Micron Technology shares fell 6.26% on Thursday, a decline broadly in line with the rest of the chip sector but slightly steeper than most peers. Other covered semiconductor companies fell a median 5.65% the same session, with Micron’s own shares down 0.61 percentage points versus that peer median. A beta-adjusted calculation puts the broader market’s own contribution at 46.2% of the move, leaving most of Thursday’s decline unexplained by broad-market swings alone. Micron had filed nothing with the SEC since the previous session.
How big was Thursday’s drop
Micron’s beta to the S&P 500 is 2.45x. The S&P 500 (SPY) fell 1.18% on the day and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) fell 2.86%; multiplying beta by the index move implies a drop of −2.89% from market factors alone. Thursday’s slide was 1.2x Micron’s typical daily move over the past year, which has averaged 5.13%. The last session with a decline at least this large came on 18 August 2026.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Share price move | −6.3% |
| Previous close | $913.67 |
| Price | $856.49 |
| Peer median move | −5.7% |
| Market-explained share | 46% |
| Typical daily move (1y) | 5.13% |
Volume and the shape of the session
Trading volume ran 1.22x its 30-day average. Shares opened down 3.68% from the previous close and traded in an intraday range of 6.95% between the day’s high and low.
Where this sits in the trend
The drop extends a difficult month: Micron is down 20.1% over the past month, though it remains up 314.8% over the past year, 299.0 percentage points ahead of the S&P 500 over that stretch. The stock sits down 29.4% from its 52-week high and 17.5% above its 200-day average.
Earnings, guidance and estimates
Micron’s last reported quarter, for the period ended 2026-08-31, beat the average analyst estimate by 5.00%, one of 4 quarters above the estimate in the last 8 reported. In its 2026-09-30 results release the company guided first-quarter fiscal 2027 revenue to $61.50 billion and gross margin to approximately 86.0% to 86.2%, alongside operating expenses of approximately $2.06 billion to $2.31 billion. Analysts have raised their average EPS estimate for the next financial year by 27.0% over the past 90 days and now expect consensus revenue growth of 15.7% for that year. Micron is covered by 46 analysts in total; recommendations have turned more positive, with 45 carrying positive recommendations, up 5 from three months earlier, against 3 neutral and 1 negative recommendations.
Who has been buying and selling
Insider activity has run one-directional. Micron recorded 98 open-market insider sales worth $96 million over the past 90 days, with zero purchases; 97 of those sales were made under pre-set 10b5-1 plans. The largest single trade was Sadana Sumit’s sale of $14 million on 2026-08-18. Institutional ownership looks steadier: 13F filers numbered 3,738 as of 2026-06-30, with 1,018 new positions opened and 160 closed that quarter, for a net change in shares held of 0.2%. Short interest stood at 2.31% of tradable shares as of 2026-09-30, down 12.4% from the prior month, equivalent to 1.04x average daily volume to cover.
What it means for value
At Thursday’s price of $856.49, Fundamentalytics’ model puts base-case value per share at $1,800, with a range of $1,400 to $2,300 across lower and higher cases. The price implies cash-flow growth of 9.1% over the next five years, the rate our model solves for at which value equals price, against the 256.3% revenue growth Micron actually delivered on a trailing-twelve-month basis.
At the current price, the market implies cash-flow growth of 9.10% a year over the next five years. Our base case values the shares at $1,800, with a lower-case scenario pulling value down to $1,400 and a higher-case scenario lifting it up to $2,300. The free-cash-flow margin behind those numbers stood at 44.3% in the latest filing, while operating margin was up 48.5 percentage points from a year earlier. These are model values under stated assumptions, not a comparison with the share price.
What comes next
Micron’s next results are due 2026-12-23. Analysts expect EPS of $38.28 and revenue of $62 billion for that quarter, against this financial year’s consensus revenue of $276 billion and consensus growth of 106.8%. Whether Thursday’s fall marks a pause in a sector-wide reaction or the start of a company-specific reassessment should become clearer against those numbers.