Kraft Heinz shares rose 6.77% to $25.09 on 22 October 2026, from a previous close of $23.50. The move tracked the rest of the packaged-food group rather than the broader market: 7 covered peers posted a median gain of 4.5% the same session, 2.26 percentage points below Kraft Heinz’s own rise, while the S&P 500 fell 1.18% and the Nasdaq 100 fell 2.86%. Measured against the stock’s own two-year beta to the S&P 500 of 0.53x, the index alone would have been expected to pull the shares down by about 0.62%. The company made no announcement.
How the move compares
A 6.77% gain is 3.85 times the size of Kraft Heinz’s typical daily move over the past year, which has averaged 1.76%. The last time the shares rose by at least this much was on 23 October 2025.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Share price move | +6.77% |
| S&P 500, same session | -1.18% |
| Nasdaq 100, same session | -2.86% |
| Peer median move (7 companies) | +4.5% |
| Move vs peer median | +2.26pp |
| Typical daily move, past year | 1.76% |
| Move as a multiple of a typical day | 3.85x |
Volume and the shape of the day
The stock opened 0.94% above the previous close and traded in a range of 6.06% between its intraday high and low. Volume ran at 1.03 times the 30-day average, the heaviest since 8 October 2026.
The year so far
Over the past month, Kraft Heinz shares are up 5.46%, 6.04 percentage points ahead of the S&P 500 over the same stretch. Over the past year the picture looks different: the stock is up 5.5%, trailing the S&P 500 by 10.3 percentage points, and the shares still sit 7.71% below their 52-week high even after today’s rise, though they remain 7.9% above their 200-day average.
Earnings and guidance
Kraft Heinz’s most recent reported quarter, for the period ended 30 June 2026, delivered adjusted EPS of $0.56 against an average estimate of $0.53, a beat of 5.6%. That extends a run in which the company has beaten the average estimate in 4 of the last 8 reported quarters that carried one.
Guidance filed with the SEC on 5 August 2026 points to organic net sales down 0.5% to down 2.0% versus the prior year, constant-currency adjusted operating income down 16% to down 18%, and an adjusted gross profit margin down 10 basis points to down 50 basis points. It also calls for incremental investments of about $700 million and an effective tax rate on adjusted EPS of 24.5%. As the release put it, “Adjusted EPS (1)(2) is expected to be in the range of $2.03 to $2.09.”
Consensus for the current financial year sits at revenue of $24.63 billion, a decline of 1.2%, and EPS of $2.05, with that estimate down 0.7% over the past 90 days. For next financial year, consensus revenue is $24.69 billion, up 0.2%, with EPS of $2.08, down 0.8% over 90 days. For the quarter due on 4 November 2026, the average estimate is EPS of $0.42 on revenue of $6.08 billion. Of the 18 analysts covering the stock, 2 carry positive recommendations, 14 neutral and 4 negative, with the positive count up 1 from 90 days earlier.
Who’s been buying and selling
There were no open-market insider purchases or sales in the past 90 days. (Any trades executed under 10b5-1 plans are set in advance rather than timed to news.) Institutional filers numbered 1,037 as of 30 June 2026, with 141 new positions opened and 133 closed in the quarter, and the aggregate number of shares held by institutions up 2.7% quarter on quarter. Short interest stood at 10.8% of tradable shares as of 30 September 2026, equivalent to 4.27 days to cover, down 5.95% from the prior month.
What it means for value
Fundamentalytics’ two-stage discounted cash-flow model puts Kraft Heinz’s base-case value per share at $39.00 as of this session, with a lower case of $26.00 and a higher case of $57.00, against a price of $25.09. Solving the model for the growth rate that equates its output to the price implies cash-flow growth of -4.4% over the next five years, compared with delivered trailing-twelve-month revenue growth of -1.6%.
Margin moves the model more than growth does, point for point. Free cash flow margin reached 15.33% in the trailing twelve months, up 1.52 percentage points year over year; if that improvement held, model value would be 13.71% higher, while a one-percentage-point drop in FCF margin would cut it by 7.93%. On growth, lowering the base-case assumption of 2.0% by five points would cut model value by 30.60%, and raising it by five points would add 40.24%. A one-percentage-point higher discount rate would cut model value by 17.28%. These are model values under stated assumptions, not a comparison with the share price.
What comes next
Kraft Heinz is due to report results on 4 November 2026. That release will show whether the organic net sales and operating income ranges set out in August hold, and whether the free cash flow trend that has outpaced earnings this year, trailing-twelve-month free cash flow up 9.22% against net income up 35.57%, continues.