AGNC Investment Corp. is a US-listed company in the mortgage REITs industry. Its financial year ends in December.
What company insiders, investment funds and members of Congress have been doing with the stock, from their own filings.
Agnc Investment has little or no product revenue yet. The diluted share count is up 22.0% on a year earlier, which dilutes existing holders.
Our model value for AGNC Investment is under review, so past values are not shown until it is resolved.
Source: 10-Q filed July 31, 2026 on SEC EDGAR · Financials · Valuation
Written from the company's filings and our models when each quarter's report arrives. Figures in older notes are as published at the time. Not investment advice.
Current signal Net margin expanding: TTM net margin reached 220.8%, up 112.3pp year over year.
Assembled from SEC-filed figures — the full workings are on this page and in our methodology. Observations, not recommendations.
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Third-party market data · may be delayed
Company announcements, filed results and changes that matter to shareholders.
No model value for AGNC Investment Corp. at the moment. Current status: data-quality checks not passed. Available reported financials are shown below.
The inputs used by the models below have passed source checks. Individual model values are available below and in the interactive valuator. Their differences are shown explicitly; the platform combined value and recommendation remain withheld.
We value AGNC Investment Corp. as a mortgage reit, with every model that fits that kind of business. Cost of equity 8.6%: the 10-year Treasury yield (4.9%) plus a beta of 0.81 times a 4.5% equity risk premium.
| Model | Value per share | In the combined value? |
|---|---|---|
| Residual income Book value plus the present value of returns above the cost of equity, fading over ten years. | ~$1.5 ~$0.7–$2.8 | Left out: out of range vs price (0.18x) |
| Justified price-to-book Book value times (return on equity - growth) / (cost of equity - growth): steady-state returns. | — | Does not apply: This model is withheld pending its input or assumption review. |
| Price-to-book vs peers Book value per share times peers' typical (harmonic-mean) price-to-book. | ~$2.8 ~$2.4–$4.8 | Included |
| Dividend discount (growing dividend) Today's dividend growing 2.5% a year, discounted at the cost of equity. | ~$24 ~$21–$29 | Included |
| Combined value Individual source-checked model scenarios are available. The platform combined value and recommendation remain withheld. | — | Combined value withheld. Review the individual models and their assumptions. |
Different models fail in different ways, so where several apply we average them rather than trust one. Peer-based models compare AGNC Investment Corp. with mortgage REITs in our coverage, using third-party market data. Model values are estimates under stated assumptions, updated as new filings arrive; not price targets or investment advice. How each model works.
Weak moat
How hard AGNC Investment's competitive advantage looks for rivals to wear away, judged from 10 years of its own filings: returns on capital, pricing power, profit durability, cash conversion and discipline.
Net income has been a median 0.6% of total assets over 10 years.
Net margin has been a median 92.6%; its worst year was -9.8%.
The diluted share count rose 114.8% over five years; stock-based pay has been a median 0.0% of revenue.
AI disruption exposure: Low. In this industry, the business rests on physical assets, regulated networks or products AI itself depends on.
| Fiscal year | EPS | Growth | Revenue | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | $1.56 | +4% | $1.5bn | +124% |
| Next | $1.44 | −7% | $1.9bn | +28% |
Next year's EPS estimate has moved −3.8% in 90 days, across 14 analysts.
The consensus EPS forecast for the current fiscal year is −1.5% on 90 days ago. In the last 30 days, 0 analysts raised AGNC Investment Corp.'s forecast and 1 cut it.
