Palmer Anthony J.: insider trades

Officer, Director at 2 companies we cover. No open-market purchases and 18 sales not made under a pre-set plan, reported from February 1, 2012 to May 24, 2019.

What happened after Palmer Anthony J.’s sales?

After their sales, the shares moved −3.9% against the index over 12 months on average (a negative figure means selling was the right call); 56% trailed it.

With 296 insiders tested, some will look skilled or unskilled by chance alone: when we replaced each insider’s stocks with random companies bought on the same days, about 5.7 cleared the bar ahead and 23.3 behind. One record on its own proves little.

Trade by trade

Palmer Anthony J.: trades against the S&P 500 afterwards
Measured	Trades counted	Average vs S&P 500	Median	Went the right way	Years	t-statistic	p-value	Evidence
Purchases, 3 months after the report	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	Not enough years
Purchases, 6 months after the report	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the report	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the trade	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	Not enough years
Sales, 3 months after the report	18	−1.4%	−2.5%	61%	8	−0.50	0.63	No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the report	18	−3.9%	−3.8%	56%	8	−0.44	0.67	No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the trade	18	−3.3%	−1.8%	50%	8	−0.25	0.81	No reliable evidence

“Average vs S&P 500” is the stock’s return including dividends minus the index’s over the same dates, from the close on the first trading day after the report, or from the close on the trade date. Only windows that have finished are counted. For sales, a negative figure means the stock lagged after it was sold, so selling was the right call (green). “Went the right way” is the share of purchases that beat the index, or of sales that trailed it. The t-statistic uses one average per year of reports, because one person’s trades bunch into the same stock and weeks, and needs trades in at least four different years; the p-value comes from the t distribution with that number of years (with four years, a t of 2 has p = 0.14). “Some evidence” means p under 5%, “strong evidence” p under 1% over at least six years.

Companies traded

Company	Title on the latest filing	Purchases	Sales	First report	Latest report
Kimberly-Clark KMB	Pres Global Brands & Inno	0	16	February 1, 2012	February 11, 2019
The Hershey Company HSY	—	0	2	June 2, 2017	May 24, 2019

Trades and what followed

Moves are against the S&P 500; green means the trade went the insider’s way.

Reported	Traded	Company	Trade	Value	3 months after report	12 months after report	12 months after trade
May 24, 2019	May 23, 2019	HSY	Sale	$652,150	+21.3%	−4.7%	−4.7%
February 11, 2019	February 8, 2019	KMB	Sale	$704,703	+7.1%	+2.9%	+4.3%
August 16, 2018	August 16, 2018	KMB	Sale	$756,256	−2.7%	+17.5%	+20.0%
June 2, 2017	May 31, 2017	HSY	Sale	$810,880	−10.0%	−34.4%	−34.2%
February 22, 2017	February 17, 2017	KMB	Sale	$4,782,254	−6.2%	−31.2%	−28.2%
August 8, 2016	August 4, 2016	KMB	Sale	$400,400	−9.9%	−19.2%	−20.6%
February 23, 2016	February 22, 2016	KMB	Sale	$854,187	−11.7%	−20.5%	−18.5%
April 23, 2015	April 22, 2015	KMB	Sale	$798,560	+2.2%	+15.9%	+20.2%
November 12, 2014	November 7, 2014	KMB	Sale	$933,787	−5.2%	+5.0%	+3.2%
February 26, 2014	February 24, 2014	KMB	Sale	$1,158,217	−1.0%	−7.3%	−9.1%
January 29, 2014	January 28, 2014	KMB	Sale	$4,027,150	−2.1%	−6.4%	−5.5%
April 30, 2013	April 26, 2013	KMB	Sale	$2,093,694	−10.7%	−10.2%	−9.1%
April 24, 2013	April 22, 2013	KMB	Sale	$827,189	−11.2%	−10.8%	−16.7%
February 1, 2013	January 31, 2013	KMB	Sale	$2,542,688	+9.3%	+2.5%	+4.9%
November 15, 2012	November 13, 2012	KMB	Sale	$1,572,204	−2.9%	−3.0%	+1.2%
November 2, 2012	October 25, 2012	KMB	Sale	$1,468,649	+3.0%	+8.5%	+7.1%
May 10, 2012	May 8, 2012	KMB	Sale	$875,873	+0.9%	+11.3%	+13.5%
February 1, 2012	January 31, 2012	KMB	Sale	$1,487,107	+4.6%	+13.2%	+12.8%

Open-market purchases and sales of at least $10,000 in companies we cover, from SEC Form 4 filings; sales made under a pre-set Rule 10b5-1 plan are not shown. “Not yet” means the window has not finished or the share price was under $5 at entry. These are the shares’ moves after each trade: they say nothing about why Palmer Anthony J. traded and do not suggest the use of non-public information. How every insider compares · the insider trading backtest.