Rankin Roger F and related entities: insider trades

Other at 3 companies we cover. 159 open-market purchases and no sales not made under a pre-set plan, reported from December 21, 2015 to January 26, 2021. Trades reported separately by several related funds or companies are counted once, under this name.

Would copying Rankin Roger F and related entities’s purchases have beaten the S&P 500?

Buying each purchase the day after it was reported, an equal amount each, and holding it 12 months or until they reported a sale would have turned $10,000 on December 22, 2015 into $16,734 by November 2, 2026, +4.9% a year. The copy held shares only 43% of the time, so the fair comparison is the S&P 500 on those same days with Treasury bills otherwise: $21,823, +7.5% a year (the S&P 500 held throughout made $44,203, +14.7% a year). Beta against the index was 0.64. Twelve months after each report, the average purchase was −19.8% against the S&P 500 (median −28.5%), and 14% beat it: within what luck alone would produce (p = 0.75 over 5 years). Measured from the trade date, the insider’s own timing, the average was −18.3%.

With 296 insiders tested, some will look skilled or unskilled by chance alone: when we replaced each insider’s stocks with random companies bought on the same days, about 5.7 cleared the bar ahead and 23.3 behind. One record on its own proves little.

Copying Rankin Roger F and related entitiesS&P 500, same days investedS&P 500, held throughout $10,000 copying Rankin Roger F and related entities’s open-market purchases from December 22, 2015, before costs and taxes, marked weekly. Each purchase gets the same starting stake, bought at the close of the first trading day after the report and sold 12 months later or the day after a reported sale of that stock; uninvested money earns the Treasury bill rate. “Same days invested” holds the S&P 500 only on the days the copy held shares, Treasury bills otherwise.

Return a year, copying: +4.9%
S&P 500, same days invested: +7.5% (held throughout +14.7%)
Time in shares: 43%
Sharpe ratio (S&P 500): 0.22 (0.73)
Biggest drop (S&P 500): −57% (−34%)
Market sensitivity (beta): 0.64
Purchases copied: 159

Trade by trade

Rankin Roger F and related entities: trades against the S&P 500 afterwards
Measured	Trades counted	Average vs S&P 500	Median	Went the right way	Years	t-statistic	p-value	Evidence
Purchases, 3 months after the report	159	+0.1%	+0.3%	52%	5	0.71	0.52	No reliable evidence
Purchases, 6 months after the report	159	−12.3%	−15.1%	32%	5	−0.42	0.70	No reliable evidence
Purchases, 12 months after the report	159	−19.8%	−28.5%	14%	5	0.34	0.75	No reliable evidence
Purchases, 12 months after the trade	159	−18.3%	−27.0%	14%	5	0.45	0.68	No reliable evidence
Sales, 3 months after the report	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	Not enough years
Sales, 12 months after the report	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	Not enough years
Sales, 12 months after the trade	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	Not enough years

“Average vs S&P 500” is the stock’s return including dividends minus the index’s over the same dates, from the close on the first trading day after the report, or from the close on the trade date. Only windows that have finished are counted. For sales, a negative figure means the stock lagged after it was sold, so selling was the right call (green). “Went the right way” is the share of purchases that beat the index, or of sales that trailed it. The t-statistic uses one average per year of reports, because one person’s trades bunch into the same stock and weeks, and needs trades in at least four different years; the p-value comes from the t distribution with that number of years (with four years, a t of 2 has p = 0.14). “Some evidence” means p under 5%, “strong evidence” p under 1% over at least six years.

Companies traded

Company	Title on the latest filing	Purchases	First report	Latest report
Hyster-yale, Inc. HY	—	149	September 21, 2016	January 26, 2021
Nacco Industries Inc NC	—	9	December 21, 2015	January 26, 2021
Hamilton Beach Brands Holding Co HBB	—	1	January 26, 2021	January 26, 2021

Trades and what followed

Moves are against the S&P 500; green means the trade went the insider’s way.