Average of analysts' published estimates (third-party data).
| Period | Current fiscal year | Next fiscal year |
|---|---|---|
| 90 days ago | $1.58 | $1.50 |
| 60 days ago | $1.58 | $1.50 |
| 30 days ago | $1.58 | $1.50 |
| 7 days ago | $1.56 | $1.45 |
| Now | $1.56 | $1.44 |
| Quarter to | Estimate | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sept 2026 | $0.37 | $0.37 | −0.7% |
| Jun 2026 | $0.38 | $0.40 | +4.9% |
| Mar 2026 | $0.37 | $0.42 | +14.4% |
| Dec 2025 | $0.37 | $0.35 | −5.6% |
Adjusted EPS as companies report it, against the average analyst estimate.
| Calendar year | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 to date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return | ||||||
| AGNC | +5% | −22% | +10% | +9% | +35% | −9% |
| Industry peers (median) | +26% | −21% | +17% | +3% | +6% | −21% |
| S&P 500 | +29% | −18% | +26% | +25% | +18% | +11% |
| Months that ended higher | ||||||
| AGNC | 58% | 42% | 42% | 67% | 83% | 46% |
| S&P 500 | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 75% | 46% |
| Largest fall from a high during the year | ||||||
| AGNC | −18% | −48% | −37% | −11% | −21% | −24% |
| S&P 500 | −5% | −25% | −10% | −8% | −19% | −9% |
Worst fall since November 2, 2015: 55% from June 8, 2021 to October 10, 2022. Getting back needed a 120% gain, reached on November 5, 2025, 1122 days after the low.
| Results released | Next day | S&P 500 next day | 5 days | 21 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 19, 2026 | +0.9% | +0.8% | +0.7% | — |
| July 20, 2026 | −3.9% | +0.7% | −5.2% | −1.6% |
| April 20, 2026 | +0.1% | −0.9% | +1.8% | −6.0% |
| January 26, 2026 | +2.7% | +0.9% | −4.8% | −3.8% |
| October 20, 2025 | +0.6% | +1.0% | +3.1% | +2.4% |
| July 21, 2025 | +1.3% | +0.2% | +4.6% | +5.2% |
| April 21, 2025 | +1.3% | +0.2% | +8.2% | +11.7% |
| April 10, 2025 | −6.3% | −2.7% | −6.4% | +2.4% |
| January 27, 2025 | +2.0% | −0.6% | +4.0% | +9.9% |
| October 21, 2024 | −5.6% | −0.2% | −9.1% | −7.6% |
| July 22, 2024 | +1.0% | +0.9% | −1.2% | +0.2% |
| April 22, 2024 | +2.4% | +2.1% | +2.3% | +9.4% |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved November 1, 2026.
| Period | Revenue (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY17 Q4 | $844M |
| FY18 Q1 | $1.2B |
| FY18 Q2 | $1.5B |
| FY18 Q3 | $1.4B |
| FY18 Q4 | $229M |
| FY19 Q1 | $71M |
| FY19 Q2 | -$664M |
| FY19 Q3 | -$910M |
| FY19 Q4 | $771M |
| FY20 Q1 | -$1.9B |
| FY20 Q2 | -$745M |
| FY20 Q3 | -$77M |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved November 1, 2026.
