Costco valuation and forecast
Explore the models for Costco, adjust their assumptions and compare your own valuation with the platform's.
Your valuation workspace
What is COST worth to you?
Start with the company's financial data. Make the assumptions your own.
01 / Assumptions
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The cash flows behind your value
View annual figures
| Forecast year | Cash flow / share |
|---|
Negative cash flows are shown in terracotta. Before the terminal value and equity bridge. Residual-income models show excess earnings; dividend models show dividends.
See the range of possibilities
Compare and combine your models
Weights start with the platform's included models. Change them to build your own combination. Select a model name to edit its assumptions.
| Model | Your value / share | Weight |
|---|
The platform's price and consistency filters are not reapplied to your scenarios.
Other model types 15 unavailable for COST
Revenue-to-maturity DCF
This model does not apply to this company with the available financial data.
Growth DCF
This model does not apply to this company with the available financial data.
P/B vs return on equity
This model does not apply to this company with the available financial data.
Peer price-to-book
This model does not apply to this company with the available financial data.
Peer P/E
This model does not apply to this company with the available financial data.
Peer price-to-FFO
This model does not apply to this company with the available financial data.
Peer price-to-sales
This model does not apply to this company with the available financial data.
Forward peer price-to-sales
This model does not apply to this company with the available financial data.
Two-stage dividend discount
This model does not apply to this company with the available financial data.
Growing-dividend model
This model does not apply to this company with the available financial data.
REIT funds from operations
This model does not apply to this company with the available financial data.
Utility earnings
This model does not apply to this company with the available financial data.
Book value / net assets
This model does not apply to this company with the available financial data.
Reported crypto treasury NAV
This model does not apply to this company with the available financial data.
Proved-reserve NAV
This model does not apply to this company with the available financial data.
Model values are estimates under the assumptions shown. They are not share-price forecasts or investment advice.
Valuation models compared
range across growth cases central value market price $1022.20
Different models answer different questions: the cash-flow models ask what the business generates for owners; the peer multiples ask what similar companies in our coverage trade on. Where they disagree, the gap is the story. Projections are estimates based on current data, updated daily. Not investment advice. How each model works.
Analyst recommendations
Monthly trend
- Oct 202641
- Sep 202639
- Aug 202639
- Jul 202639
Counts of recommendations published by analysts covering Costco, by month. Source: Aggregated broker recommendations (third-party data). Aggregated counts only: we do not reproduce any firm's recommendation or price target, and these are not Fundamentalytics ratings.
Price history
Loading chart…
Third-party market data · may be delayed
Five-year projection
- Share price
- Higher growth
- Base case
- Lower growth
Today: lower growth ~$360 · base case ~$470 · higher growth ~$610 · share price $1022.53
Where our model's value per share would be at each point if that growth case plays out — not a forecast of the share price, which can stay above or below value for long periods. How projections are calculated.
Projections are estimates based on current data, updated daily. Not investment advice.
How our value has changed
View the data
| Period | Our value per share |
|---|---|
| FY2022 Q1 (backtest) | $419 |
| FY2022 Q2 (backtest) | $444 |
| FY2022 Q3 (backtest) | $408 |
| FY2022 Q4 (backtest) | $407 |
| FY2023 Q1 (backtest) | $386 |
| FY2023 Q2 (backtest) | $417 |
| FY2023 Q3 (backtest) | $360 |
| FY2023 Q4 (backtest) | $317 |
| FY2024 Q1 (backtest) | $345 |
| FY2024 Q2 (backtest) | $322 |
| FY2024 Q3 (backtest) | $323 |
| FY2024 Q4 (backtest) | $273 |
| FY2025 Q1 (backtest) | $268 |
| FY2025 Q2 (backtest) | $307 |
| FY2025 Q3 (backtest) | $339 |
| FY2025 Q4 (backtest) | $368 |
| FY2026 Q1 (backtest) | $403 |
| FY2026 Q2 (backtest) | $398 |
| FY2026 Q3 (backtest) | $446 |
| FY2026 Q4 (backtest) | $471 |
Our model re-run on each past quarter's filed figures: how the method would have valued Costco at the time (a backtest — our dated public record starts at launch). The grey line is the share price at month end, for comparison.
Five-year model value, by case
| Year | Lower growth | Base case | Higher growth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Latest filing | ~$360 | ~$470 | ~$610 |
| 2027 | ~$370 | ~$490 | ~$640 |
| 2028 | ~$390 | ~$510 | ~$670 |
| 2029 | ~$400 | ~$530 | ~$700 |
| 2030 | ~$410 | ~$550 | ~$730 |
| 2031 | ~$430 | ~$570 | ~$760 |
Projections are estimates based on current data, updated daily. Not investment advice. How projections are calculated.
The assumptions
- Free cash flow (TTM, FY2026 Q4)
- $9.4B
- Less stock-based pay
- $924M
- Cash flow we value
- $7.9B
- Growth, years 1–5 (base)
- 8.9%
- Then fading to
- 2.5%
- Discount rate
- 8.5%
- Net cash added
- $15.1B
- Diluted shares
- 443M
What would move the value
- Growth 5 points lower
- −23%
- Growth 5 points higher
- +30%
- Free-cash-flow margin 1 point lower
- −30%
- Discount rate 1 point higher
- −14%
Change in our model value when one input moves, all else equal.
COST valuation questions
- What is Costco worth per share?
- Our discounted-cash-flow model of Costco's free cash flow after stock-based pay puts its value at ~$470 per share in the base case, with a range of ~$360–$610 across lower- and higher-growth cases. Model values under stated assumptions, not a price target or recommendation.
- What could Costco be worth by 2031?
- If our base case plays out, the model's value per share would be about ~$570 by 2031 (~$430–$760 across our lower- and higher-growth cases). This is where the model's value would be, not a forecast of the share price, which can stay above or below value for long periods.
- How does Fundamentalytics value Costco?
- We value Costco's normalised cash flow after stock-based pay using a ten-year discounted-cash-flow model. Near-term growth can incorporate forecasts and guidance; growth then fades to the long-run rate. The equity bridge adds cash and subtracts debt and other claims. The calculator shows the company data and assumptions you can adjust.
Data: SEC EDGAR filings, retrieved October 20, 2026. Method: how we value companies. Disclosures: research and recommendations disclosure. Back to Costco.