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Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (NCDL) stock

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NYSE: NCDL NYSE Asset Management & Custody Banks Next results ~February 1, 2027

Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. is a US-listed company in the asset management & custody banks industry. Its financial year ends in December.

Stock price today

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Third-party market data · may be delayed

Model estimate per share

~$19

Valuation models combined (5)

Base case. Range ~$14–$26. Weighted average of 5 models (forward price-to-earnings vs peers, residual income, justified price-to-book, price-to-book vs peers, dividend discount (two-stage)), the forward price-to-earnings vs peers counting double.

Price vs value

No Buy/Hold/Sell rating is issued: limited reported history: available models are shown without a Buy/Hold/Sell rating.

Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. valuation: adjust assumptions and compare models →

Who’s trading

What company insiders, investment funds and members of Congress have been doing with the stock, from their own filings.

  • Insiders8 buying, 0 selling15 purchases and 0 sales by directors and officers, last 12 monthsInsider trades
  • Funds31 adding, 35 cuttingOf 8 active managers that changed their stake, 1 added; quarter to June 30, 2026Fund buyers and sellers

The Fundamentalytics view

Next results ~February 1, 2027 (estimated)

Current signal Share count shrinking (buybacks): Diluted shares outstanding fell 4.1% year over year.

Assembled from SEC-filed figures — the full workings are on this page and in our methodology. Observations, not recommendations.

Highlights

How we pick these

Strengths

  • Shrinking share count. Diluted shares fell 4.1% in a year, so each share owns more of the business.

Things to watch

  • Missing expectations. Earnings per share fell short of the consensus estimate in 2 of the last four quarters.
  • Earnings expected to fall. The consensus expects earnings per share to fall 3% next year.

Latest results

Earnings per share
$0.41 against an average estimate of $0.39: beat by 5.1%
Share reaction
+2.6% in the first session after the results on August 6, 2026, against +0.5% for the S&P 500

Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending's figures from its SEC filings and results release; estimates are the analysts' average. Not a recommendation.

Price chart

  • 1 day+2.1%
  • 1 week+8.6%
  • 1 month+3.4%
  • This year-6.2%
  • 1 year-10.4%
  • S&P 500 this year+11.2%

Closing prices to 2026-11-02. Price change only, dividends excluded.

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Third-party market data · may be delayed

At a glance

Trailing twelve months, from SEC filings

Profitability

EPS (TTM, diluted)
$0.90

Growth

Share count change
−4.1%

Earnings

Last results
November 3, 2026
Next results (est.)
February 1, 2027

News & updates

Updated November 3, 2026

Company announcements, filed results and changes that matter to shareholders.

  1. Results
  2. Results
  3. Agreement

Refreshed hourly when new source data is available. Summaries are checked against company releases and SEC filings. Company announcement headlines are labelled when a checked summary is unavailable.

Valuation

Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. valuation models and calculator

Fundamentalytics rating

model v1.6 · 2026-11-03

Not rated: limited reported history: available models are shown without a Buy/Hold/Sell rating.

Valuation models

We value Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. as an asset manager, broker or exchange, with every model that fits that kind of business. Cost of equity 8%: the 10-year Treasury yield (4.9%) plus a beta of 0.69 times a 4.5% equity risk premium.

Value per share by model
Model Value per share In the combined value?
Forward price-to-earnings vs peers Next year's consensus earnings per share times peers' typical (harmonic-mean) forward price-to-earnings. Uses analysts' consensus estimates (third-party data), not our forecasts. ~$14 ~$12–$18 Primary model, counts double
Residual income Book value plus the present value of returns above the cost of equity, fading over ten years. ~$19 ~$15–$25 Included
Justified price-to-book Book value times (return on equity - growth) / (cost of equity - growth): steady-state returns. ~$20 ~$18–$23 Included
Price-to-book vs peers Book value per share times peers' typical (harmonic-mean) price-to-book. ~$26 ~$27–$69 Included
Dividend discount (two-stage) Dividends for five years at the growth the business can fund, then a steady payout and growth. ~$21 ~$18–$26 Included
Combined value Weighted average of the models that apply: the primary model (forward price-to-earnings vs peers) counts double. Models more than 5x or less than 0.2x the share price, or more than 3x away from the other models' median, are left out. ~$19 ~$14–$26 5 models

Different models fail in different ways, so where several apply we average them rather than trust one. Peer-based models compare Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. with asset managers in our coverage, using third-party market data. Model values are estimates under stated assumptions, updated as new filings arrive; not price targets or investment advice. How each model works.

Moat

Not assessed: fewer than five years of comparable figures in the filings. AI disruption exposure for this industry: Medium.

A rules-based reading of reported figures, not a forecast and not investment advice. How the score is built: methodology.

Forecasts and guidance

Analysts' consensus

Fiscal yearEPSGrowthRevenueGrowth
Current $1.58 −15% $179m −14%
Next $1.54 −3% $176m −2%

Next year's EPS estimate has moved +1.9% in 90 days, across 5 analysts.

