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Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund (MSDL) stock

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NYSE: MSDL NYSE Asset Management & Custody Banks Next results ~November 5, 2026

Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund is a US-listed company in the asset management & custody banks industry. Its financial year ends in December.

Stock price today

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Third-party market data · may be delayed

Model estimate per share

~$17

Forward price-to-earnings vs peers

Base case. Range ~$14–$22. Next year's consensus earnings per share times peers' typical (harmonic-mean) forward price-to-earnings.

Price vs value

No Buy/Hold/Sell rating is issued: limited reported history: available models are shown without a Buy/Hold/Sell rating.

Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund valuation: adjust assumptions and compare models →

Who’s trading

What company insiders, investment funds and members of Congress have been doing with the stock, from their own filings.

  • Insiders6 buying, 0 selling7 purchases and 0 sales by directors and officers, last 12 monthsInsider trades
  • Funds71 adding, 63 cuttingOf 17 active managers that changed their stake, 5 added; quarter to June 30, 2026Fund buyers and sellers

The Fundamentalytics view

Next results ~November 5, 2026 (estimated)

Assembled from SEC-filed figures — the full workings are on this page and in our methodology. Observations, not recommendations.

Highlights

How we pick these

Strengths

Nothing in Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund's latest figures clears our strength thresholds.

Things to watch

  • Results due soon. Results are expected around 5 November; the share price can move sharply on the day.
  • Missing expectations. Earnings per share fell short of the consensus estimate in 3 of the last four quarters.

Latest results

Earnings per share
$0.45 against an average estimate of $0.45: missed by 0.1%
Share reaction
+2.3% in the first session after the results on August 6, 2026, against +0.5% for the S&P 500
Next report
November 5, 2026; average EPS estimate $0.44

Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund's figures from its SEC filings and results release; estimates are the analysts' average. Not a recommendation.

Price chart

  • 1 day+2.4%
  • 1 week+6.5%
  • 1 month+5.0%
  • This year-5.4%
  • 1 year-5.2%
  • S&P 500 this year+11.2%

Closing prices to 2026-11-02. Price change only, dividends excluded.

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Third-party market data · may be delayed

At a glance

Trailing twelve months, from SEC filings

Earnings

Last results
August 6, 2026
Next results (est.)
November 5, 2026

News & updates

Updated October 31, 2026

Company announcements, filed results and changes that matter to shareholders.

  1. Announcement
  2. Leadership
  3. Results
  4. Agreement
  5. Announcement

Refreshed hourly when new source data is available. Summaries are checked against company releases and SEC filings. Company announcement headlines are labelled when a checked summary is unavailable.

Valuation

Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund valuation models and calculator

Fundamentalytics rating

model v1.6 · 2026-11-03

Not rated: limited reported history: available models are shown without a Buy/Hold/Sell rating.

Valuation models

We value Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund as an asset manager, broker or exchange, with every model that fits that kind of business. Cost of equity 8.3%: the 10-year Treasury yield (4.9%) plus a beta of 0.75 times a 4.5% equity risk premium.

Value per share by model
Model Value per share In the combined value?
Forward price-to-earnings vs peers Next year's consensus earnings per share times peers' typical (harmonic-mean) forward price-to-earnings. Uses analysts' consensus estimates (third-party data), not our forecasts. ~$17 ~$14–$22 Primary model, counts double
Residual income Book value plus the present value of returns above the cost of equity, fading over ten years. — Does not apply: no twelve-month earnings or share count in the filings yet
Justified price-to-book Book value times (return on equity - growth) / (cost of equity - growth): steady-state returns. — Does not apply: no twelve-month earnings or share count in the filings yet
Price-to-book vs peers Book value per share times peers' typical (harmonic-mean) price-to-book. — Does not apply: no twelve-month earnings or share count in the filings yet
Dividend discount (two-stage) Dividends for five years at the growth the business can fund, then a steady payout and growth. — Does not apply: no twelve-month earnings or share count in the filings yet
Combined value Weighted average of the models that apply: the primary model (forward price-to-earnings vs peers) counts double. Models more than 5x or less than 0.2x the share price, or more than 3x away from the other models' median, are left out. ~$17 ~$14–$22 1 model

Different models fail in different ways, so where several apply we average them rather than trust one. Peer-based models compare Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund with asset managers in our coverage, using third-party market data. Model values are estimates under stated assumptions, updated as new filings arrive; not price targets or investment advice. How each model works.

Moat

Not assessed: fewer than five years of comparable figures in the filings. AI disruption exposure for this industry: Medium.

A rules-based reading of reported figures, not a forecast and not investment advice. How the score is built: methodology.

Forecasts and guidance

Next results: November 5, 2026, after the close. Analysts expect revenue of $88m and EPS of $0.44 (range $0.42 to $0.45) for the quarter.

