Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. is a US-listed company in the property & casualty insurance industry. Its financial year ends in December.
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~$24
Valuation models combined (5)
Base case. Range ~$19–$27. Weighted average of 5 models (residual income, justified price-to-book, price-to-book vs return on equity (peers), price-to-book vs peers, forward price-to-earnings vs peers), the residual income counting double.
Overvalued
The price is above our entire value range; our base value is 28% below it.
Price used: $33.95, November 2, 2026
Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. valuation: adjust assumptions and compare models →
What company insiders, investment funds and members of Congress have been doing with the stock, from their own filings.
Revenue for the twelve months to June 2026 was $615m, up 25.0% on a year earlier, slower than the 27.7% growth a quarter earlier. That growth ranks 8 of 44 among the property & casualty insurance companies we cover. Our cash-flow model value is $23.78 a share, against a share price of $34.31.
Source: 10-Q filed August 3, 2026 on SEC EDGAR · Financials · Valuation
Written from the company's filings and our models when each quarter's report arrives. Figures in older notes are as published at the time. Not investment advice.
Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc.'s trailing-twelve-month revenue grew 25.0% year on year, with a free-cash-flow margin of 53.5%. Where it stands out: revenue growth of 25.0% ranks 9 of 48 property & casualty insurance companies we cover.
Current signal Free cash flow diverging from earnings: TTM free cash flow fell 1.3% while net income grew 25.7%: a 27pp divergence.
Assembled from SEC-filed figures — the full workings are on this page and in our methodology. Observations, not recommendations.
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Company announcements, filed results and changes that matter to shareholders.
We value Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. as an insurer, with every model that fits that kind of business. Cost of equity 7.6%: the 10-year Treasury yield (4.9%) plus a beta of 0.59 times a 4.5% equity risk premium.
| Model | Value per share | In the combined value? |
|---|---|---|
| Residual income Book value plus the present value of returns above the cost of equity, fading over ten years. | ~$26 ~$17–$43 | Primary model, counts double |
| Justified price-to-book Book value times (return on equity - growth) / (cost of equity - growth): steady-state returns. | ~$27 ~$22–$35 | Included |
| Price-to-book vs return on equity (peers) The price-to-book that peers with this return on equity trade on, from a line fitted across peers. | ~$23 ~$13–$33 | Included |
| Price-to-book vs peers Book value per share times peers' typical (harmonic-mean) price-to-book. | ~$19 ~$15–$31 | Included |
| Forward price-to-earnings vs peers Next year's consensus earnings per share times peers' typical (harmonic-mean) forward price-to-earnings. Uses analysts' consensus estimates (third-party data), not our forecasts. | ~$25 ~$22–$31 | Included |
| Dividend discount (two-stage) Dividends for five years at the growth the business can fund, then a steady payout and growth. | — | Does not apply: pays no regular dividend |
| Combined value Weighted average of the models that apply: the primary model (residual income) counts double. Models more than 5x or less than 0.2x the share price, or more than 3x away from the other models' median, are left out. | ~$24 ~$19–$27 | 5 models |
Different models fail in different ways, so where several apply we average them rather than trust one. Peer-based models compare Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. with property, casualty and specialty insurers in our coverage, using third-party market data. Model values are estimates under stated assumptions, updated as new filings arrive; not price targets or investment advice. How each model works.
Not assessed: fewer than five years of comparable figures in the filings. AI disruption exposure for this industry: Medium.
Next results: November 3, 2026, before the open. Analysts expect revenue of $178m and EPS of $0.51 (range $0.47 to $0.56) for the quarter.
| Fiscal year | EPS | Growth | Revenue | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | $2.01 | +22% | $683m | +24% |
| Next | $2.45 | +22% | $821m | +20% |
Next year's EPS estimate has moved +1.3% in 90 days, across 7 analysts.
The consensus EPS forecast for the current fiscal year is +0.9% on 90 days ago. In the last 30 days, 1 analyst raised Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc.'s forecast and 0 cut it.
Average of analysts' published estimates (third-party data).
| Period | Current fiscal year | Next fiscal year |
|---|---|---|
| 90 days ago | $2.00 | $2.42 |
| 60 days ago | $2.01 | $2.42 |
| 30 days ago | $2.01 | $2.45 |
| 7 days ago | $2.01 | $2.45 |
| Now | $2.01 | $2.45 |
| Quarter to | Estimate | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2026 | $0.47 | $0.48 | +1.8% |
| Mar 2026 | $0.41 | $0.48 | +15.7% |
| Dec 2025 | $0.44 | $0.47 | +6.0% |
| Sept 2025 | $0.41 | $0.47 | +15.2% |
Adjusted EPS as companies report it, against the average analyst estimate.
