British American Tobacco P.l.c. is a US-listed company in the tobacco industry. Its financial year ends in December.
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~$59
Cash-flow model
Base case. Range ~$39–$85 across our lower- and higher-growth cases (-3%–7% a year).
Modestly overvalued
The price is inside our value range, 3% above our base value.
Price used: $60.99, November 3, 2026
British American Tobacco P.l.c. valuation: adjust assumptions and compare models →
What company insiders, investment funds and members of Congress have been doing with the stock, from their own filings.
Revenue for the twelve months was $33.8bn, up 2.2% on a year earlier, against a decline of 2.6% a quarter earlier. Free-cash-flow margin fell to 22.0% from 34.9% a year earlier. Against its peers on growth, profitability, cash generation and balance sheet, it grades B. It passes 1 of our 6 financial-health checks. Our cash-flow model value is $59.11 a share, against a share price of $61.52.
Written from the company's filings and our models when each quarter's report arrives. Figures in older notes are as published at the time. Not investment advice.
British American Tobacco P.l.c.'s trailing-twelve-month revenue grew 2.2% year on year, with a free-cash-flow margin of 22.0%. Where it stands out: change in growth rate of +4.8pp ranks 2 of 7 tobacco companies we cover.
Our discounted-cash-flow model values the business at ~$59 per share in the base case (~$39–$85 across growth scenarios) — model values under stated assumptions, not a price target.
Current signal Free cash flow diverging from earnings: TTM free cash flow fell 38.9% while net income grew 161.2%: a 200pp divergence.
Assembled from SEC-filed figures — the full workings are on this page and in our methodology. Observations, not recommendations.
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Third-party market data · may be delayed
Company announcements, filed results and changes that matter to shareholders.
No recent updates are available for BTI from the sources we follow. See filings →
The share price implies about 2.4% a year of cash-flow growth for five years.That is close to the 0.4% a year revenue growth British American Tobacco P.l.c. has delivered.
Read with care: free cash flow has swung sharply in the past year (often a one-off tax, legal or working-capital item), so the cash-flow base behind this reading may be unusually low or high.
Our cash-flow model with every input fixed except growth over the next five years, solved for the growth at which the model value equals the share price ($60.96, Nov 3, 2026). Cash-flow growth then fades to 2.5% a year; discount rate 8.5%. Delivered figures are revenue growth from SEC filings. This is a model exercise, not investment advice or a forecast of the share price. All companies
Our value per share comes from a discounted-cash-flow model of British American Tobacco P.l.c.'s free cash flow after stock-based pay ( $10.4B, FY2025 Q4 TTM, with after-tax interest added back): growth for five years as below (the first two years from forecasts, guidance and the company's record), fading to 2.5%, discounted at 8.5%, then cash added and debt and other claims subtracted. These are model values under stated assumptions, not price targets or recommendations.
We value British American Tobacco P.l.c. as an operating company, with every model that fits that kind of business. Cost of equity 7%: the 10-year Treasury yield (4.9%) plus a beta of 0.37 times a 4.5% equity risk premium.
| Model | Value per share | In the combined value? |
|---|---|---|
| Cash-flow model (DCF) Free cash flow to the firm (after stock pay, with after-tax interest added back), grown then faded to 2.5%, discounted at 8.5% as the firm rate, less debt and other claims. | ~$59 ~$39–$85 | Primary model, counts double |
| Price-to-earnings vs peers Earnings per share times peers' typical (harmonic-mean) price-to-earnings. | ~$110 ~$80–$140 | Included |
| Residual income Book value plus the present value of returns above the cost of equity, fading over ten years. | ~$17 ~$10–$28 | Left out: far from the other models (more than 3x away from their median) |
| Justified price-to-book Book value times (return on equity - growth) / (cost of equity - growth): steady-state returns. | ~$9.7 ~$8.0–$12 | Left out: out of range vs price (0.16x) |
| Combined value Weighted average of the models that apply: the primary model (cash-flow model (dcf)) counts double. Models more than 5x or less than 0.2x the share price, or more than 3x away from the other models' median, are left out. | ~$77 ~$59–$110 | 2 models |
Different models fail in different ways, so where several apply we average them rather than trust one. Peer-based models compare British American Tobacco P.l.c. with Tobacco in our coverage, using third-party market data. Model values are estimates under stated assumptions, updated as new filings arrive; not price targets or investment advice. How each model works.
| Discount rate ↓ / growth → | −5% growth | 0% growth | 5% growth | 10% growth | 15% growth | 20% growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7% | $49 | $73 | $106 | $148 | $204 | $275 |
| 8.5% | $33 | $51 | $74 | $104 | $144 | $195 |
| 10% | $23 | $37 | $55 | $78 | $108 | $147 |
Not assessed: fewer than five years of comparable figures in the filings. AI disruption exposure for this industry: Low.