Reported	Traded	Company	Trade	Value	3 months after report	12 months after report	12 months after trade
January 26, 2021	January 22, 2021	NC	Purchase	$66,563	−10.0%	+15.2%	+30.0%
January 26, 2021	January 22, 2021	HY	Purchase	$816,072	−19.3%	−71.6%	−67.5%
January 26, 2021	January 22, 2021	HBB	Purchase	$203,528	−2.4%	−44.7%	−42.5%
July 12, 2019	July 11, 2019	HY	Purchase	$29,020	−5.3%	−36.8%	−39.7%
July 12, 2019	July 10, 2019	HY	Purchase	$46,593	−5.3%	−36.8%	−40.6%
July 12, 2019	July 10, 2019	HY	Purchase	$21,234	−5.3%	−36.8%	−40.6%
July 10, 2019	July 9, 2019	HY	Purchase	$35,151	−7.9%	−39.7%	−39.3%
July 10, 2019	July 8, 2019	HY	Purchase	$46,621	−7.9%	−39.7%	−38.5%
July 10, 2019	July 8, 2019	HY	Purchase	$23,326	−7.9%	−39.7%	−38.5%
July 8, 2019	July 5, 2019	HY	Purchase	$37,233	−3.9%	−39.3%	−37.3%
July 8, 2019	July 3, 2019	HY	Purchase	$49,731	−3.9%	−39.3%	−34.5%
July 8, 2019	July 3, 2019	HY	Purchase	$24,836	−3.9%	−39.3%	−34.5%
July 3, 2019	July 2, 2019	HY	Purchase	$30,720	−5.8%	−37.3%	−35.6%
July 3, 2019	July 2, 2019	HY	Purchase	$27,265	−5.8%	−37.3%	−35.6%
June 27, 2019	June 26, 2019	HY	Purchase	$12,526	−1.0%	−33.6%	−37.5%
June 27, 2019	June 25, 2019	HY	Purchase	$48,133	−1.0%	−33.6%	−37.8%
June 27, 2019	June 25, 2019	HY	Purchase	$13,512	−1.0%	−33.6%	−37.8%
June 25, 2019	June 24, 2019	HY	Purchase	$36,429	+1.6%	−37.5%	−36.0%
June 25, 2019	June 21, 2019	HY	Purchase	$32,802	+1.6%	−37.5%	−35.4%
June 25, 2019	June 21, 2019	HY	Purchase	$21,897	+1.6%	−37.5%	−35.4%
June 20, 2019	June 20, 2019	HY	Purchase	$25,108	+0.8%	−35.4%	−32.7%
June 20, 2019	June 19, 2019	HY	Purchase	$32,294	+0.8%	−35.4%	−33.9%
June 20, 2019	June 19, 2019	HY	Purchase	$16,566	+0.8%	−35.4%	−33.9%
June 19, 2019	June 18, 2019	HY	Purchase	$13,031	+4.9%	−32.7%	−31.5%
June 19, 2019	June 17, 2019	HY	Purchase	$43,731	+4.9%	−32.7%	−28.9%
June 19, 2019	June 17, 2019	HY	Purchase	$13,013	+4.9%	−32.7%	−28.9%
June 17, 2019	June 14, 2019	HY	Purchase	$36,013	+6.4%	−31.5%	−28.6%
June 17, 2019	June 14, 2019	HY	Purchase	$32,775	+6.4%	−31.5%	−28.6%
June 17, 2019	June 13, 2019	HY	Purchase	$55,507	+6.4%	−31.5%	−29.9%
June 17, 2019	June 13, 2019	HY	Purchase	$24,020	+6.4%	−31.5%	−29.9%
April 11, 2019	April 9, 2019	HY	Purchase	$12,153	−23.9%	−40.7%	−37.3%
April 5, 2019	April 3, 2019	HY	Purchase	$12,998	−22.2%	−36.8%	−30.5%
April 3, 2019	April 2, 2019	HY	Purchase	$12,618	−21.4%	−32.9%	−28.5%
April 3, 2019	April 1, 2019	HY	Purchase	$12,843	−21.4%	−32.9%	−28.7%
