What has changed since then, and what that does to how companies are valued, matters for anyone holding growth stocks, a savings account or a mortgage.
Where the yield stands now
The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.0% on 29 October 2026, little changed from 5.0% in the prior session. A year earlier it stood at 4.1%.
The 2-year yield, more closely tied to near-term Federal Reserve policy, eased to 4.61% from 4.67%, compared with 3.59% a year ago.
The gap between the two, known as the 10-year minus 2-year spread, widened marginally to 0.38% from 0.37% the previous reading, though it remains narrower than the 0.50% recorded a year earlier.
Why it moved
That means the entire year's rise in the 10-year yield took place without any corresponding move in the Fed's own policy rate.
Inflation expectations embedded in the bond market, measured by the 10-year breakeven rate, stood at 2.34% on 30 October 2026, little changed from 2.35% the previous reading, and only modestly above the 2.29% recorded a year earlier. That stability suggests the year's rise in the 10-year yield is not mainly a story about expected inflation, since the market's own inflation gauge has barely shifted.
An equally plausible reading of the same numbers is that the modest widening in the 10-year minus 2-year spread reflects bond investors positioning for eventual Fed easing rather than for stronger growth or inflation; the spread's own direction of travel, narrower than a year ago, does not point decisively to either explanation.
What it means for value
A higher 10-year Treasury yield feeds directly into the discount rate used in cash-flow valuation models, because it is the closest market proxy for the risk-free rate against which every other investment's expected return gets measured. When the discount rate rises, the present value of cash flows expected further in the future falls more than the value of cash flows expected soon, because distant cash gets discounted at the higher rate over more years.
That mechanic weighs hardest on companies whose value depends on cash flows expected many years out, typically businesses still reinvesting heavily rather than distributing cash today. Our valuation models quantify how sensitive individual companies are to this input. Among the companies we cover, ULBI shows the largest sensitivity: its model value would change by −438.8% for a one-percentage-point rise in the discount rate. ANDE's model value would change by −187.7% for the same one-point move, and PK's by −147.7%.
These are model values under stated assumptions, not a comparison with the share price.
| Metric | Latest | Previous | A year ago |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10-year Treasury yield | 4.98% | 5.05% | 4.08% |
| 2-year Treasury yield | 4.61% | 4.67% | 3.59% |
| 10y–2y spread | 0.38% | 0.37% | 0.50% |
| Fed funds target (upper) | 4.00% | 4.00% | 4.00% |
| 30-year mortgage rate | 7.24% | 7.32% | 6.19% |
What it means for savers and borrowers
For borrowers tied to long-term rates, the picture looks different. The average 30-year mortgage rate stood at 7.2% on 29 October 2026, down from 7.3% a week earlier, but above the 6.2% recorded a year earlier.
What to watch next
Three scheduled data releases will show whether current levels hold. The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes its October jobs report on 6 November 2026, followed by October consumer price data on 10 November 2026. The Bureau of Economic Analysis follows with its Personal Income and Outlays report, covering October, on 25 November 2026. Each will give the bond market fresh information on growth and inflation, the two forces that typically set the direction of long-term yields.