Avalo Therapeutics, Inc.: what the price is pricing in

There is no current cash flow reading for Avalo Therapeutics, Inc.: its latest is from June 30, 2019. Switch lens below to see the other readings and how trading the gap would have done.

No published rating for Avalo Therapeutics, Inc.: data-quality checks not passed. The readings below run our models backwards for research and show how trading the gap would have done; they are not a valuation or a rating. The valuation page shows the models and their status.

What growth in cash flow is the price paying for?

No current reading. The latest is from June 30, 2019: the figures this lens needs have not been filed recently enough (or no longer apply), so there is no position this quarter.

Quarters with a position22 long, 0 short, since March 31, 2019

Beat the S&P 5000 of 20.0% of quarters held

Strategy against the index−47.8%cumulative; worst fall -47.8%

Over time

The growth in owner earnings (free cash flow after stock-based pay) that would justify the share price in our discounted-cash-flow model, against the growth the model itself assumes from the company's record.

Growth our model assumes Growth the price implies Long quarter Short quarter. Lower panel: the share price at each quarter end, adjusted for later share splits and spin-offs (the table below gives the price as traded).

Skill or luck?

In plain English: With only 2 quarters of positions, Avalo Therapeutics, Inc.'s own record is too short to tell skill from luck. The results across all companies on the priced-in page are the better guide.

Positions	Quarters	Beat the S&P 500	Average vs S&P 500, a quarter	Typical (median), a quarter	A year	Confidence (t)	Evidence
Longs	2	0.0%	−26.2%	−26.2%	−72.7%	—	Too few quarters
Shorts	0	—	—	—	—	—	—
All positions	2	0.0%	−26.2%	−26.2%	−72.7%	—	Too few quarters

Each position is measured against the S&P 500 over the same quarter: a long earns the stock's return minus the index's, a short the index's minus the stock's. "A year" compounds the per-quarter results. Evidence: strong at a t-statistic of 2 or more, some from 1.5; "worse" when the result is that far below zero; one company's history is a small sample, so read these alongside the results across all companies.

Every quarter (2)

From	Price paid	Growth the price implies	Growth our model assumes	Position	AVTX	S&P 500
June 30, 2019	$5.44	-30.0%*	4.0%	Long	−39.5%	+1.8%
March 31, 2019	$5.84	-22.8%	4.0%	Long	−6.8%	+4.2%

Price paid: the closing price that day as traded, before any later share split. * At the edge of the range we solve for.

What profit margin is the price paying for?

No current reading. The latest is from September 30, 2019: the figures this lens needs have not been filed recently enough (or no longer apply), so there is no position this quarter.

Quarters with a position21 long, 1 short, since March 31, 2019

Beat the S&P 5000 of 20.0% of quarters held

Strategy against the index−59.8%cumulative; worst fall -59.8%

Over time

The owner-earnings margin (free cash flow after stock pay, as a share of revenue) the price requires at our model's growth, against the margin the company has delivered over three years.

Margin delivered Margin the price implies Long quarter Short quarter. Lower panel: the share price at each quarter end, adjusted for later share splits and spin-offs (the table below gives the price as traded).

Skill or luck?

Positions	Quarters	Beat the S&P 500	Average vs S&P 500, a quarter	Typical (median), a quarter	A year	Confidence (t)	Evidence
Longs	1	0.0%	−11.1%	−11.1%	−37.5%	—	Too few quarters
Shorts	1	0.0%	−54.8%	−54.8%	−95.8%	—	Too few quarters
All positions	2	0.0%	−33.0%	−33.0%	−83.9%	—	Too few quarters

Every quarter (2)

From	Price paid	Margin the price implies	Margin delivered	Position	AVTX	S&P 500
September 30, 2019	$3.29	18.6%	-35.0%	Short	+63.8%	+9.0%
March 31, 2019	$5.84	3.7%	17.5%	Long	−6.8%	+4.2%

Price paid: the closing price that day as traded, before any later share split.

How the test works

At each quarter end since March 2010 we rebuild the models from Avalo Therapeutics, Inc.'s quarters ending at least 90 days earlier (and no more than 200 days before that), using the figures as later filed, including any restatement, and value them at that day's close, adjusted for later share splits and spin-offs so that price and share count are on the same basis. A wide enough gap is a long or a short for one quarter (growth 10 points; margin and return on equity 5 points; a PEG under 0.75 or over 3), measured on total return against the S&P 500. The rules were set before the test. No trading or borrowing costs; today's list of companies. Not investment advice. All companies and the results across them.

Compare with peers

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Figures from Avalo Therapeutics, Inc.'s SEC filings (10-K and 10-Q), retrieved November 1, 2026. How we read and check them: methodology and data sources. Not investment advice. Back to Avalo Therapeutics, Inc.