April 1, 2019	March 29, 2019	HY	Purchase	$26,058	−22.0%	−28.5%	−24.6%
April 1, 2019	March 28, 2019	HY	Purchase	$26,108	−22.0%	−28.5%	−26.4%
March 28, 2019	March 27, 2019	HY	Purchase	$26,246	−15.0%	−24.6%	−25.4%
March 27, 2019	March 26, 2019	HY	Purchase	$26,004	−15.9%	−26.4%	−26.0%
March 27, 2019	March 25, 2019	HY	Purchase	$11,259	−15.9%	−26.4%	−27.5%
March 27, 2019	March 25, 2019	HY	Purchase	$10,257	−15.9%	−26.4%	−27.5%
March 21, 2019	March 20, 2019	HY	Purchase	$14,363	−16.9%	−22.2%	−30.0%
March 19, 2019	March 19, 2019	HY	Purchase	$20,517	−20.4%	−30.0%	−29.3%
March 19, 2019	March 18, 2019	HY	Purchase	$21,578	−20.4%	−30.0%	−29.3%
March 19, 2019	March 18, 2019	HY	Purchase	$13,017	−20.4%	−30.0%	−29.3%
March 15, 2019	March 15, 2019	HY	Purchase	$26,594	−23.6%	−29.3%	−31.2%
March 15, 2019	March 14, 2019	HY	Purchase	$27,322	−23.6%	−29.3%	−30.9%
March 15, 2019	March 13, 2019	HY	Purchase	$27,426	−23.6%	−29.3%	−36.5%
March 13, 2019	March 12, 2019	HY	Purchase	$27,292	−23.4%	−30.9%	−38.6%
March 13, 2019	March 11, 2019	HY	Purchase	$27,487	−23.4%	−30.9%	−42.7%
March 11, 2019	March 8, 2019	HY	Purchase	$21,760	−28.0%	−38.6%	−41.1%
March 11, 2019	March 7, 2019	HY	Purchase	$22,387	−28.0%	−38.6%	−40.5%
March 6, 2019	March 6, 2019	HY	Purchase	$22,032	−28.7%	−40.5%	−40.0%
March 5, 2019	March 1, 2019	HY	Purchase	$14,941	−27.8%	−40.0%	−35.8%
March 5, 2019	March 1, 2019	HY	Purchase	$11,371	−27.8%	−40.0%	−35.8%
January 8, 2019	January 4, 2019	HY	Purchase	$18,160	−16.1%	−38.8%	−36.8%
January 4, 2019	January 3, 2019	HY	Purchase	$13,962	−15.7%	−40.2%	−37.7%
January 4, 2019	January 2, 2019	HY	Purchase	$36,442	−15.7%	−40.2%	−36.2%
January 4, 2019	January 2, 2019	HY	Purchase	$25,461	−15.7%	−40.2%	−36.2%
January 4, 2019	January 2, 2019	HY	Purchase	$24,094	−15.7%	−40.2%	−36.2%
January 2, 2019	December 31, 2018	HY	Purchase	$25,648	−11.4%	−37.7%	−33.9%
January 2, 2019	December 28, 2018	HY	Purchase	$24,467	−11.4%	−37.7%	−34.8%
January 2, 2019	December 28, 2018	HY	Purchase	$23,806	−11.4%	−37.7%	−34.8%
January 2, 2019	December 28, 2018	HY	Purchase	$22,336	−11.4%	−37.7%	−34.8%
December 31, 2018	December 27, 2018	HY	Purchase	$34,057	−11.2%	−36.2%	−32.5%
December 31, 2018	December 27, 2018	HY	Purchase	$32,621	−11.2%	−36.2%	−32.5%
December 27, 2018	December 26, 2018	HY	Purchase	$50,864	−10.2%	−34.8%	−33.0%
December 27, 2018	December 24, 2018	HY	Purchase	$55,339	−10.2%	−34.8%	−35.9%
December 27, 2018	December 24, 2018	HY	Purchase	$23,913	−10.2%	−34.8%	−35.9%
