Empire Petroleum Corp: what the price is pricing in

The price implies cash-flow growth of 7.0% a year; our model expects 0.5%. The gap is too narrow for a position this quarter. Switch lens below to see the same question asked of earnings, growth, sales and book value.

No published rating for Empire Petroleum Corp: only 1 valuation models apply; a rating needs 3. The readings below run our models backwards for research and show how trading the gap would have done; they are not a valuation or a rating. The valuation page shows the models and their status.

What growth in cash flow is the price paying for?

The price implies cash-flow growth of 7.0% a year; our model expects 0.5%.

Gap too narrow for a position this quarter

What the price implies What our model expects

Quarters with a position00 long, 0 short, since September 30, 2026

Beat the S&P 500—no position yet

Strategy against the index0.0%cumulative; worst fall 0.0%

Over time

The growth in owner earnings (free cash flow after stock-based pay) that would justify the share price in our discounted-cash-flow model, against the growth the model itself assumes from the company's record.

Growth our model assumes Growth the price implies Long quarter Short quarter. Lower panel: the share price at each quarter end, adjusted for later share splits and spin-offs (the table below gives the price as traded).

Skill or luck?

In plain English: The gap has not been wide enough for a position in Empire Petroleum Corp since 2010, so there is no record to judge.

Positions	Beat the S&P 500	Average vs S&P 500, a quarter	Typical (median), a quarter	A year	Confidence (t)	Evidence
Longs	—	—	—	—	—	—
Shorts	—	—	—	—	—	—
All positions	—	—	—	—	—	—

Each position is measured against the S&P 500 over the same quarter: a long earns the stock's return minus the index's, a short the index's minus the stock's. "A year" compounds the per-quarter results. Evidence: strong at a t-statistic of 2 or more, some from 1.5; "worse" when the result is that far below zero; one company's history is a small sample, so read these alongside the results across all companies.

Every quarter (1)

From	Price paid	Growth the price implies	Growth our model assumes	Position	EP	S&P 500
September 30, 2026 (open)	$2.28	7.0%	0.5%	No position	+1.1%	−0.8%

Price paid: the closing price that day as traded, before any later share split.

What profit margin is the price paying for?

The price implies an owner-earnings margin of 19.8%; the company has kept 13.6%.

Market more optimistic than our model: short this quarter

What the price implies What the company delivered

Quarters with a position00 long, 0 short, since September 30, 2026

Beat the S&P 500—no position yet

Strategy against the index0.0%cumulative; worst fall 0.0%

Over time

The owner-earnings margin (free cash flow after stock pay, as a share of revenue) the price requires at our model's growth, against the margin the company has delivered over three years.

Margin delivered Margin the price implies Long quarter Short quarter. Lower panel: the share price at each quarter end, adjusted for later share splits and spin-offs (the table below gives the price as traded).

Skill or luck?

In plain English: The gap has not been wide enough for a position in Empire Petroleum Corp since 2010, so there is no record to judge.

Positions	Beat the S&P 500	Average vs S&P 500, a quarter	Typical (median), a quarter	A year	Confidence (t)	Evidence
Longs	—	—	—	—	—	—
Shorts	—	—	—	—	—	—
All positions	—	—	—	—	—	—

Every quarter (1)

From	Price paid	Margin the price implies	Margin delivered	Position	EP	S&P 500
September 30, 2026 (open)	$2.28	19.8%	13.6%	Short	+1.1%	−0.8%

Price paid: the closing price that day as traded, before any later share split.

How the test works

At each quarter end since March 2010 we rebuild the models from Empire Petroleum Corp's quarters ending at least 90 days earlier (and no more than 200 days before that), using the figures as later filed, including any restatement, and value them at that day's close, adjusted for later share splits and spin-offs so that price and share count are on the same basis. A wide enough gap is a long or a short for one quarter (growth 10 points; margin and return on equity 5 points; a PEG under 0.75 or over 3), measured on total return against the S&P 500. The rules were set before the test. No trading or borrowing costs; today's list of companies. Not investment advice. All companies and the results across them.

Compare with peers

Head to head: EP vs KGEI EP vs EPM BSIN vs EP EP vs MXC

More: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production stocks compared, Energy sector, rankings of US companies

Figures from Empire Petroleum Corp's SEC filings (10-K and 10-Q), retrieved October 29, 2026. How we read and check them: methodology and data sources. Not investment advice. Back to Empire Petroleum Corp.