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Susan A. Davis: stock trades

Representative for CA (at large). Value ranges as filed, never exact figures.

Activity

Top sectors

Trades in companies we cover, by the company’s sector. Green is purchases, red is sales.

  • Technology26% of trades 13
  • Consumer Discretionary20% of trades 10
  • Industrials18% of trades 9
  • Financials10% of trades 5
  • Communication Services8% of trades 4
  • Consumer Staples8% of trades 4

Would copying Susan A. Davis’s trades have beaten the S&P 500?

Copying Susan A. Davis’s disclosed holdings (starting from the holdings in each annual disclosure report once it was published, then adding purchases and taking off sales as each trade report became public, sized by the amounts reported, with call options counted as the stock until they expired) would have turned $10,000 on May 8, 2015 into $37,612 by November 2, 2026, against $43,192 in the S&P 500: +12.3% a year against +13.6%, with a beta of 1.18. Selling each purchase after 6 months instead would have made +9.9% a year. Six months after each report, the average share purchase was +1.2% against the S&P 500 (median −1.1%), and 48% beat it, well within what luck alone would produce. Measured from the trade date instead, the member’s own timing, the average was +2.8%. Reports arrived a median of 31 days after the trade.

$0$20.0k$40.0k 201520172019202120232025 $43.2k$37.6k
Copying Susan A. DavisS&P 500, buy and hold $10,000 copying Susan A. Davis’s disclosed holdings from May 8, 2015, before costs and taxes, marked weekly. Each annual report resets the copy to the holdings it lists; each trade report then adds or reduces positions, sized by the middle of the amount band filed (a partial sale takes off its band but never more than half the position). Holdings before the first report in our records are unknown. Money not in a stock earns the Treasury bill rate.
MeasuredTrades countedAverage vs S&P 500MedianWent the right wayt-statisticEvidence
Purchases, 3 months after the report 27 +5.2% +4.9% 67% 1.71 No reliable evidence
Purchases, 6 months after the report 27 +1.2% −1.1% 48% 0.28 No reliable evidence
Purchases, 3 months after the trade 27 +3.5% +1.7% 52% 0.97 No reliable evidence
Purchases, 6 months after the trade 27 +2.8% +4.1% 63% 0.63 No reliable evidence
Sales, 6 months after the report 23 +10.1% +11.5% 30% 1.63 No reliable evidence
Return a year, copying
+12.3%
S&P 500, same dates
+13.6%
Yearly swing (S&P 500)
28% (18%)
Sharpe ratio (S&P 500)
0.47 (0.69)
Biggest drop (S&P 500)
−41% (−34%)
Market sensitivity (beta)
1.18

“Average vs S&P 500” is the stock’s return including dividends minus the index’s over the same dates. For sales, a negative figure means the stock lagged after it was sold, so selling was the right call (green). “Went the right way” is the share of purchases that beat the index, or of sales that trailed it. The t-statistic treats each trade as a separate bet; the Evidence label is stricter and uses one average per month of reports, because trades bunch together. Trades in companies we cover only. The averages count share trades; the copy portfolio also counts call options as the stock and sizes positions by the middle of each band filed. No trading costs or taxes. These are the stocks’ moves after each trade: they say nothing about why Susan A. Davis traded and do not suggest the use of non-public information. How every member compares.