December 26, 2018	December 21, 2018	HY	Purchase	$47,176	−9.4%	−32.5%	−35.2%
December 26, 2018	December 21, 2018	HY	Purchase	$12,069	−9.4%	−32.5%	−35.2%
December 21, 2018	December 20, 2018	HY	Purchase	$30,496	−10.6%	−35.9%	−30.3%
December 21, 2018	December 20, 2018	HY	Purchase	$28,604	−10.6%	−35.9%	−30.3%
December 21, 2018	December 19, 2018	HY	Purchase	$40,849	−10.6%	−35.9%	−29.3%
December 19, 2018	December 18, 2018	HY	Purchase	$22,659	−7.9%	−30.3%	−28.9%
December 19, 2018	December 18, 2018	HY	Purchase	$10,995	−7.9%	−30.3%	−28.9%
December 19, 2018	December 17, 2018	HY	Purchase	$29,669	−7.9%	−30.3%	−20.7%
December 19, 2018	December 17, 2018	HY	Purchase	$20,675	−7.9%	−30.3%	−20.7%
December 17, 2018	December 14, 2018	HY	Purchase	$10,610	−7.3%	−28.9%	−20.0%
December 17, 2018	December 13, 2018	HY	Purchase	$25,571	−7.3%	−28.9%	−18.8%
December 13, 2018	December 12, 2018	HY	Purchase	$21,229	−4.6%	−20.0%	−17.7%
December 13, 2018	December 11, 2018	HY	Purchase	$42,252	−4.6%	−20.0%	−14.5%
December 11, 2018	December 10, 2018	HY	Purchase	$39,575	−7.7%	−17.7%	−16.1%
December 11, 2018	December 7, 2018	HY	Purchase	$20,925	−7.7%	−17.7%	−18.2%
December 7, 2018	December 6, 2018	HY	Purchase	$20,507	−0.6%	−16.1%	−20.7%
December 7, 2018	December 4, 2018	HY	Purchase	$21,317	−0.6%	−16.1%	−23.4%
December 3, 2018	November 30, 2018	HY	Purchase	$23,162	+0.3%	−23.4%	−24.9%
December 3, 2018	November 29, 2018	HY	Purchase	$23,450	+0.3%	−23.4%	−22.9%
November 29, 2018	November 28, 2018	HY	Purchase	$17,366	−1.9%	−24.9%	−24.6%
November 29, 2018	November 27, 2018	HY	Purchase	$23,591	−1.9%	−24.9%	−23.4%
November 27, 2018	November 26, 2018	HY	Purchase	$18,522	−2.3%	−24.6%	−25.7%
November 27, 2018	November 23, 2018	HY	Purchase	$23,201	−2.3%	−24.6%	−25.0%
November 21, 2018	November 20, 2018	HY	Purchase	$11,611	+4.4%	−25.0%	−28.6%
November 21, 2018	November 20, 2018	HY	Purchase	$11,290	+4.4%	−25.0%	−28.6%
November 20, 2018	November 19, 2018	HY	Purchase	$12,201	+9.6%	−27.1%	−24.5%
November 20, 2018	November 16, 2018	HY	Purchase	$22,300	+9.6%	−27.1%	−21.9%
November 20, 2018	November 16, 2018	HY	Purchase	$10,826	+9.6%	−27.1%	−21.9%
November 16, 2018	November 14, 2018	HY	Purchase	$38,336	+12.9%	−24.5%	−22.2%
November 14, 2018	November 13, 2018	HY	Purchase	$16,187	+18.6%	−23.2%	−23.1%
November 14, 2018	November 12, 2018	HY	Purchase	$16,630	+18.6%	−23.2%	−21.5%
November 13, 2018	November 9, 2018	HY	Purchase	$17,090	+20.1%	−22.2%	−21.2%
