1.9% rate from a year before. Both series show demand and output firming through the third quarter, consistent with the pickup already visible in the GDP figure.
The labour market has moved in the opposite direction, if only slightly. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2% in September 2026 from 4.1% in August, though it remains below the 4.4% rate recorded a year earlier. Growth has accelerated even as joblessness has edged up over the most recent month, a combination that complicates any single read on how much slack remains in the economy.
Rates
The 10-year Treasury yield stood at 4.98% on 29 October 2026, down from 5.05% the previous session. That is a modest daily move, and it leaves the yield far above the 4.08% level recorded a year earlier. Yields have climbed by roughly a point over the past twelve months even as growth has swung between 2.2% and 3.9% across the period, a sign that borrowing costs have been shaped by more than the quarterly growth numbers alone. The small pullback on 29 October came after the GDP release but does not establish that the data caused it.
What it means for our coverage
Higher Treasury yields raise the discount rate used to value future cash flows. The effect is largest for companies whose value depends on cash flows expected far in the future, and for companies whose debt is large against the value of those cash flows. With the 10-year yield still about a point above where it stood a year ago, that pressure on valuations has not eased, even as growth has picked up.
What's next
| Measure | Latest | Previous | Year earlier |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real GDP growth (annualised) | 3.4% (Q3 2026) | 2.2% | 3.9% |
| Retail sales growth (yoy) | 6.3% (Sep 2026) | 5.6% | 3.7% |
| Industrial production growth (yoy) | 2.2% (Sep 2026) | 1.6% | 1.9% |
| Unemployment rate | 4.2% (Sep 2026) | 4.1% | 4.4% |
| 10-year Treasury yield | 4.98% (29 Oct 2026) | 5.05% | 4.08% |
No further release dates were set out in the data reviewed for this update. Subsequent GDP, retail sales, industrial production and unemployment readings will update this picture as they are published, and the 10-year yield will continue to move daily as markets price incoming data.
FAQ
What was the latest US GDP growth rate?
Real GDP grew at a 3.4% annualised rate in the third quarter of 2026, up from 2.2% in the second quarter and below the 3.9% pace recorded a year earlier.
Did GDP growth beat the previous quarter?
Yes. The 3.4% annualised rate for Q3 2026 was faster than the 2.2% rate recorded in Q2 2026, though it remained below the 3.9% growth seen in the same quarter a year earlier.