Stocks traded

Every company we cover that appears in the reports. “Since first purchase” is the stock’s move from the close on the member’s first disclosed purchase to the latest close, against the S&P 500; it is not the member’s return.
RCLRoyal Caribbean Group 1$15,001–$50,000 4$4,004–$60,000 Mar 17, 2014 Feb 11, 2020 —
FTNTFortinet 3$31,003–$115,000 1$15,001–$50,000 Jun 29, 2017 Oct 28, 2020 ▲ 1572.1%+1312.7 pts vs S&P
ALKAlaska AIR Group, Inc. 2$16,002–$65,000 1$15,001–$50,000 Aug 25, 2017 Feb 11, 2020 ▼ 46.6%−301.3 pts vs S&P
GEGE Aerospace 0 3$31,003–$115,000 Jul 21, 2015 Nov 30, 2016 —
LUVSouthwest Airlines 2$16,002–$65,000 1$15,001–$50,000 Jul 21, 2015 Sep 29, 2020 —
QCOMQualcomm 1$1,001–$15,000 2$65,002–$150,000 Mar 31, 2015 Jun 29, 2017 ▲ 358.6%−18.1 pts vs S&P
SCHWCharles Schwab Corporation 0 3$17,003–$80,000 Oct 20, 2017 Jul 5, 2019 —
VSATViasat Inc 3$17,003–$80,000 0 Feb 11, 2020 Oct 28, 2020 ▲ 14.0%−132.7 pts vs S&P
AEGAegon LTD. 1$1,001–$15,000 1$1,001–$15,000 Nov 2, 2015 Jun 29, 2017 —
BIDUBaidu, Inc. 2$16,002–$65,000 0 Feb 11, 2020 Mar 16, 2020 —
CHKPCheck Point Software Technologies LTD 1$15,001–$50,000 1$15,001–$50,000 Mar 31, 2015 Aug 25, 2016 —
COSTCostco 0 2$30,002–$100,000 Dec 10, 2014 Nov 30, 2016 —
EXCExelon 2$2,002–$30,000 0 Mar 7, 2018 Mar 16, 2020 ▲ 138.0%−76.8 pts vs S&P
KBHKB Home 1$15,001–$50,000 1$15,001–$50,000 Apr 29, 2016 Nov 30, 2016 ▲ 323.4%−7.8 pts vs S&P
KRKroger 1$1,001–$15,000 1$1,001–$15,000 Aug 25, 2017 Oct 20, 2017 ▲ 281.2%+26.5 pts vs S&P
LEVILevi Strauss & Co 1$1,001–$15,000 1$1,001–$15,000 Mar 16, 2020 Sep 29, 2020 ▲ 90.2%−154.7 pts vs S&P
METAMeta Platforms 2$16,002–$65,000 0 Jan 11, 2019 Mar 16, 2020 ▲ 326.0%+100.5 pts vs S&P
VLOValero Energy 1$15,001–$50,000 1$15,001–$50,000 Jul 21, 2015 Aug 25, 2016 —
CSIQCanadian Solar Inc. 1$15,001–$50,000 0 Oct 28, 2020 Oct 28, 2020 ▼ 75.2%−224.9 pts vs S&P
FFord Motor Company 1$15,001–$50,000 0 Oct 28, 2020 Oct 28, 2020 ▲ 123.1%−26.5 pts vs S&P
ILMNIllumina, Inc. 1$15,001–$50,000 0 Jan 11, 2019 Jan 11, 2019 ▼ 24.1%−249.6 pts vs S&P

Trades in companies we cover

“Stock since trade” is the share price move from the close on the trade date to the latest close, with the gap to the S&P 500 beneath. It describes the stock, not what the member made. Click a column heading to sort.

