Xometry's first profitable quarter drives its sharpest rally in months

Xometry shares rose 16.5% on Tuesday to close at $111.29, up from the prior session's $95.49, after the online manufacturing marketplace reported its first quarter of GAAP profitability and raised its full-year revenue growth outlook.

Revenue for the quarter rose 39.7% year over year to a record $252.4 million, up 10.1% on the second quarter. Gross profit rose 37.0% to $98.7 million. Operating income reached $57,000, against an operating loss of −$11.1 million in the same quarter a year ago, operating margin up 6.1 percentage points. Net income came to $1.9 million, versus a net loss of −$11.6 million a year earlier, with net margin up 7.2 percentage points. Adjusted diluted earnings per share of 0.28 beat the analysts' consensus estimate of 0.19 by 50.2%, and revenue beat the consensus estimate of $235.6 million by 7.2%.

A rally well beyond a normal trading day

The size of Tuesday's move stands out even against Xometry's own volatile history. 16.5% is 3.1x the stock's typical daily swing over the past year, which has run at 5.3%, and shares traded at 3.1x their 30-day average volume. It is the largest gain in this direction since 7 May 2026. The broader market was comparatively calm: the S&P 500 rose 0.3% the same day, while the median move among other covered diversified support-services companies fell 0.3%, underlining that Tuesday's jump was specific to Xometry rather than a lift across the sector.

The first GAAP-profitable quarter

That shift matters for a business whose history, covered in full in Xometry's full company analysis, has consisted mostly of losses; reaching breakeven at the operating line was the quarter's headline change.

The case for caution

The profit itself was narrow: operating income of $57,000 on revenue of $252.4 million leaves little margin for error, and the improvement rests on operating leverage rather than a structural change in the cost base. Guidance for the fourth quarter points to growth below the third quarter's pace, and only 1 of the past eight quarters has shown faster year-over-year revenue growth than the latest one, suggesting deceleration has been more common than acceleration in Xometry's recent history. The next test is Xometry's fourth-quarter report, which will show whether revenue growth holds near the third quarter's pace and whether operating income remains positive.

Why Xometry's first profitable quarter reshapes its valuation math

Xometry's free-cash-flow margin over the trailing twelve months stands at 0.9%, up 3.0 percentage points from a year earlier, while revenue growth on the same basis runs at 36.8%, itself up 3.0 percentage points on the prior quarter. Our discounted cash flow model, which assumes 20.0% first-stage revenue growth as its base case, shows value falls 18.1% if growth were 5 percentage points lower and rises 23.1% if growth were 5 percentage points higher. Free-cash-flow margin carries a larger effect in the model: value falls 56.5% for every 1 percentage point drop in FCF margin. A discount rate 1 percentage point higher would send value down 12.2%. These are model values under stated assumptions, not a comparison with the share price.