Commercial Bancgroup, Inc. is a US-listed company in the regional banks industry. Its financial year ends in December.
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~$39
Valuation models combined (6)
Base case. Range ~$18–$49. Weighted average of 6 models (residual income, justified price-to-book, price-to-book vs return on equity (peers), price-to-book vs peers, price-to-earnings vs peers, dividend discount (two-stage)), the residual income counting double.
No Buy/Hold/Sell rating is issued: limited reported history: available models are shown without a Buy/Hold/Sell rating.
Commercial Bancgroup, Inc. valuation: adjust assumptions and compare models →
What company insiders, investment funds and members of Congress have been doing with the stock, from their own filings.
Revenue for the twelve months to June 2026 was $94m. Our cash-flow model value is $38.73 a share, against a share price of $33.45.
Source: 10-Q filed August 12, 2026 on SEC EDGAR · Financials · Valuation
Written from the company's filings and our models when each quarter's report arrives. Figures in older notes are as published at the time. Not investment advice.
Commercial Bancgroup, Inc.'s trailing-twelve-month revenue grew 5.4% year on year, with a free-cash-flow margin of 41.2%.
Current signal Net margin expanding: TTM net margin reached 42.1%, up 5.5pp year over year.
Assembled from SEC-filed figures — the full workings are on this page and in our methodology. Observations, not recommendations.
No figure in Commercial Bancgroup, Inc.'s latest results trips our warning thresholds.
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Third-party market data · may be delayed
Company announcements, filed results and changes that matter to shareholders.
We value Commercial Bancgroup, Inc. as a bank or lender, with every model that fits that kind of business. Cost of equity 8.5%: the 10-year Treasury yield (4.9%) plus a beta of 0.78 times a 4.5% equity risk premium.
| Model | Value per share | In the combined value? |
|---|---|---|
| Residual income Book value plus the present value of returns above the cost of equity, fading over ten years. | ~$49 ~$33–$75 | Primary model, counts double |
| Justified price-to-book Book value times (return on equity - growth) / (cost of equity - growth): steady-state returns. | ~$47 ~$39–$57 | Included |
| Price-to-book vs return on equity (peers) The price-to-book that peers with this return on equity trade on, from a line fitted across peers. | ~$35 ~$23–$47 | Included |
| Price-to-book vs peers Book value per share times peers' typical (harmonic-mean) price-to-book. | ~$18 ~$23–$34 | Included |
| Price-to-earnings vs peers Earnings per share times peers' typical (harmonic-mean) price-to-earnings. | ~$28 ~$32–$43 | Included |
| Dividend discount (two-stage) Dividends for five years at the growth the business can fund, then a steady payout and growth. | ~$49 ~$39–$62 | Included |
| Combined value Weighted average of the models that apply: the primary model (residual income) counts double. Models more than 5x or less than 0.2x the share price, or more than 3x away from the other models' median, are left out. | ~$39 ~$18–$49 | 6 models |
Different models fail in different ways, so where several apply we average them rather than trust one. Peer-based models compare Commercial Bancgroup, Inc. with banks and lenders in our coverage, using third-party market data. Model values are estimates under stated assumptions, updated as new filings arrive; not price targets or investment advice. How each model works.
Not assessed: fewer than five years of comparable figures in the filings. AI disruption exposure for this industry: Medium.
Next results: January 25, 2027, after the close. Analysts expect revenue of $25m and EPS of $0.79 (range $0.79 to $0.79) for the quarter.
| Fiscal year | EPS | Growth | Revenue | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | $3.05 | +3% | $98m | +8% |
| Next | $3.20 | +5% | $103m | +5% |
Next year's EPS estimate has moved +1.6% in 90 days, across 1 analysts.
The consensus EPS forecast for the current fiscal year is +4.1% on 90 days ago. In the last 30 days, 1 analyst raised Commercial Bancgroup, Inc.'s forecast and 0 cut it.
Average of analysts' published estimates (third-party data).
| Period | Current fiscal year | Next fiscal year |
|---|---|---|
| 90 days ago | $2.93 | $3.15 |
| 60 days ago | $2.98 | $3.18 |
| 30 days ago | $2.98 | $3.18 |
| 7 days ago | $2.98 | $3.18 |
| Now | $3.05 | $3.20 |
| Quarter to | Estimate | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sept 2026 | $0.74 | $0.79 | +6.8% |
| Jun 2026 | $0.70 | $0.75 | +7.1% |
| Mar 2026 | $0.68 | $0.73 | +7.3% |
| Dec 2025 | $0.67 | $0.72 | +7.5% |
Adjusted EPS as companies report it, against the average analyst estimate.
