ADT shares jumped 33.9% on 29 October 2026 after the home-security company agreed to be acquired by Thrive Holdings, the permanent-capital investment firm, in an all-cash transaction. The move is confirmed by an 8-K ADT filed the same morning: stockholders will receive $10.00 per share in cash, a 45.6% premium to the stock's unaffected closing price of $6.87 on 27 October 2026, and the filing values the business at $7.6 billion in equity and $15.3 billion including debt.
The reaction was large even by takeover standards. ADT closed at $9.92 against a previous close of $7.41, a move 11.9x the size of a typical trading day for the stock over the past year, where shares usually move 2.9% a day. Volume ran at 15.6x the 30-day average. Other specialised consumer-services companies we cover rose a median 0.3% the same day, while the S&P 500 fell 0.6%, underlining that the gain was specific to ADT rather than a sector-wide or market-wide move. It is the largest gain of its kind since 3 August 2020.
The terms of the Thrive Holdings offer
The agreement is structured as an all-cash deal, with financing commitments provided solely by funds managed by affiliates of Apollo Global Management, according to the filing. ADT's board approved the transaction unanimously, and the company said the deal is not subject to a financing condition. Closing is expected in the first quarter of 2027, pending approval by ADT stockholders and US antitrust clearance. Under the merger agreement, ADT may solicit rival offers for 30 days, a go-shop window running until 28 November 2026 with a possible 10-day extension for certain bidders; the company does not intend to disclose developments from that process unless required. ADT's third-quarter results, due 3 November 2026, will still be released, but the company will not take questions on the earnings call because of the pending transaction.
A close still below the offer price
ADT's close of $9.92 sits below the $10.00-a-share offer, a gap that typically reflects the market pricing in time value and completion risk on a deal not expected to close until the first quarter of 2027. The go-shop period, open until 28 November 2026, leaves open the chance of a competing bid or a revised offer before stockholders vote, which would account for some of that gap without implying the current terms are in doubt. Shares had also been climbing before the announcement; a report circulating the same morning linked recent gains to cost-saving measures tied to a shift of key systems to a cloud platform, framing part of the move as a continuation of existing momentum rather than solely the takeover news.
What the buyout means for our model value
Our discounted-cash-flow model has no visibility into deal mechanics and does not price the transaction itself; it is built from ADT's own cash-flow trends. Its base case assumes stage-one growth of 2.1%, in line with ADT's trailing revenue growth. Growth carries more weight than margin in the model: holding margin and the discount rate fixed, 5 percentage points of additional growth would raise model value 43.3%, while 5 points less growth would cut it −33.0%. A 1-point higher discount rate would lower model value −18.6%. These are model values under stated assumptions, not a comparison with the share price.
The next decision points
ADT reports third-quarter results on 3 November 2026, the first test of whether operating trends matched the assumptions behind this transaction, though the company will not hold a question-and-answer session. The go-shop period runs to 28 November 2026, with a possible 10-day extension for qualifying bidders, during which a rival proposal could emerge. ADT stockholders must then approve the deal, and the transaction needs US antitrust clearance before it can close, which the companies expect in the first quarter of 2027. Any of those steps breaking down, a competing bid, a stockholder rejection, or a regulatory block, would be the clearest way this move gets unwound.