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Warburg Pincus LLC and related entities: insider trades

Director, 10% owner at 7 companies we cover. 1 open-market purchase and 11 sales not made under a pre-set plan, reported from March 9, 2012 to February 17, 2026. Trades reported separately by several related funds or companies are counted once, under this name.

Would copying Warburg Pincus LLC and related entities’s purchases have beaten the S&P 500?

Too few purchases to judge. None of their purchases has 12 months of prices after the report; we judge insiders once they have 20. The figures below can swing a long way on a handful of trades. After their sales, the shares moved −26.2% against the index over 12 months on average (a negative figure means selling was the right call); 78% trailed it. None of their purchases could be priced, so there is no copy portfolio.

With 296 insiders tested, some will look skilled or unskilled by chance alone: when we replaced each insider’s stocks with random companies bought on the same days, about 5.7 cleared the bar ahead and 23.3 behind. One record on its own proves little.

Trade by trade

MeasuredTrades countedAverage vs S&P 500MedianWent the right wayYearst-statisticp-valueEvidence
Purchases, 3 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 6 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the trade 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Sales, 3 months after the report 11 −13.4% −14.2% 73% 8 −2.08 0.077 No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the report 9 −26.2% −27.4% 78% 6 −2.12 0.088 No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the trade 9 −27.1% −24.6% 100% 6 −3.21 0.024 Some evidence: seller right

“Average vs S&P 500” is the stock’s return including dividends minus the index’s over the same dates, from the close on the first trading day after the report, or from the close on the trade date. Only windows that have finished are counted. For sales, a negative figure means the stock lagged after it was sold, so selling was the right call (green). “Went the right way” is the share of purchases that beat the index, or of sales that trailed it. The t-statistic uses one average per year of reports, because one person’s trades bunch into the same stock and weeks, and needs trades in at least four different years; the p-value comes from the t distribution with that number of years (with four years, a t of 2 has p = 0.14). “Some evidence” means p under 5%, “strong evidence” p under 1% over at least six years.

Companies traded

CompanyTitle on the latest filingPurchasesSalesFirst reportLatest report
Builders Firstsource, Inc. BLDR —12March 9, 2012May 25, 2016
Outset Medical, Inc. OM —03December 9, 2020April 15, 2021
Kosmos Energy Ltd. KOS —02May 31, 2017September 21, 2018
Mbia Inc MBI —01May 22, 2015May 22, 2015
Alignment Healthcare, Inc. ALHC —01April 1, 2021April 1, 2021
Sotera Health Co SHC —01December 5, 2025December 5, 2025
Banc Of California, Inc. BANC —01February 17, 2026February 17, 2026

Trades and what followed

Moves are against the S&P 500; green means the trade went the insider’s way.

ReportedTradedCompanyTradeValue3 months after report12 months after report12 months after trade
February 17, 2026February 13, 2026 BANC Sale $85,425,000 −14.1%not yetnot yet
December 5, 2025December 3, 2025 SHC Sale $158,727,600 −15.4%not yetnot yet
April 15, 2021April 13, 2021 OM Sale $197,765,450 −24.3%−24.9%−24.6%
April 1, 2021March 30, 2021 ALHC Sale $21,065,606 −9.6%−63.1%−62.3%
January 7, 2021January 5, 2021 OM Sale $27,840,227 +5.7%−42.9%−38.4%
December 9, 2020December 7, 2020 OM Sale $185,601,429 −10.0%−40.5%−38.9%
September 21, 2018September 19, 2018 KOS Sale $150,617,285 −42.5%−32.2%−32.2%
May 31, 2017May 26, 2017 KOS Sale $214,876,268 +11.0%+15.3%−1.4%
May 25, 2016May 24, 2016 BLDR Sale $137,937,966 +6.8%+1.5%−2.9%
November 25, 2015November 25, 2015 BLDR Sale $91,350,000 −34.1%−27.4%−22.5%
May 22, 2015May 22, 2015 MBI Sale $237,892,500 −20.7%−21.5%−20.9%
March 9, 2012March 7, 2012 BLDR Purchase $71,187 not yetnot yetnot yet

Open-market purchases and sales of at least $10,000 in companies we cover, from SEC Form 4 filings; sales made under a pre-set Rule 10b5-1 plan are not shown. “Not yet” means the window has not finished or the share price was under $5 at entry. These are the shares’ moves after each trade: they say nothing about why Warburg Pincus LLC and related entities traded and do not suggest the use of non-public information. How every insider compares · the insider trading backtest.