Analysts' consensus

Fiscal yearEPSGrowthRevenueGrowth
Current $1.80 −10% $354m −11%
Next $1.83 +1% $359m +1%

Next year's EPS estimate has moved 0.0% in 90 days, across 7 analysts.

How the EPS forecast has moved

The consensus EPS forecast for the current fiscal year is −1.4% on 90 days ago. In the last 30 days, 0 analysts raised Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund's forecast and 5 cut it.

Consensus EPS forecast Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund, last 90 days
$1.79 $1.80 $1.81 $1.82 $1.83 90 days ago 60 days ago 30 days ago 7 days ago Now Current fiscal year, 90 days ago: $1.83 Current fiscal year, 60 days ago: $1.80 Current fiscal year, 30 days ago: $1.80 Current fiscal year, 7 days ago: $1.80 Current fiscal year, Now: $1.80 $1.80 Next fiscal year, 90 days ago: $1.83 Next fiscal year, 60 days ago: $1.81 Next fiscal year, 30 days ago: $1.80 Next fiscal year, 7 days ago: $1.80 Next fiscal year, Now: $1.83 $1.83

Average of analysts' published estimates (third-party data).

View chart data
Period Current fiscal yearNext fiscal year
90 days ago $1.83$1.83
60 days ago $1.80$1.81
30 days ago $1.80$1.80
7 days ago $1.80$1.80
Now $1.80$1.83

Earnings against estimates

Quarter toEstimateActualSurprise
Jun 2026 $0.45 $0.45 −0.1%
Mar 2026 $0.46 $0.47 +2.5%
Dec 2025 $0.49 $0.49 −0.5%
Sept 2025 $0.50 $0.50 −0.6%

Adjusted EPS as companies report it, against the average analyst estimate.

Analyst recommendations

7 analysts, Oct 2026
Buy229%
Hold571%
Sell00%

Monthly trend

  1. Oct 20261157
  2. Sep 20261157
  3. Aug 20261157
  4. Jul 20261157

Counts of recommendations published by analysts covering Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund, by month. Source: Aggregated broker recommendations (third-party data). Aggregated counts only: we do not reproduce any firm's recommendation or price target, and these are not Fundamentalytics ratings.

Positioning

Short interest
5.6%
of tradable shares
Days to cover
8.54
at average volume
Short interest, 1 month
+3%
to October 15, 2026
Held by institutions
36%
of shares
Held by insiders
0.6%
of shares

Consensus figures average analysts' published estimates (third-party data); guidance is the company's own. Neither is our forecast. Short interest is reported twice a month and lags. Market data may be delayed.

This section is general information, not investment advice or a personal recommendation, and it does not take account of your objectives or circumstances. Forecasts and guidance are estimates, not promises: companies miss their own guidance and analysts' figures are often revised. Prices can fall as well as rise, and you can lose money. See our disclaimer.

Share-price performance

Market data may be delayed

Return and risk by year

Calendar year 20252026 to date
Return
MSDL−11%−5%
Industry peers (median)−4%−6%
S&P 500+18%+11%
Months that ended higher
MSDL42%46%
S&P 50075%46%
Largest fall from a high during the year
MSDL−21%−17%
S&P 500−19%−9%

Worst fall since January 24, 2024: 30% from June 21, 2024 to March 27, 2026. Getting back needed a 42% gain, and the shares have not yet recovered.

Price behaviour

52-week range
$12.76 – $15.72
From 52-week high
−9.7%
vs 50-day average
+2.0%
vs 200-day average
+0.1%
Volatility (1 year)
21%
Beta vs S&P 500
0.64

Volatility is the annualised standard deviation of daily returns. Beta 1.5 means the shares typically moved 1.5% for each 1% move in the S&P 500 over the past year. Prices to November 2, 2026.

Share price after results

Next day
4 up, 7 down
typical move ±2.6%
After a week
5 up, 6 down
typical move ±2.9%
After a month
6 up, 5 down
typical move ±4.1%
Results releasedNext dayS&P 500 next day5 days21 days
August 6, 2026 +2.3% +0.5% +3.2% +1.1%
May 7, 2026 −1.3% +0.5% −3.1% −3.7%
February 26, 2026 −5.2% −1.0% −5.3% −10.3%
November 6, 2025 −2.3% −1.0% −0.8% +4.3%
August 7, 2025 −3.0% +0.7% −4.2% −2.4%
May 8, 2025 −2.3% +0.6% +4.3% +3.2%
February 27, 2025 −2.5% −0.1% −3.7% −0.4%
November 7, 2024 +2.0% +1.2% +1.9% +5.7%
August 8, 2024 +2.4% +2.8% +2.8% +2.1%
May 9, 2024 −2.9% +0.7% −0.6% −1.4%
March 1, 2024 +1.9% +0.8% +1.9% +10.9%

From the close before the release date to the close 1, 5 and 21 trading days after it, so releases before the open and after the close are both captured. Past moves don't predict future ones.