| Calendar year | 2026 to date |
|---|---|
| Return | |
| CBK | +39% |
| Industry peers (median) | +24% |
| S&P 500 | +11% |
| Months that ended higher | |
| CBK | 64% |
| S&P 500 | 46% |
| Largest fall from a high during the year | |
| CBK | −13% |
| S&P 500 | −9% |
Worst fall since October 2, 2025: 13% from August 5, 2026 to October 9, 2026. Getting back needed a 14% gain, and the shares have not yet recovered.
| Results released | Next day | S&P 500 next day | 5 days | 21 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 26, 2026 | +1.3% | +1.3% | +4.5% | — |
| July 27, 2026 | +4.7% | +0.3% | +4.8% | +3.4% |
| April 27, 2026 | +1.1% | −0.3% | +0.2% | +1.1% |
| January 26, 2026 | +3.0% | +0.9% | +9.6% | +9.1% |
| October 28, 2025 | −2.3% | +0.3% | −2.8% | −2.0% |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved October 29, 2026.
| Period | Revenue (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY25 Q2 | $88.7M |
| FY25 Q3 | $89.7M |
| FY25 Q4 | $90.4M |
| FY26 Q1 | $91.6M |
| FY26 Q2 | $93.5M |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved October 29, 2026.
| Period | FCF margin (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY25 Q3 | 40.4% |
| FY25 Q4 | 39.0% |
| FY26 Q1 | 40.0% |
| FY26 Q2 | 41.2% |
What Commercial Bancgroup earned on its loans and securities in FY2025, what it paid depositors and lenders, and how its revenue split between running costs, credit losses, tax and profit.
| Interest income | $122M | |
|---|---|---|
| Fee and other income | $9.9M | 11.0% of revenue |
| Interest paid | $41.2M | |
| Net interest income | $80.4M | 89.0% of revenue |
| Revenue | $90.4M | |
| Non-interest expense | $42.5M | 47.0% of revenue |
| Pre-tax profit | $47.9M | 53.0% of revenue |
| Income tax | $10.2M | 11.3% of revenue |
| Other | $463,326 | 0.5% of revenue |
| Net income | $37.2M | 41.2% of revenue |
| Fiscal year | 2024 Dec 2024 | 2025 Dec 2025 | LTM Jun 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Income | |||
| Revenue | 88 | 90 | 94 |
| Net income | 31 | 37 | 39 |
| Diluted EPS | $2.54 | $2.95 | $2.95 |
| Growth (year on year) | |||
| Revenue | — | +2.1% | +5.4% |
| Net income | — | +18.4% | +21.4% |
| Diluted EPS | — | +16.1% | — |
| Margins | |||
| Net margin | 35.5% | 41.2% | 42.1% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 40.3% | 39.0% | 41.2% |
| Cash flow | |||
| Cash from operations | 39 | 37 | 41 |
| Capital spending | 3 | 2 | 2 |
| Free cash flow | 36 | 35 | 39 |
| Stock-based pay | 2 | 0 | — |
| Free cash flow after stock pay | 33 | 35 | — |
| Balance sheet | |||
| Cash | 178 | 144 | 170 |
| Total debt | 109 | 167 | 176 |
| Net debt (negative = net cash) | −69 | 23 | 6 |
| Diluted shares | 12m | 13m | 13m |
| Returned to shareholders | |||
| Dividends | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| Buybacks | 2 | 1 | — |
| Total returned | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| Quarter | 2024 Q3 Sept 2024 | 2024 Q4 Dec 2024 | 2025 Q1 Mar 2025 | 2025 Q2 Jun 2025 | 2025 Q3 Sept 2025 | 2025 Q4 Dec 2025 | 2026 Q1 Mar 2026 | 2026 Q2 Jun 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income | ||||||||
| Revenue | 22 | 23 | 22 | 22 | 23 | 23 | 23 | 24 |
| Net income | 9 | 6 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Diluted EPS | $0.74 | $0.44 | $0.72 | $0.73 | $0.77 | $0.73 | $0.70 | $0.74 |
| Growth (year on year) | ||||||||
| Revenue | — | — | — | — | +4.5% | +3.0% | +5.9% | +8.4% |
| Net income | — | — | — | — | +2.8% | +80.7% | +9.7% | +14.8% |
| Diluted EPS | — | — | — | — | +4.1% | +65.9% | −2.8% | +1.4% |
| Margins | ||||||||
| Net margin | 42.1% | 24.6% | 39.9% | 39.9% | 41.4% | 43.2% | 41.3% | 42.3% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | — | 42.7% | 53.8% | 30.7% | 34.6% | 37.4% | 56.9% | 36.4% |
| Cash flow | ||||||||
| Cash from operations | — | 10 | 12 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 13 | 10 |
| Capital spending | — | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Free cash flow | — | 10 | 12 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 13 | 9 |
