Brannemo Tomas: insider trades

Officer at 2 companies we cover. No open-market purchases and 13 sales not made under a pre-set plan, reported from March 4, 2015 to November 5, 2020.

What happened after Brannemo Tomas’s sales?

After their sales, the shares moved +9.7% against the index over 12 months on average (a negative figure means selling was the right call); 39% trailed it.

With 296 insiders tested, some will look skilled or unskilled by chance alone: when we replaced each insider’s stocks with random companies bought on the same days, about 5.7 cleared the bar ahead and 23.3 behind. One record on its own proves little.

Trade by trade

Brannemo Tomas: trades against the S&P 500 afterwards
Measured	Trades counted	Average vs S&P 500	Median	Went the right way	Years	t-statistic	p-value	Evidence
Purchases, 3 months after the report	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	Not enough years
Purchases, 6 months after the report	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the report	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the trade	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	Not enough years
Sales, 3 months after the report	13	+4.1%	+4.5%	39%	6	1.34	0.24	No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the report	13	+9.7%	+4.5%	39%	6	2.02	0.099	No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the trade	13	+9.7%	+5.1%	31%	6	1.88	0.12	No reliable evidence

“Average vs S&P 500” is the stock’s return including dividends minus the index’s over the same dates, from the close on the first trading day after the report, or from the close on the trade date. Only windows that have finished are counted. For sales, a negative figure means the stock lagged after it was sold, so selling was the right call (green). “Went the right way” is the share of purchases that beat the index, or of sales that trailed it. The t-statistic uses one average per year of reports, because one person’s trades bunch into the same stock and weeks, and needs trades in at least four different years; the p-value comes from the t distribution with that number of years (with four years, a t of 2 has p = 0.14). “Some evidence” means p under 5%, “strong evidence” p under 1% over at least six years.

Companies traded

Company	Title on the latest filing	Purchases	Sales	First report	Latest report
Xylem Inc. XYL	Senior Vice President	0	12	March 4, 2015	February 26, 2019
Johnson Controls JCI	VP & President, BTS EMEALA	0	1	November 5, 2020	November 5, 2020

Trades and what followed

Moves are against the S&P 500; green means the trade went the insider’s way.

Reported	Traded	Company	Trade	Value	3 months after report	12 months after report	12 months after trade
November 5, 2020	November 4, 2020	JCI	Sale	$617,043	+6.7%	+37.5%	+41.9%
February 26, 2019	February 26, 2019	XYL	Sale	$196,706	−2.8%	−1.5%	−0.9%
February 22, 2019	February 21, 2019	XYL	Sale	$41,612	−3.4%	−0.9%	−2.3%
March 6, 2018	March 5, 2018	XYL	Sale	$860,561	−6.7%	−3.0%	+0.1%
February 27, 2018	February 27, 2018	XYL	Sale	$87,948	−4.6%	−1.5%	−2.5%
February 23, 2018	February 21, 2018	XYL	Sale	$21,991	−4.4%	−1.1%	−4.6%
December 20, 2017	December 19, 2017	XYL	Sale	$153,115	+15.8%	+2.4%	+1.5%
May 8, 2017	May 4, 2017	XYL	Sale	$709,018	+12.0%	+25.7%	+24.1%
February 28, 2017	February 27, 2017	XYL	Sale	$39,681	+4.5%	+35.8%	+38.6%
August 19, 2016	August 17, 2016	XYL	Sale	$426,711	+4.6%	+4.5%	+5.1%
March 10, 2016	March 9, 2016	XYL	Sale	$302,903	+15.7%	+8.1%	+5.3%
March 3, 2016	March 1, 2016	XYL	Sale	$31,113	+14.0%	+7.6%	+8.8%
March 4, 2015	March 2, 2015	XYL	Sale	$22,140	+2.5%	+12.0%	+11.2%

Open-market purchases and sales of at least $10,000 in companies we cover, from SEC Form 4 filings; sales made under a pre-set Rule 10b5-1 plan are not shown. “Not yet” means the window has not finished or the share price was under $5 at entry. These are the shares’ moves after each trade: they say nothing about why Brannemo Tomas traded and do not suggest the use of non-public information. How every insider compares · the insider trading backtest.