No analyst estimates are published for British American Tobacco P.l.c.: too few analysts cover it.
How British American Tobacco P.l.c.’s listed options are priced, and three ways to use them that follow from our valuation. Quotes are delayed, read November 3, 2026. Check the live chain at your broker before trading.
There is not enough price history to measure realised volatility.
Our rule for “rich”: implied at least 1.2× 60-day realised (beyond measurement noise), above 1-year realised (not just a calm spell), and in the top 20% of our coverage that day. Never with results inside the option’s life. These are our conventions, built on research showing option prices usually imply more movement than follows, most when the gap is wide. How we judge this.
Not offered: fundamentals grade B (needs B+ or better).
We suggest selling a put only on well-rated companies, at a strike where the price you would pay if assigned (strike less premium) is at or below our fair value.
Own 100 shares, sell the $65.00 call expiring December 18, 2026 (45 days) for $0.60 a share — $60.00 per contract.
Bid $0.60, ask $0.70, quoted Tue 3 Nov, 14:19 New York time with BTI at $60.74. Option prices move with the shares: check the live chain at your broker before trading.
Own the shares, buy the $55.00 put and sell the $65.00 call, both expiring December 18, 2026 (45 days).
Offered because the shares trade at or above our fair value of $59.00: a way to hold on with a floor under the price, paid for by giving up upside the model does not expect. Strikes near 25-delta; the put at its ask and the call at its bid. Protection has a cost over time: research on protective puts finds they have usually lowered returns.
General research, not personal advice. Options can lose you more than you expect and are not suitable for everyone: put sellers can be made to buy shares that keep falling, call sellers give up gains above the strike, and results or news can move prices sharply. Chances shown are approximations from each option’s delta. Spreads, fees and early assignment are not modelled.
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved November 2, 2026.
| Period | Revenue (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY15 Q4 | $20B |
| FY16 Q4 | $19.2B |
| FY17 Q4 | $25.2B |
| FY18 Q4 | $32.7B |
| FY19 Q4 | $33B |
| FY20 Q4 | $33.1B |
| FY21 Q4 | $35.4B |
| FY22 Q4 | $34.2B |
| FY23 Q4 | $33.9B |
| FY24 Q4 | $33.1B |
| FY25 Q4 | $33.8B |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved November 2, 2026.
| Period | Revenue growth, TTM YoY |
|---|---|
| FY16 Q4 | -4.4% |
| FY17 Q4 | 31.7% |
| FY18 Q4 | 29.8% |
| FY19 Q4 | 1.0% |
| FY20 Q4 | 0.1% |
| FY21 Q4 | 6.9% |
| FY22 Q4 | -3.2% |
| FY23 Q4 | -0.8% |
| FY24 Q4 | -2.6% |
| FY25 Q4 | 2.2% |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved November 2, 2026.
| Period | Operating margin (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY15 Q4 | 34.8% |
| FY16 Q4 | 32.9% |
| FY17 Q4 | 32.8% |
| FY18 Q4 | 38.0% |
| FY19 Q4 | 34.8% |
| FY20 Q4 | 38.6% |
| FY21 Q4 | 39.8% |
| FY22 Q4 | 38.1% |
| FY23 Q4 | -57.7% |
| FY24 Q4 | 10.6% |
| FY25 Q4 | 39.0% |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved November 2, 2026.
| Period | FCF margin (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY15 Q4 | 31.4% |
| FY16 Q4 | 27.9% |
| FY17 Q4 | 22.3% |
| FY18 Q4 | 38.2% |
| FY19 Q4 | 31.6% |
| FY20 Q4 | 35.0% |
| FY21 Q4 | 34.9% |
| FY22 Q4 | 35.2% |
| FY23 Q4 | 37.1% |
| FY24 Q4 | 36.8% |
| FY25 Q4 | 22.0% |
Each dollar British American Tobacco P.l.c. took in during FY2025, followed through to profit: what it cost to make, what went on research and running the business, and what was left after tax.