Report
CSIQCanadian Solar Inc. Purchase$15,001 - $50,000 · Spouse Nov 30, 2020 Oct 28, 2020 ▼ 75.2%−224.9 pts vs S&P Filing
FFord Motor Company Purchase$15,001 - $50,000 · Spouse Nov 30, 2020 Oct 28, 2020 ▲ 123.1%−26.5 pts vs S&P Filing
FTNTFortinet Purchase$1,001 - $15,000 · Spouse Nov 30, 2020 Oct 28, 2020 ▲ 430.5%+280.9 pts vs S&P Filing
VSATViasat Inc Purchase$1,001 - $15,000 · Spouse Nov 30, 2020 Oct 28, 2020 ▲ 120.5%−29.1 pts vs S&P Filing
LEVILevi Strauss & Co Sale (full)$1,001 - $15,000 · Joint Oct 29, 2020 Sep 29, 2020 ▲ 100.9%−44.5 pts vs S&P Filing
LUVSouthwest Airlines Sale (full)$15,001 - $50,000 · Joint Oct 29, 2020 Sep 29, 2020 ▲ 27.3%−118.0 pts vs S&P Filing
VSATViasat Inc Purchase$1,001 - $15,000 · Spouse May 14, 2020 Apr 15, 2020 ▲ 83.5%−112.5 pts vs S&P Filing
BIDUBaidu, Inc. Purchase$1,001 - $15,000 · Spouse Apr 16, 2020 Mar 16, 2020 — Filing
EXCExelon Purchase$1,001 - $15,000 · Spouse Apr 16, 2020 Mar 16, 2020 ▲ 169.8%−75.1 pts vs S&P Filing
METAMeta Platforms Purchase$15,001 - $50,000 Apr 16, 2020 Mar 16, 2020 ▲ 319.5%+74.7 pts vs S&P Filing
FTNTFortinet Purchase$15,001 - $50,000 · Spouse Apr 16, 2020 Mar 16, 2020 ▲ 733.6%+488.8 pts vs S&P Filing
LEVILevi Strauss & Co Purchase$1,001 - $15,000 Apr 16, 2020 Mar 16, 2020 ▲ 90.2%−154.7 pts vs S&P Filing
ALKAlaska AIR Group, Inc. Sale (full)$15,001 - $50,000 · Spouse Mar 13, 2020 Feb 11, 2020 ▼ 40.4%−187.1 pts vs S&P Filing
BIDUBaidu, Inc. Purchase$15,001 - $50,000 · Spouse Mar 13, 2020 Feb 11, 2020 — Filing
FTNTFortinet Sale (partial)$15,001 - $50,000 · Spouse Mar 13, 2020 Feb 11, 2020 ▲ 437.9%+291.2 pts vs S&P Filing
RCLRoyal Caribbean Group Sale (partial)$1,001 - $15,000 Mar 13, 2020 Feb 11, 2020 ▲ 196.7%+49.9 pts vs S&P Filing
VSATViasat Inc Purchase$15,001 - $50,000 · Spouse Mar 13, 2020 Feb 11, 2020 ▲ 14.0%−132.7 pts vs S&P Filing
RCLRoyal Caribbean Group Sale (partial)$1,001 - $15,000 Nov 22, 2019 Oct 31, 2019 ▲ 210.1%+36.1 pts vs S&P Filing
SCHWCharles Schwab Corporation Sale (full)$15,001 - $50,000 · Spouse Jul 30, 2019 Jul 5, 2019 ▲ 140.4%−39.4 pts vs S&P Filing
METAMeta Platforms Purchase$1,001 - $15,000 Feb 7, 2019 Jan 11, 2019 ▲ 326.0%+100.5 pts vs S&P Filing
ILMNIllumina, Inc. Purchase$15,001 - $50,000 Feb 7, 2019 Jan 11, 2019 ▼ 24.1%−249.6 pts vs S&P Filing
ALKAlaska AIR Group, Inc. Purchase$1,001 - $15,000 · Spouse Jun 15, 2018 May 17, 2018 ▼ 31.8%−246.3 pts vs S&P Filing
SCHWCharles Schwab Corporation Sale (full)$1,001 - $15,000 · Spouse Mar 28, 2018 Mar 7, 2018 ▲ 79.8%−135.1 pts vs S&P Filing
EXCExelon Purchase$1,001 - $15,000 · Spouse Mar 28, 2018 Mar 7, 2018 ▲ 138.0%−76.8 pts vs S&P Filing
RCLRoyal Caribbean Group Sale (full)$1,001 - $15,000 Mar 28, 2018 Mar 7, 2018 ▲ 183.3%−31.5 pts vs S&P Filing
SCHWCharles Schwab Corporation Sale (full)$1,001 - $15,000 · Spouse Nov 16, 2017 Oct 20, 2017 ▲ 123.9%−111.9 pts vs S&P Filing
KRKroger Sale (full)$1,001 - $15,000 · Spouse Nov 16, 2017 Oct 20, 2017 ▲ 294.2%+58.5 pts vs S&P Filing
ALKAlaska AIR Group, Inc. Purchase$15,001 - $50,000 · Spouse Sep 26, 2017 Aug 25, 2017 ▼ 46.6%−301.3 pts vs S&P Filing
KRKroger Purchase$1,001 - $15,000 · Spouse Sep 26, 2017 Aug 25, 2017 ▲ 281.2%+26.5 pts vs S&P Filing
AEGAegon LTD. Sale (full)$1,001 - $15,000 · Spouse Jul 31, 2017 Jun 29, 2017 — Filing
FTNTFortinet Purchase$15,001 - $50,000 · Spouse Jul 31, 2017 Jun 29, 2017 ▲ 1572.1%+1312.7 pts vs S&P Filing
QCOMQualcomm Sale (full)$15,001 - $50,000 · Spouse Jul 31, 2017 Jun 29, 2017 ▲ 275.2%+15.8 pts vs S&P Filing
COSTCostco Sale (full)$15,001 - $50,000 Dec 29, 2016 Nov 30, 2016 ▲ 719.3%+419.6 pts vs S&P Filing
GEGE Aerospace Sale (full)$15,001 - $50,000 Dec 29, 2016 Nov 30, 2016 ▲ 137.8%−161.8 pts vs S&P Filing
KBHKB Home Sale (full)$15,001 - $50,000 · Spouse Dec 29, 2016 Nov 30, 2016 ▲ 260.9%−38.8 pts vs S&P Filing
CHKPCheck Point Software Technologies LTD Sale (full)$15,001 - $50,000 · Spouse Sep 27, 2016 Aug 25, 2016 ▲ 86.3%−220.3 pts vs S&P Filing
RCLRoyal Caribbean Group Sale (full)$1,001 - $15,000 Sep 27, 2016 Aug 25, 2016 ▲ 418.6%+112.0 pts vs S&P Filing
VLOValero Energy Sale (full)$15,001 - $50,000 · Joint Sep 27, 2016 Aug 25, 2016 ▲ 917.0%+610.4 pts vs S&P Filing
KBHKB Home Purchase$15,001 - $50,000 · Spouse May 19, 2016 Apr 29, 2016 ▲ 323.4%−7.8 pts vs S&P Filing
QCOMQualcomm Purchase$1,001 - $15,000 · Spouse Feb 22, 2016 Jan 25, 2016 ▲ 358.6%−18.1 pts vs S&P Filing
LUVSouthwest Airlines Purchase$1,001 - $15,000 Feb 22, 2016 Jan 25, 2016 ▲ 31.2%−345.4 pts vs S&P Filing
AEGAegon LTD. Purchase$1,001 - $15,000 · Spouse Nov 30, 2015 Nov 2, 2015 — Filing
GEGE Aerospace Sale (full)$1,001 - $15,000 · Joint Nov 30, 2015 Nov 2, 2015 ▲ 156.6%−171.0 pts vs S&P Filing
GEGE Aerospace Sale (full)$15,001 - $50,000 Aug 18, 2015 Jul 21, 2015 — Filing
LUVSouthwest Airlines Purchase$15,001 - $50,000 Aug 18, 2015 Jul 21, 2015 — Filing
VLOValero Energy Purchase$15,001 - $50,000 Aug 18, 2015 Jul 21, 2015 — Filing
CHKPCheck Point Software Technologies LTD Purchase$15,001 - $50,000 May 7, 2015 Mar 31, 2015 — Filing
QCOMQualcomm Sale (full)$50,001 - $100,000 May 7, 2015 Mar 31, 2015 — Filing
COSTCostco Sale (full)$15,001 - $50,000 Jan 14, 2015 Dec 10, 2014 — Filing
RCLRoyal Caribbean Group Purchase$15,001 - $50,000 May 19, 2016 Mar 17, 2014 — Filing