| Period | Revenue growth, TTM YoY |
|---|---|
| FY16 Q4 | 11.7% |
| FY17 Q1 | 1110.1% |
| FY17 Q3 | 370.9% |
| FY17 Q4 | 15.9% |
| FY18 Q1 | -23.6% |
| FY18 Q2 | -13.7% |
| FY18 Q3 | -3.7% |
| FY18 Q4 | -72.9% |
| FY19 Q1 | -94.0% |
| FY19 Q4 | 236.7% |
| FY20 Q2 | -12.2% |
| FY20 Q3 | 91.5% |
| Fiscal year | 2009 Dec 2009 | 2010 Dec 2010 | 2011 Dec 2011 | 2012 Dec 2012 | 2013 Dec 2013 | 2014 Dec 2014 | 2015 Dec 2015 | 2016 Dec 2016 | 2017 Dec 2017 | 2018 Dec 2018 | 2019 Dec 2019 | LTM Sept 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income | ||||||||||||
| Revenue | 130 | 307 | 850 | 1,440 | 1,440 | −92 | 354 | 728 | 844 | 229 | 771 | −77 |
| Net income | 119 | 288 | 770 | 1,277 | 1,259 | −233 | 215 | 623 | 771 | 129 | 688 | −170 |
| Diluted EPS | $3.39 | $3.94 | $2.51 | $4.17 | $3.28 | −$0.72 | $0.54 | $1.79 | $2.04 | $0.21 | $1.16 | −$0.31 |
| Growth (year on year) | ||||||||||||
| Revenue | — | +136.0% | +176.9% | +69.4% | 0.0% | −106.4% | — | +105.6% | +15.9% | −72.9% | +236.7% | — |
| Net income | — | +142.8% | +167.4% | +65.8% | −1.4% | −118.5% | — | +189.8% | +23.8% | −83.3% | +433.3% | — |
| Diluted EPS | — | +16.4% | −36.4% | +66.1% | −21.3% | −122.0% | — | +231.5% | +14.0% | −89.7% | +452.4% | — |
| Margins | ||||||||||||
| Net margin | 91.2% | 93.8% | 90.6% | 88.7% | 87.4% | 253.3% | 60.7% | 85.6% | 91.4% | 56.3% | 89.2% | 220.8% |
| Cash flow | ||||||||||||
| Cash from operations | 93 | 233 | 1,070 | 2,321 | 2,501 | 1,622 | 1,428 | 1,352 | 1,260 | 1,113 | 1,180 | 1,710 |
| Stock-based pay | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 13 | 17 |
| Balance sheet | ||||||||||||
| Cash | 203 | 173 | 1,367 | 2,430 | 2,143 | 1,720 | 1,110 | 1,208 | 1,046 | 921 | 831 | 857 |
| Total debt | 0 | 73 | 54 | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Net debt (negative = net cash) | −203 | −100 | −1,313 | −2,430 | −2,143 | −1,720 | −1,110 | −1,208 | −1,046 | −921 | −831 | −857 |
| Diluted shares | — | — | 307m | 304m | 379m | 353m | 349m | 332m | 359m | 441m | 541m | 551m |
| Returned to shareholders | ||||||||||||
| Dividends | 80 | 173 | 664 | 1,415 | 1,659 | 1,094 | 902 | 799 | 795 | 974 | 1,139 | 1,024 |
| Buybacks | — | 0 | 0 | 77 | 856 | 74 | 285 | 116 | 0 | 0 | 103 | 291 |
| Total returned | 80 | 173 | 664 | 1,492 | 2,515 | 1,168 | 1,187 | 915 | 795 | 974 | 1,242 | 1,315 |
| Quarter | 2018 Q4 Dec 2018 | 2019 Q1 Mar 2019 | 2019 Q2 Jun 2019 | 2019 Q3 Sept 2019 | 2019 Q4 Dec 2019 | 2020 Q1 Mar 2020 | 2020 Q2 Jun 2020 | 2020 Q3 Sept 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income | ||||||||
| Revenue | −785 | 284 | −424 | 15 | 896 | −2,398 | 742 | 683 |
| Net income | −804 | 265 | −444 | −4 | 871 | −2,421 | 718 | 662 |
| Diluted EPS | −$1.95 | $0.47 | −$0.85 | −$0.03 | $1.56 | −$4.46 | $1.24 | $1.15 |
| Growth (year on year) | ||||||||
| Revenue | −293.3% | −35.7% | −236.3% | −94.3% | — | −944.4% | — | +>999% |
| Net income | −308.8% | −37.5% | −251.5% | −101.9% | — | <−999% | — | — |
| Diluted EPS | −303.1% | −55.7% | −221.4% | −106.7% | — | <−999% | — | — |
| Margins | ||||||||
| Net margin | 102.4% | 93.3% | 104.7% | −26.7% | 97.2% | 101.0% | 96.8% | 96.9% |
| Cash flow | ||||||||
| Cash from operations | 273 | 329 | 235 | 243 | 373 | 347 | 429 | 561 |
| Stock-based pay | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
