undamentalytics Newsletter

Congress: members

Carlos Mr Curbelo

Backtest from 11 Jan 2017 to 2 Nov 2026 · weekly · hypothetical

Watch this strategy
Return a year
+12.1%
S&P 500 +14.8%
Last 12 months
+5.4%
S&P 500 +12.1%
Sharpe ratio
0.57
S&P 500 0.74
Biggest drop
−31.9%
S&P 500 −31.8%
$10.0k$20.0k$40.0k 20172019202120232025 $38.8k$30.6k
Carlos Mr CurbeloS&P 500 $10,000 in Carlos Mr Curbelo from 11 Jan 2017 against the S&P 500 (total return) over the same dates, marked weekly, log scale. Hypothetical: before taxes and trading costs.

About

Mirrors the disclosed stock holdings of Rep. Carlos Mr Curbelo (Independent, FL) and family. It buys on the first trading day after each report is filed, sized by the middle of the value band reported, starts from the holdings listed in the member's annual disclosure report once that report is public, and holds each position until a sale is reported. Call options count as the stock until they expire. Members often report weeks or months late, so this is what a follower could actually have done.

Carlos Mr Curbelo's trades →

Key statistics

MeasureStrategyS&P 500
Return a year (compound)+12.1%+14.8%
Total return+206%+288%
Last 12 months+5.4%+12.1%
Last 3 months+2.8%—
Last month+8.7%—
This year so far+0.6%—
Volatility a year18.4%17.1%
Sharpe ratio0.570.74
Biggest drop−31.9%−31.8%
Beta to the S&P 5000.971.00
Alpha a year (t-statistic)−1.9% (−0.75)—
Share of weeks up56%—

Sharpe ratio uses returns above the 3-month Treasury bill rate. Alpha is the yearly return left after allowing for the strategy's exposure to the S&P 500 (CAPM); a t-statistic below about 2 means it cannot be told apart from luck. 38 reported trades were copied.

Insights

CompanyWeightHeld sinceReturn since
FSLR9.8%7 Apr 2017+586.0%
V8.0%11 Jan 2017+457.4%
AMP7.5%11 Jan 2017+425.4%
ORLY6.9%11 Jan 2017+382.3%
TMO6.9%11 Jan 2017+382.1%
TJX6.1%11 Jan 2017+324.2%
BLK5.6%11 Jan 2017+289.8%
ROK5.3%11 Jan 2017+271.9%
LOW5.3%11 Jan 2017+269.0%
ICE4.9%11 Jan 2017+243.1%
ECL4.1%11 Jan 2017+190.1%
ACN3.8%11 Jan 2017+167.1%
KMI3.5%11 Jan 2017+148.5%
HON3.5%11 Jan 2017+144.5%
ADBE3.3%11 Jan 2017+133.0%
SBUX3.2%11 Jan 2017+121.1%
CL2.7%11 Jan 2017+88.9%
BDX2.5%11 Jan 2017+74.9%
MDT2.5%11 Jan 2017+72.1%
CVS2.1%11 Jan 2017+46.2%
IVZ2.0%11 Jan 2017+38.9%
OPK0.6%8 Feb 2017−79.5%
PeriodReturn a yearS&P 500SharpeS&P 500Biggest dropBetaAlpha (t)
Whole backtest11 Jan 2017 to 2 Nov 2026+12.1%+14.8%0.570.74−31.9%0.97−1.9% (−0.75)
2018 onwards5 Jan 2018 to 2 Nov 2026+10.5%+13.9%0.470.66−31.9%0.97−2.5% (−0.92)
Last three years3 Nov 2023 to 2 Nov 2026+10.6%+21.8%0.471.16−15.3%0.71−5.0% (−0.90)
Last year7 Nov 2025 to 2 Nov 2026+5.0%+14.2%0.140.84−12.8%0.54−3.8% (−0.38)
DateCompanyAction
7 Apr 2017FSLRBought
8 Feb 2017OPKBought
11 Jan 2017VBought
11 Jan 2017TMOBought
11 Jan 2017TJXBought
11 Jan 2017SBUXBought
11 Jan 2017ROKBought
11 Jan 2017ORLYBought
11 Jan 2017MDTBought
11 Jan 2017LOWBought
11 Jan 2017KMIBought
11 Jan 2017IVZBought
11 Jan 2017ICEBought
11 Jan 2017HONBought
11 Jan 2017ECLBought
11 Jan 2017CVSBought
11 Jan 2017CLBought
11 Jan 2017BLKBought
11 Jan 2017BDXBought
11 Jan 2017AMPBought
11 Jan 2017ADBEBought
11 Jan 2017ACNBought

Dated on the first trading day after the report was filed, when a follower could have acted.

None recorded.

Dated on the first trading day after the report was filed, when a follower could have acted.

Backtests are hypothetical and use today's listed companies only, which flatters results. Past performance does not predict future returns. This is research, not investment advice. How we backtest