| Revenue | $33.8B | |
|---|---|---|
| Research and development | $472M | 1.4% of revenue |
| Other operating costs | $20.1B | 59.6% of revenue |
| Operating income | $13.2B | 39.0% of revenue |
| Income tax | $2.8B | 8.2% of revenue |
| Interest and other | $183M | 0.5% of revenue |
| Net income | $10.2B | 30.3% of revenue |
| Fiscal year | 2015 Dec 2015 | 2016 Dec 2016 | 2017 Dec 2017 | 2018 Dec 2018 | 2019 Dec 2019 | 2020 Dec 2020 | 2021 Dec 2021 | 2022 Dec 2022 | 2023 Dec 2023 | 2024 Dec 2024 | 2025 Dec 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income | |||||||||||
| Revenue | 20.0 | 19.2 | 25.2 | 32.7 | 33.0 | 33.1 | 35.4 | 34.2 | 33.9 | 33.1 | 33.8 |
| EBITDA | — | — | — | 12.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Operating income | 7.0 | 6.3 | 8.3 | 12.4 | 11.5 | 12.8 | 14.1 | 13.0 | −19.6 | 3.5 | 13.2 |
| Net income | 6.6 | 6.3 | 48.3 | 8.1 | 7.3 | 8.2 | 9.4 | 8.2 | −17.9 | 3.9 | 10.2 |
| Diluted EPS | $351.99 | $3.38 | $23.56 | $3.52 | $3.18 | $3.58 | $4.07 | $3.61 | −$8.04 | $1.74 | $4.61 |
| Growth (year on year) | |||||||||||
| Revenue | — | −4.4% | +31.7% | +29.8% | +1.0% | +0.1% | +6.9% | −3.2% | −0.8% | −2.6% | +2.2% |
| Operating income | — | −9.4% | +31.0% | +50.6% | −7.5% | +11.0% | +10.2% | −7.6% | −250.5% | — | +277.1% |
| Net income | — | −3.9% | +666.9% | −83.3% | −9.6% | +12.7% | +14.0% | −11.9% | −316.7% | — | +161.2% |
| Diluted EPS | — | −99.0% | +597.4% | −85.1% | −9.6% | +12.5% | +13.7% | −11.2% | −322.7% | — | +164.9% |
| Margins | |||||||||||
| EBITDA margin | — | — | — | 38.2% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Operating margin | 34.8% | 32.9% | 32.8% | 38.0% | 34.8% | 38.6% | 39.8% | 38.1% | −57.7% | 10.6% | 39.0% |
| Net margin | 32.7% | 32.9% | 191.6% | 24.6% | 22.0% | 24.8% | 26.5% | 24.1% | −52.7% | 11.9% | 30.3% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 32.3% | 28.5% | 23.3% | 38.9% | 32.2% | 36.0% | 35.8% | 35.7% | 37.6% | 37.3% | 22.6% |
| Cash flow | |||||||||||
| Cash from operations | 7.2 | 6.2 | 6.9 | 13.8 | 11.5 | 12.6 | 13.4 | 12.9 | 13.3 | 12.9 | 8.4 |
| Capital spending | 0.7 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.7 |
| Free cash flow | 6.5 | 5.5 | 5.9 | 12.7 | 10.6 | 11.9 | 12.6 | 12.2 | 12.8 | 12.3 | 7.6 |
| Balance sheet | |||||||||||
| Cash | — | 2.7 | 4.5 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 4.3 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 5.9 | 6.6 | 5.1 |
| Total debt | — | 24.1 | 66.9 | 60.6 | 60.2 | 60.1 | 53.5 | 52.1 | 50.6 | 46.3 | 47.2 |
| Net debt (negative = net cash) | — | 21.3 | 62.4 | 57.3 | 56.8 | 55.8 | 49.7 | 47.9 | 44.7 | 39.6 | 42.0 |
| Diluted shares | — | — | — | 2,292m | 2,291,000,000m | 2,295m | 2,297m | 2,267m | 2,229m | 2,225m | 2,199m |
| Returned to shareholders | |||||||||||
| Dividends | — | — | — | — | — | 6.3 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — |
| Buybacks | — | — | — | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.5 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 1.5 |
| Total returned | — | — | — | 0.2 | 0.1 | 6.3 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 1.5 |
| Last 12 months unless stated | BTI | PM | MO | UVV | RLX | TPB | Median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $33.8bn | $43.1bn | $23.5bn | $2.8bn | $551m | $507m | $2.8bn |
| Revenue growth, last 12 months | 2.2% | 7.9% | 0.5% | −3.6% | 44.2% | 24.5% | 2.2% |