| Stock-based pay | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0 | 0 |
| Free cash flow after stock pay | — | — | — | — | — | — | 13 | 9 |
| Last 12 months unless stated | CBK | FUNC | FXNC | GCBC | FRAF | EBMT | Median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $94m | $93m | $93m | $93m | $95m | $95m | $255m |
| Revenue growth, last 12 months | 5.4% | 11.4% | 12.0% | 22.9% | 22.3% | 11.0% | 12.5% |
| Revenue growth, 3-year average | — | 6.5% | 16.9% | 8.1% | 11.3% | 2.1% | 6.0% |
| Revenue growth, latest quarter | 8.4% | 9.9% | 7.0% | 22.0% | 9.6% | 5.2% | 10.7% |
| Net margin | 42.1% | 26.8% | 23.3% | 44.3% | 26.0% | 16.8% | 28.7% |
| Cash from operations / revenue | 43.7% | 32.3% | 32.4% | 45.7% | 44.6% | 23.8% | 34.3% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 41.2% | 27.9% | 28.1% | 44.9% | 42.4% | 19.6% | 31.4% |
| Free-cash-flow margin, 3-year average | — | 27.5% | 7.6% | 39.1% | 34.1% | 17.2% | 29.9% |
| Stock pay / revenue | — | 0.9% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.2% |
| Change in share count | — | 0.0% | 8.6% | −0.0% | 1.9% | −0.0% | 0.4% |
| Manager | Value | Shares | Share of 13F value | Shares QoQ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Rowe Price Investment Management, Inc. | $27.6M | 854K | 11.5% | ▼ 0.4% |
| Alliancebernstein L.P. | $22.2M | 853K | 9.3% | ▼ 17.2% |
| Blackrock, Inc. | $21.7M | 671K | 9.0% | ▲ 38.1% |
| Raffles Associates LP | $15.1M | 466K | 6.3% | ▲ 87.8% |
| Vanguard Capital Management LLC | $10.7M | 332K | 4.5% | ▲ 0.7% |
| Petiole Usa Ltd | $9.4M | 291K | 3.9% | 0.0% |
| Pacific Ridge Capital Partners, LLC | $7.2M | 224K | 3.0% | ▼ 0.8% |
| Mendon Capital Advisors Corp | $6.9M | 214K | 2.9% | ▼ 32.3% |
| Geode Capital Management, LLC | $6.8M | 210K | 2.8% | ▲ 24.2% |
| Curi Capital, LLC | $6.3M | 196K | 2.6% | ▼ 32.5% |
| Community Trust & Investment Co | $6M | 186K | 2.5% | 0.0% |
| TCW Group Inc | $4.9M | 152K | 2.0% | 0.0% |
From Form 13F filings with the SEC ( quarterly data sets), as reported by each manager for June 30, 2026 and filed up to 45 days later. 13F reports cover long US-listed positions of managers above $100M only, so this is not Commercial Bancgroup, Inc.'s complete shareholder register. Values are as reported by the filers .
| Insider | Date | Trade | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robertson John Adam Executive Chairperson | September 16, 2026 | Buy | 70 | $32.69 | $2,288 |
| Metheny Philip J. EVP, Chief Financial Officer | August 26, 2026 | Buy | 100 | $34.11 | $3,411 |
| Metheny Philip J. EVP, Chief Financial Officer | August 25, 2026 | Buy | 670 | $34.79 | $23,309 |
| Metheny Philip J. EVP, Chief Financial Officer | August 20, 2026 | Buy | 150 | $33.77 | $5,066 |
| Metheny Philip J. EVP, Chief Financial Officer | August 3, 2026 | Buy | 850 | $34.74 | $29,529 |
| Metheny Philip J. EVP, Chief Financial Officer | April 30, 2026 | Buy | 3,300 | $29.02 | $95,766 |
| Robertson John Adam Executive Chairperson | January 30, 2026 | Buy | 266 | $26.20 | $6,969 |
| Robertson Dennis Michael Director | January 28, 2026 | Buy | 450 | $25.64 | $11,538 |
| Metheny Philip J. EVP, Chief Financial Officer | November 21, 2025 | Buy | 4,147 | $24.12 | $100,018 |
From insiders' Form 4 filings with the SEC. Excludes awards, option exercises and shares withheld for tax. "Pre-set plan" means the filing marks the trade as made under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. See every insider trade since five years ago, on a price chart.
Next expected around January 25, 2027 estimated from the company's past filing pattern, not announced
| Data | Last updated | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Share price | Exchange closing prices | |
| Financial statements | SEC 10-K and 10-Q filings | |
| News and updates | Company releases and SEC 8-K filings | |
| Analyst estimates | Aggregated analyst estimates | |
| Valuation and scores | Our models, from the filed figures |
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