What happened to the stocks afterwards

Average of the stock’s return minus the S&P 500’s, across this member’s disclosed trade whose window is complete. Nothing here is a member’s profit.

AfterWindowAverage excessTypical (median)Beat the S&P 500TradesFrom the filing date
Purchases 30 days −0.1% +2.3% 50% 20 +2.8% (21)
Purchases 90 days +5.2% +6.6% 60% 20 +6.1% (21)
Sales 30 days −1.6%few trades +1.5% 53% 19 +3.4% (19)
Sales 90 days +2.6%few trades +7.1% 68% 19 +8.0% (19)

Excess return is the stock’s move minus the S&P 500’s over the same dates, measured from the close on the trade date, on closing prices adjusted for splits and dividends. Value ranges are wide, filings arrive up to 45 days late, trades by one member in one stock are not independent, and a stock’s move says nothing about what a member earned. A small average over a few trades is noise, not evidence. This is not investment advice. For sales, a positive figure means the stock went on to beat the market after the sale.

Filings

Holdings and net worth are not shown: members also file annual financial disclosure reports listing what they own, and those are not included here yet. We show only the trades they report.

Source: periodic transaction reports filed with the Clerk of the House of Representatives under the STOCK Act (Senate reports are not included yet). Members report trades by themselves, their spouses and dependent children. Amounts are the value ranges as filed, not exact figures, and a report can be filed up to 45 days after the trade, so the latest trades may not appear yet. Scanned paper reports are linked but not transcribed. By law (5 U.S.C. §13107) these reports may not be used for any commercial purpose other than by news and communications media for dissemination to the general public; we publish them free, as news.

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