Last 12 months +41.7%
| Part | Then | Now | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (last 12 months) | $492m | $615m | +25.0% |
| Net margin | 10.1% | 10.1% | +0.5% |
| P/E multiple | 16.3x | 18.3x | +12.2% |
| Share count | 34m | 34m | +0.5% |
Biggest factor: revenue.
| Calendar year | 2025 | 2026 to date |
|---|---|---|
| Return | ||
| BOW | −20% | +19% |
| Industry peers (median) | +9% | +10% |
| S&P 500 | +18% | +11% |
| Months that ended higher | ||
| BOW | 42% | 73% |
| S&P 500 | 75% | 46% |
| Largest fall from a high during the year | ||
| BOW | −44% | −25% |
| S&P 500 | −19% | −9% |
Worst fall since May 23, 2024: 49% from March 28, 2025 to March 19, 2026. Getting back needed a 97% gain, and the shares have not yet recovered.
| Results released | Next day | S&P 500 next day | 5 days | 21 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 3, 2026 | +9.4% | +3.3% | +9.4% | +9.9% |
| May 5, 2026 | +6.2% | +2.2% | +19.8% | +4.8% |
| February 24, 2026 | +5.5% | +1.6% | +0.2% | −9.6% |
| November 4, 2025 | +6.4% | −0.8% | +10.0% | +6.7% |
| August 5, 2025 | −1.0% | +0.3% | −2.9% | −1.1% |
| May 6, 2025 | −6.4% | −0.4% | −6.8% | −12.8% |
| February 25, 2025 | +5.1% | −0.4% | +8.3% | +28.3% |
| November 5, 2024 | +5.1% | +3.7% | +14.9% | +27.4% |
| October 21, 2024 | −6.5% | −0.2% | −3.8% | +11.2% |
| August 14, 2024 | 0.0% | +2.0% | +13.0% | +6.5% |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved October 29, 2026.
| Period | Revenue (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY24 Q1 | $315M |
| FY24 Q2 | $348.5M |
| FY24 Q3 | $389.1M |
| FY24 Q4 | $425.7M |
| FY25 Q1 | $457.7M |
| FY25 Q2 | $492.1M |
| FY25 Q3 | $519.2M |
| FY25 Q4 | $551.6M |
| FY26 Q1 | $584.6M |
| FY26 Q2 | $615.2M |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved October 29, 2026.
| Period | Revenue growth, TTM YoY |
|---|---|
| FY25 Q1 | 45.3% |
| FY25 Q2 | 41.2% |
| FY25 Q3 | 33.4% |
| FY25 Q4 | 29.6% |
| FY26 Q1 | 27.7% |
| FY26 Q2 | 25.0% |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved October 29, 2026.
| Period | FCF margin (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY24 Q2 | 74.5% |
| FY24 Q3 | 74.7% |
| FY24 Q4 | 68.4% |
| FY25 Q1 | 64.8% |
| FY25 Q2 | 67.7% |
| FY25 Q3 | 63.2% |
| FY25 Q4 | 59.1% |
| FY26 Q1 | 58.8% |
| FY26 Q2 | 53.5% |
| Fiscal year | 2022 Dec 2022 | 2023 Dec 2023 | 2024 Dec 2024 | 2025 Dec 2025 | LTM Jun 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income | |||||
| Revenue | 188 | 283 | 426 | 552 | 615 |
| Net income | 11 | 25 | 38 | 54 | 62 |
| Diluted EPS | $0.47 | $1.04 | $1.29 | $1.59 | $1.86 |
| Growth (year on year) | |||||
| Revenue | — | +51.1% | +50.2% | +29.6% | +25.0% |
| Net income | — | +122.5% | +52.7% | +40.6% | +25.7% |
| Diluted EPS | — | +121.3% | +24.0% | +23.3% | +26.3% |
| Margins | |||||
| Net margin | 6.0% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 10.1% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 94.7% | 82.0% | 68.4% | 59.1% | 53.5% |
| Cash flow | |||||
| Cash from operations | 182 | 236 | 294 | 332 | 334 |
| Capital spending | 4 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 5 |
| Free cash flow | 178 | 232 | 291 | 326 | 329 |
| Stock-based pay | 0 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 11 |
| Free cash flow after stock pay | 177 | 232 | 287 | 319 | 318 |
| Balance sheet | |||||
| Cash | 65 | 118 | 97 | 194 | 142 |
| Total debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 146 | 147 |
| Net debt (negative = net cash) | −65 | −118 | −97 | −47 | 5 |
| Diluted shares | 24m | 24m | 30m | 34m | 34m |
| Quarter | 2024 Q3 Sept 2024 | 2024 Q4 Dec 2024 | 2025 Q1 Mar 2025 | 2025 Q2 Jun 2025 | 2025 Q3 Sept 2025 | 2025 Q4 Dec 2025 | 2026 Q1 Mar 2026 | 2026 Q2 Jun 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income | ||||||||
| Revenue | 117 | 119 | 123 | 133 | 144 | 152 | 156 | 164 |
| Net income | 12 | 14 | 11 | 12 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 16 |
| Diluted EPS | $0.36 | $0.42 | $0.34 | $0.36 | $0.45 | $0.44 | $0.48 | $0.48 |
| Growth (year on year) | ||||||||
| Revenue | +53.4% | +44.1% | +35.3% | +34.7% | +23.3% | +27.1% | +26.9% | +23.0% |
| Net income | +38.9% | +184.4% | +62.9% | +123.1% | +25.5% | +9.1% | +40.1% | +30.8% |
