ADT Inc. reports on Tuesday 3 November, before the market opens. The quarter will test a tension in the filings: revenue growth is decelerating while the company converts a large share of sales into free cash flow. Trailing-twelve-month revenue was $5.2 billion, up 2.1% on the year before.
Source: reported quarterly EPS and aggregated third-party estimates. Historical surprises are context, not a forecast.
View chart data
| Period | Reported EPS | Analysts' estimate |
|---|---|---|
| Sep '25 | $0.23 | $0.22 |
| Dec '25 | $0.23 | $0.22 |
| Mar '26 | $0.23 | $0.21 |
| Jun '26 | $0.23 | $0.22 |
The value hinges on growth more than margins
The analysts' average EPS estimate for the quarter is $0.23, in a range from $0.22 to $0.24. The average revenue estimate is $1.3 billion. For the full year, the analysts' average EPS estimate is $0.92, up 3.6% on last year based on 5 analysts, and that figure has risen 0.9% over the past 90 days. Of the analysts' recommendations, 2 are positive, 3 neutral and 1 negative.
Earnings surprise model
Our model estimates EPS could land above the analysts' average estimate by 2.6%. The estimated chance of an EPS beat is 75.0%, based on the last 4 quarters. The model shrinks the median recent surprise toward zero and uses a neutral prior for beat frequency; this small sample is a reference estimate, not company guidance.
ADT's record against estimates
ADT has beaten the analysts' average estimate in each of the last 4 quarters. Last quarter, EPS of $0.23 compared with an estimate of $0.22, above it by 3.1%.
Growth has slowed
Growth is slowing. The trailing revenue growth rate of 2.1% is down 1.2 percentage points on the rate a quarter earlier. Margins sit near the top of the company's range: the trailing operating margin is 25.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from a year earlier, and the trailing net margin is 11.9%. Net income over the twelve months was $612.8 million, down 1.6% on the year before.
Cash generation moves in the opposite direction from earnings. Operating cash flow over the twelve months was $2.2 billion, up 8.5% on the year before. Capital spending was $187.9 million, or 3.6% of revenue. Free cash flow, operating cash flow less capital spending, was $2.0 billion, up 7.7% on the year before. The free-cash-flow margin was 38.1%, up 2.0 percentage points from a year earlier.
Set against its own history, the cash conversion is rare while growth is common. The free-cash-flow margin of 38.1% is higher than 97% of the company's own past quarterly readings, which have ranged from 22.8% to 39.7%. The operating margin of 25.0% is higher than 76% of past readings (−0.5% to 26.3%). The twelve-month revenue growth rate of 2.1% is higher than only 37% of past readings (−21.2% to 23.0%).
Questions this report will answer
The report will reveal whether the slowdown in revenue growth continues, whether results land above or below the analysts' expectations set out above, and whether margins hold at the trailing levels reported here.
What ADT's share price implies against our model
Our model shows wide sensitivity to growth. Five percentage points lower growth would lower the value by 33.0%, while five percentage points higher would raise it by