November 6, 2018	November 2, 2018	HY	Purchase	$30,500	+6.5%	−26.3%	−24.9%
November 2, 2018	November 1, 2018	HY	Purchase	$20,844	+4.6%	−29.3%	−26.1%
November 2, 2018	October 31, 2018	HY	Purchase	$22,698	+4.6%	−29.3%	−26.6%
November 2, 2018	October 31, 2018	HY	Purchase	$17,782	+4.6%	−29.3%	−26.6%
October 31, 2018	October 30, 2018	HY	Purchase	$30,449	+14.5%	−26.1%	−33.4%
October 31, 2018	October 29, 2018	HY	Purchase	$30,627	+14.5%	−26.1%	−30.2%
October 29, 2018	October 26, 2018	HY	Purchase	$41,966	+9.8%	−33.4%	−27.0%
October 29, 2018	October 25, 2018	HY	Purchase	$28,505	+9.8%	−33.4%	−26.1%
October 25, 2018	October 24, 2018	HY	Purchase	$28,984	+14.3%	−27.0%	−25.4%
October 25, 2018	October 23, 2018	HY	Purchase	$28,787	+14.3%	−27.0%	−25.7%
October 23, 2018	October 22, 2018	HY	Purchase	$29,106	+15.6%	−25.4%	−25.4%
October 23, 2018	October 19, 2018	HY	Purchase	$27,050	+15.6%	−25.4%	−23.3%
October 19, 2018	October 18, 2018	HY	Purchase	$13,448	+13.6%	−25.4%	−27.1%
October 19, 2018	October 17, 2018	HY	Purchase	$14,091	+13.6%	−25.4%	−29.5%
October 17, 2018	October 16, 2018	HY	Purchase	$14,090	+18.7%	−27.1%	−32.7%
October 17, 2018	October 15, 2018	HY	Purchase	$27,717	+18.7%	−27.1%	−33.1%
October 15, 2018	October 12, 2018	HY	Purchase	$24,843	+11.8%	−32.7%	−26.4%
October 15, 2018	October 11, 2018	HY	Purchase	$25,750	+11.8%	−32.7%	−29.7%
October 11, 2018	October 10, 2018	HY	Purchase	$26,342	+20.5%	−26.4%	−24.7%
October 11, 2018	October 9, 2018	HY	Purchase	$13,355	+20.5%	−26.4%	−25.0%
October 9, 2018	October 8, 2018	HY	Purchase	$13,279	+20.4%	−24.7%	−25.9%
October 9, 2018	October 5, 2018	HY	Purchase	$23,131	+20.4%	−24.7%	−20.9%
October 5, 2018	October 4, 2018	HY	Purchase	$11,770	+18.5%	−25.9%	−20.4%
October 4, 2018	October 3, 2018	HY	Purchase	$11,741	+24.0%	−20.9%	−22.2%
October 4, 2018	October 2, 2018	HY	Purchase	$22,924	+24.0%	−20.9%	−18.9%
October 2, 2018	October 1, 2018	HY	Purchase	$23,091	+14.6%	−22.2%	−17.9%
October 2, 2018	September 28, 2018	HY	Purchase	$20,439	+14.6%	−22.2%	−17.4%
September 28, 2018	September 27, 2018	HY	Purchase	$20,976	+17.3%	−17.9%	−13.1%
September 28, 2018	September 26, 2018	HY	Purchase	$10,507	+17.3%	−17.9%	−13.8%
September 26, 2018	September 24, 2018	HY	Purchase	$15,076	+15.1%	−13.1%	−16.6%
September 17, 2018	September 13, 2018	HY	Purchase	$11,202	+4.4%	−17.0%	−13.1%
September 14, 2018	September 12, 2018	HY	Purchase	$10,974	+4.9%	−17.9%	−7.8%
September 12, 2018	September 11, 2018	HY	Purchase	$10,956	+5.8%	−13.1%	−8.4%