| Diluted EPS | 0.0% | +110.0% | +17.2% | +80.0% | +25.0% | +4.8% | +41.2% | +33.3% |
| Margins | ||||||||
| Net margin | 10.4% | 11.4% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 10.5% | 9.8% | 10.3% | 9.8% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 101.4% | 51.0% | 37.9% | 80.6% | 78.8% | 38.7% | 41.2% | 56.5% |
| Cash flow | ||||||||
| Cash from operations | 119 | 61 | 48 | 109 | 115 | 60 | 65 | 94 |
| Capital spending | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Free cash flow | 118 | 61 | 46 | 107 | 113 | 59 | 64 | 93 |
| Stock-based pay | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 3 |
| Free cash flow after stock pay | 117 | 60 | 45 | 107 | 112 | 55 | 62 | 90 |
| Last 12 months unless stated | BOW | JRVR | HIPO | PRCH | EIG | AGO | Median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $615m | $653m | $543m | $530m | $788m | $940m | $1.7bn |
| Revenue growth, last 12 months | 25.0% | −1.8% | 20.6% | 15.6% | −13.0% | −10.6% | 8.0% |
| Revenue growth, 3-year average | — | −3.9% | 44.2% | 11.8% | −2.4% | −1.2% | 9.5% |
| Revenue growth, latest quarter | 23.0% | −7.7% | 29.4% | 13.0% | −20.9% | −30.6% | 4.2% |
| Net margin | 10.1% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 1.8% | 3.5% | 37.3% | 10.5% |
| Cash from operations / revenue | 54.3% | 0.3% | 23.5% | 21.7% | −2.4% | 34.5% | 18.2% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 53.5% | −0.4% | 23.4% | 21.5% | −2.4% | — | 17.6% |
| Free-cash-flow margin, 3-year average | 65.2% | −12.6% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 4.7% | — | 16.5% |
| Stock pay / revenue | 1.8% | 0.6% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 0.7% | — | 0.6% |
| Change in share count | −0.5% | 22.2% | 5.0% | 2.2% | −19.7% | −10.0% | −0.7% |
| Measure | Company | Peer median | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth Growth | 25.0% | 8.3% | 9 of 48 |
| Change in growth rate Growth | -2.7pp | -0.7pp | 30 of 48 |
| Net margin Profitability | 10.1% | 10.8% | 25 of 48 |
| Stock pay as % of revenue Cash generation | 1.8% | 0.7% | 27 of 34 |
| Change in share count Balance sheet | -0.5% | -0.7% | 26 of 47 |
Rank 1 = best in the group (for spending, debt and dilution, lower ranks first).
| Manager | Value | Shares | Share of 13F value | Shares QoQ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gallatin Point Capital LLC | $268M | 9.0M | 29.4% | 0.0% |
| American Family Investments, Inc. | $141M | 4.7M | 15.4% | 0.0% |
| American Century Companies Inc | $62.3M | 2.1M | 6.8% | ▲ 5.7% |
| Victory Capital Management Inc | $51.8M | 1.7M | 5.7% | ▲ 12.2% |
| Blackrock, Inc. | $46.5M | 1.6M | 5.1% | ▲ 9.9% |
| Polar Capital Holdings PLC | $44.9M | 1.5M | 4.9% | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management LLC | $25M | 834K | 2.7% | ▲ 0.7% |
| Silvercrest Asset Management Group LLC | $16.5M | 552K | 1.8% | New |
| Geode Capital Management, LLC | $13.6M | 455K | 1.5% | ▲ 8.0% |
| Morgan Stanley | $13.1M | 436K | 1.4% | ▲ 5.4% |
| State Street Corp | $12.8M | 428K | 1.4% | ▲ 7.7% |
| Schroder Investment Management Group | $12.6M | 419K | 1.4% | ▲ 19.1% |
From Form 13F filings with the SEC ( quarterly data sets), as reported by each manager for June 30, 2026 and filed up to 45 days later. 13F reports cover long US-listed positions of managers above $100M only, so this is not Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc.'s complete shareholder register. Values are as reported by the filers .
From insiders' Form 4 filings with the SEC. Excludes awards, option exercises and shares withheld for tax. "Pre-set plan" means the filing marks the trade as made under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. See every insider trade since five years ago, on a price chart.
Next expected around February 23, 2027 estimated from the company's past filing pattern, not announced
| Data | Last updated | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Share price | Exchange closing prices | |
| Financial statements | SEC 10-K and 10-Q filings | |
| News and updates | Company releases and SEC 8-K filings | |
| Analyst estimates | Aggregated analyst estimates | |
| Valuation and scores | Our models, from the filed figures |
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