Fundamentals

Data: SEC EDGAR XBRL company facts (as filed in 10-K/10-Q); forms . Generated November 3, 2026. Definitions in our methodology.

Who owns it

Funds buying and selling
Reported value
$584M
Institutions reporting
140
Shares held vs prior quarter
▲ 7.9%
Positions opened / closed
23 / 21

Top buyers and sellers, Q2 2026: 71 institutions bought and 63 sold ; the biggest buyer was Lunate Capital Ltd (+1.1M shares) and the biggest seller Rivernorth Capital Management, LLC (−1.1M). See which funds bought and sold →

Largest reported holders, June 30, 2026
Manager Value Shares Share of 13F value Shares QoQ
Morgan Stanley $238M 15.7M 40.7% ▼ 1.0%
UBS Group AG $39M 2.6M 6.7% ▲ 61.7%
Van Eck Associates Corp $30.5M 2.0M 5.2% ▲ 40.5%
Generali Asset Management Spa Sgr $27.7M 1.8M 4.7% 0.0%
Lunate Capital Ltd $16.7M 1.1M 2.9% New
Russell Investments Group, Ltd. $16.1M 1.1M 2.8% ▲ 47.1%
Two Sigma Investments, LP $13.5M 893K 2.3% ▲ 0.4%
Muzinich & Co., Inc. $12.7M 839K 2.2% ▲ 9.3%
Ares Management LLC $11.7M 775K 2.0% ▲ 88.1%
Ensign Peak Advisors, Inc $11.3M 748K 1.9% New
Altshuler Shaham Ltd $9.8M 650K 1.7% 0.0%
American Financial Group Inc $9.5M 632K 1.6% 0.0%

From Form 13F filings with the SEC ( quarterly data sets), as reported by each manager for June 30, 2026 and filed up to 45 days later. 13F reports cover long US-listed positions of managers above $100M only, so this is not Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund's complete shareholder register. Values are as reported by the filers ; 2 inconsistently scaled filing rows were excluded.

Insider trading activity

Full insider history and chart
Insider purchases History → $399,936 7 trades by 6 insiders, last 12 months Insider sales History → $0 0 trades by 0 insiders
Net ▲ $399,936 net buying
Insider Date Trade Shares Price Value
Day Jeff M. Co-President March 5, 2026 Buy 5,000 $14.90 $74,500
Miller David N Director March 3, 2026 Buy 5,000 $14.69 $73,450
Mizrachi Orit See Remarks March 3, 2026 Buy 1,000 $14.49 $14,490
Occi Michael Jr. Chief Executive Officer March 2, 2026 Buy 7,000 $14.87 $104,090
Miller David N Director March 2, 2026 Buy 5,000 $14.68 $73,400
Krishnan Ashwin Chief Investment Officer November 11, 2025 Buy 3,000 $16.72 $50,160
Frank Bruce D Director November 10, 2025 Buy 600 $16.41 $9,846

From insiders' Form 4 filings with the SEC. Excludes awards, option exercises and shares withheld for tax. "Pre-set plan" means the filing marks the trade as made under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. See every insider trade since five years ago, on a price chart.

Earnings dates and SEC filings

Results announcements

Next expected around November 5, 2026 estimated from the company's past filing pattern, not announced

  • August 6, 2026
  • May 7, 2026
  • February 26, 2026
  • November 6, 2025
  • August 7, 2025
  • May 8, 2025

Recent SEC filings

Data status

When each part of this page on Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund was last updated.

DataLast updatedSource
Share priceExchange closing prices
News and updatesCompany releases and SEC 8-K filings
Analyst estimatesAggregated analyst estimates
Valuation and scoresOur models, from the filed figures

How we build and check these figures: methodology and data sources.

Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund in brief

What does Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund do?
Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund is a US-listed company in the asset management & custody banks industry. Its financial year ends in December.
What is Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund's stock ticker?
Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund trades under the ticker MSDL on NYSE. This page brings together its financial statements, valuation models, ownership and recent company updates.
Who are Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund's largest institutional shareholders?
By value reported in 13F filings for June 30, 2026, the largest reported holders are Morgan Stanley, UBS Group AG and Van Eck Associates Corp. 13F reports cover long US-listed positions of managers above $100M, filed up to 45 days after quarter end.
Are insiders buying or selling Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund stock?
Over the last 12 months, Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund's directors and officers reported 7 open-market purchases and 0 sales on Form 4. The insider trading page charts every trade.
When is Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund's next earnings date?
Around November 5, 2026, estimated from the spacing of its past results announcements (8-K filings). That is an estimate, not a confirmed date — Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund announces its own schedule.