September 12, 2018	September 10, 2018	HY	Purchase	$11,195	+5.8%	−13.1%	−7.5%
September 10, 2018	September 6, 2018	HY	Purchase	$26,619	+5.7%	−8.4%	−10.6%
September 10, 2018	September 6, 2018	HY	Purchase	$14,525	+5.7%	−8.4%	−10.6%
September 7, 2018	September 5, 2018	HY	Purchase	$22,918	+4.4%	−7.5%	−14.2%
September 6, 2018	September 4, 2018	HY	Purchase	$22,670	+4.3%	−8.1%	−12.6%
October 7, 2016	October 5, 2016	HY	Purchase	$99,747	+4.0%	+22.2%	+9.9%
October 5, 2016	October 4, 2016	HY	Purchase	$92,655	+0.2%	+15.8%	+11.0%
October 5, 2016	October 3, 2016	HY	Purchase	$92,002	+0.2%	+15.8%	+13.0%
October 3, 2016	September 30, 2016	HY	Purchase	$64,628	+2.5%	+11.0%	+13.3%
October 3, 2016	September 29, 2016	HY	Purchase	$95,032	+2.5%	+11.0%	+13.4%
September 30, 2016	September 28, 2016	HY	Purchase	$93,645	+3.5%	+13.0%	+15.6%
September 29, 2016	September 27, 2016	HY	Purchase	$91,977	+2.6%	+13.3%	+15.0%
September 28, 2016	September 26, 2016	HY	Purchase	$91,077	+5.1%	+13.4%	+15.1%
September 27, 2016	September 23, 2016	HY	Purchase	$34,428	+7.4%	+15.6%	+15.9%
September 27, 2016	September 23, 2016	HY	Purchase	$26,966	+7.4%	+15.6%	+15.9%
September 26, 2016	September 22, 2016	HY	Purchase	$76,150	+8.3%	+15.0%	+27.2%
September 22, 2016	September 20, 2016	HY	Purchase	$144,300	+9.8%	+15.9%	+34.1%
September 21, 2016	September 19, 2016	HY	Purchase	$72,157	+20.9%	+27.2%	+36.0%
January 20, 2016	January 19, 2016	NC	Purchase	$16,681	+23.3%	+59.0%	+64.3%
January 13, 2016	January 12, 2016	NC	Purchase	$14,639	+23.7%	+70.0%	+76.1%
January 11, 2016	January 8, 2016	NC	Purchase	$13,091	+28.9%	+76.1%	+77.7%
January 8, 2016	January 6, 2016	NC	Purchase	$11,991	+32.4%	+79.4%	+87.4%
January 6, 2016	January 4, 2016	NC	Purchase	$17,570	+29.6%	+81.8%	+97.5%
December 28, 2015	December 23, 2015	NC	Purchase	$18,516	+32.1%	+107.6%	+100.1%
December 23, 2015	December 21, 2015	NC	Purchase	$17,524	+31.3%	+103.4%	+118.6%
December 21, 2015	December 17, 2015	NC	Purchase	$16,397	+36.7%	+116.4%	+113.8%

Open-market purchases and sales of at least $10,000 in companies we cover, from SEC Form 4 filings; sales made under a pre-set Rule 10b5-1 plan are not shown. “Not yet” means the window has not finished or the share price was under $5 at entry. These are the shares’ moves after each trade: they say nothing about why Rankin Roger F and related entities traded and do not suggest the use of non-public information. How every insider compares · the insider trading backtest.