| Manager | Value | Shares | Share of 13F value | Shares QoQ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blackrock, Inc. | $704M | 64.6M | 13.6% | ▲ 6.9% |
| Vanguard Capital Management LLC | $562M | 51.6M | 10.8% | ▲ 4.4% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC | $503M | 46.1M | 9.7% | ▲ 2.7% |
| UBS Group AG | $298M | 27.3M | 5.7% | ▲ 18.3% |
| Geode Capital Management, LLC | $267M | 24.5M | 5.1% | ▲ 17.2% |
| State Street Corp | $227M | 20.6M | 4.4% | ▲ 8.2% |
| Norges Bank | $169M | 15.5M | 3.2% | — |
| Equity Investment Corp | $106M | 9.7M | 2.0% | ▲ 0.4% |
| Victory Capital Management Inc | $95.7M | 8.8M | 1.8% | ▲ 17.5% |
| Charles Schwab Investment Management Inc | $88.8M | 8.1M | 1.7% | ▲ 5.6% |
| Northern Trust Corp | $81.8M | 7.5M | 1.6% | ▲ 6.1% |
| Vanguard Fiduciary Trust Co | $79.1M | 7.3M | 1.5% | ▲ 5.6% |
From Form 13F filings with the SEC ( quarterly data sets), as reported by each manager for June 30, 2026 and filed up to 45 days later. 13F reports cover long US-listed positions of managers above $100M only, so this is not AGNC Investment Corp.'s complete shareholder register. Values are as reported by the filers ; 1 inconsistently scaled filing rows were excluded.
| Insider | Date | Trade | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Federico Peter J Director, President, CEO, CIO | October 27, 2026 | Sell pre-set plan | 67,794 | $8.77 | $594,553 |
| Federico Peter J Director, President, CEO, CIO | October 26, 2026 | Sell pre-set plan | 67,794 | $8.87 | $601,333 |
| Federico Peter J Director, President, CEO, CIO | October 23, 2026 | Sell pre-set plan | 67,794 | $8.89 | $602,689 |
| Bell Bernice EVP, CFO | August 19, 2026 | Sell | 10,000 | $11.05 | $110,500 |
| Bell Bernice EVP, CFO | August 19, 2026 | Sell | 5,000 | $11.10 | $55,500 |
| Bell Bernice EVP, CFO | July 28, 2026 | Sell | 5,000 | $11.00 | $55,000 |
| Bell Bernice EVP, CFO | May 12, 2026 | Sell | 10,000 | $10.79 | $107,900 |
| Blank Donna Director | May 6, 2026 | Sell | 22,000 | $10.78 | $237,160 |
| Mullings Paul E Director | May 4, 2026 | Sell | 6,800 | $10.74 | $73,032 |
| Federico Peter J Director, President, CEO, CIO | April 28, 2026 | Sell pre-set plan | 64,412 | $11.08 | $713,685 |
| Federico Peter J Director, President, CEO, CIO | April 27, 2026 | Sell pre-set plan | 64,411 | $11.03 | $710,453 |
| Federico Peter J Director, President, CEO, CIO | April 24, 2026 | Sell pre-set plan | 64,411 | $10.91 | $702,724 |
From insiders' Form 4 filings with the SEC. Excludes awards, option exercises and shares withheld for tax. "Pre-set plan" means the filing marks the trade as made under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. See every insider trade since five years ago, on a price chart.
No trades in AGNC Investment Corp. disclosed in the last 12 months; 6 earlier trades on record.
Next expected around January 25, 2027 estimated from the company's past filing pattern, not announced
| Data | Last updated | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Share price | Exchange closing prices | |
| Financial statements | SEC 10-K and 10-Q filings | |
| News and updates | Company releases and SEC 8-K filings | |
| Analyst estimates | Aggregated analyst estimates | |
| Valuation and scores | Our models, from the filed figures |
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