| Revenue growth, 3-year average | — | −9.1% | −1.5% | 2.2% | — | 11.1% | −1.5% |
| Revenue growth, latest quarter | — | 5.5% | 1.0% | −12.2% | — | 22.6% | 1.0% |
| Gross margin | — | 67.7% | 63.3% | 15.6% | 29.9% | 59.2% | 52.1% |
| Operating margin | 39.0% | 38.6% | 47.0% | 4.9% | 8.3% | 14.8% | 14.8% |
| Operating margin, 3-year average | 37.2% | 36.9% | 47.0% | 7.2% | — | 20.6% | 28.8% |
| Net margin | 30.3% | 24.8% | 34.5% | 0.7% | 23.3% | 8.8% | 23.3% |
| Cash from operations / revenue | 24.8% | 35.1% | 40.1% | 7.7% | 27.9% | 6.4% | 24.8% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 22.0% | 31.5% | 38.6% | 5.8% | 24.9% | 3.9% | 22.0% |
| Free-cash-flow margin, 3-year average | 26.4% | 27.9% | 37.7% | 2.2% | — | 12.4% | 19.4% |
| Stock pay / revenue | — | — | — | 0.2% | 4.7% | 1.8% | 3.3% |
| Change in share count | −1.2% | 0.1% | −0.8% | 0.1% | −5.0% | 5.8% | 0.1% |
| Measure | Company | Peer median | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth Growth | 2.2% | 2.2% | 4 of 7 |
| Change in growth rate Growth | +4.8pp | -0.7pp | 2 of 7 |
| Operating margin Profitability | 39.0% | 14.8% | 2 of 7 |
| Net margin Profitability | 30.3% | 23.3% | 2 of 7 |
| Free-cash-flow margin Cash generation | 22.0% | 22.0% | 4 of 7 |
| Long-term debt as % of assets Balance sheet | 29.0% | 34.4% | 3 of 6 |
| Change in share count Balance sheet | -1.2% | 0.1% | 2 of 6 |
| Days sales outstanding Balance sheet | 55 days | 45 days | 4 of 5 |
Rank 1 = best in the group (for spending, debt and dilution, lower ranks first).
| Manager | Value | Shares | Share of 13F value | Shares QoQ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Capital International Investors | $3B | 49.1M | 14.9% | ▲ 0.7% |
| FMR LLC | $2.7B | 44.2M | 13.4% | ▲ 20.4% |
| Capital Research Global Investors | $1.9B | 30.3M | 9.2% | ▼ 2.0% |
| GQG Partners LLC | $1.5B | 24.6M | 7.5% | ▼ 11.3% |
| Blackrock, Inc. | $1.2B | 20.2M | 6.1% | ▲ 5.3% |
| Bank Of America Corp | $651M | 10.5M | 3.2% | ▲ 8.2% |
| Capital World Investors | $602M | 9.7M | 3.0% | ▲ 0.5% |
| Morgan Stanley | $476M | 7.7M | 2.3% | ▲ 48.2% |
| Orbis Allan Gray Ltd | $456M | 7.4M | 2.2% | ▼ 4.2% |
| Jpmorgan Chase & Co | $338M | 5.4M | 1.7% | ▼ 7.3% |
| Wells Fargo & Company | $301M | 4.9M | 1.5% | ▲ 4.8% |
| Natixis Advisors, LLC | $276M | 4.5M | 1.4% | ▲ 8.0% |
From Form 13F filings with the SEC ( quarterly data sets), as reported by each manager for June 30, 2026 and filed up to 45 days later. 13F reports cover long US-listed positions of managers above $100M only, so this is not British American Tobacco P.l.c.'s complete shareholder register. Values are as reported by the filers .
From insiders' Form 4 filings with the SEC. Excludes awards, option exercises and shares withheld for tax. "Pre-set plan" means the filing marks the trade as made under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. See every insider trade since five years ago, on a price chart.
No trades in British American Tobacco P.l.c. disclosed in the last 12 months; 41 earlier trades on record.
| Data | Last updated | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Share price | Exchange closing prices | |
| News and updates | Company releases and SEC 8-K filings | |
| Analyst estimates | Aggregated analyst estimates | |
| Valuation and scores | Our models, from the filed figures |
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