How the EPS forecast has moved

The consensus EPS forecast for the current fiscal year is +1.1% on 90 days ago. In the last 30 days, 2 analysts raised Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp.'s forecast and 1 cut it.

Consensus EPS forecast Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp., last 90 days
$1.50 $1.52 $1.54 $1.56 $1.58 $1.60 90 days ago 60 days ago 30 days ago 7 days ago Now Current fiscal year, 90 days ago: $1.57 Current fiscal year, 60 days ago: $1.58 Current fiscal year, 30 days ago: $1.58 Current fiscal year, 7 days ago: $1.58 Current fiscal year, Now: $1.58 $1.58 Next fiscal year, 90 days ago: $1.51 Next fiscal year, 60 days ago: $1.53 Next fiscal year, 30 days ago: $1.54 Next fiscal year, 7 days ago: $1.54 Next fiscal year, Now: $1.54 $1.54

Average of analysts' published estimates (third-party data).

View chart data
Period Current fiscal yearNext fiscal year
90 days ago $1.57$1.51
60 days ago $1.58$1.53
30 days ago $1.58$1.54
7 days ago $1.58$1.54
Now $1.58$1.54

Earnings against estimates

Quarter toEstimateActualSurprise
Jun 2026 $0.39 $0.41 +5.1%
Mar 2026 $0.42 $0.41 −3.3%
Dec 2025 $0.43 $0.44 +3.3%
Sept 2025 $0.45 $0.43 −4.5%

Adjusted EPS as companies report it, against the average analyst estimate.

Analyst recommendations

5 analysts, Oct 2026
Buy360%
Hold120%
Sell120%

Monthly trend

  1. Oct 20263115
  2. Sep 20263115
  3. Aug 20262215
  4. Jul 2026235

Counts of recommendations published by analysts covering Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp., by month. Source: Aggregated broker recommendations (third-party data). Aggregated counts only: we do not reproduce any firm's recommendation or price target, and these are not Fundamentalytics ratings.

Positioning

Short interest
1.6%
of tradable shares
Days to cover
2.49
at average volume
Short interest, 1 month
+13%
to October 15, 2026
Held by institutions
32%
of shares
Held by insiders
0.0%
of shares

Consensus figures average analysts' published estimates (third-party data); guidance is the company's own. Neither is our forecast. Short interest is reported twice a month and lags. Market data may be delayed.

This section is general information, not investment advice or a personal recommendation, and it does not take account of your objectives or circumstances. Forecasts and guidance are estimates, not promises: companies miss their own guidance and analysts' figures are often revised. Prices can fall as well as rise, and you can lose money. See our disclaimer.

Share-price performance

Market data may be delayed

Return and risk by year

Calendar year 20252026 to date
Return
NCDL−10%−6%
Industry peers (median)−4%−6%
S&P 500+18%+11%
Months that ended higher
NCDL58%46%
S&P 50075%46%
Largest fall from a high during the year
NCDL−20%−25%
S&P 500−19%−9%

Worst fall since January 25, 2024: 29% from July 17, 2025 to October 19, 2026. Getting back needed a 41% gain, and the shares have not yet recovered.

Price behaviour

52-week range
$10.39 – $13.92
From 52-week high
−18.2%
vs 50-day average
+0.7%
vs 200-day average
−5.6%
Volatility (1 year)
24%
Beta vs S&P 500
0.57

Volatility is the annualised standard deviation of daily returns. Beta 1.5 means the shares typically moved 1.5% for each 1% move in the S&P 500 over the past year. Prices to November 2, 2026.

Share price after results

Next day
4 up, 6 down
typical move ±2.4%
After a week
5 up, 5 down
typical move ±2.4%
After a month
7 up, 3 down
typical move ±3.8%
Results releasedNext dayS&P 500 next day5 days21 days
August 6, 2026 +2.6% +0.5% +0.9% +0.2%
May 7, 2026 −6.8% +0.5% −10.1% −14.0%
February 26, 2026 −4.7% −1.0% −1.6% −5.8%
November 4, 2025 −2.5% −0.8% −1.3% +1.6%
August 6, 2025 +0.6% +0.7% +2.3% +0.1%
May 8, 2025 −4.6% +0.6% +0.3% +4.2%
February 27, 2025 −1.0% −0.1% −3.8% −2.6%
November 7, 2024 −0.1% +1.2% +0.8% +0.9%
May 9, 2024 +0.1% +0.7% +0.5% +1.9%
February 27, 2024 +0.9% +0.1% −2.2% +7.0%

From the close before the release date to the close 1, 5 and 21 trading days after it, so releases before the open and after the close are both captured. Past moves don't predict future ones.

Fundamentals

Data: SEC EDGAR XBRL company facts (as filed in 10-K/10-Q); forms 10-K, 10-Q. Generated November 3, 2026. Definitions in our methodology.

Dividends, buybacks and capital spending

FY2026 Q3 TTM
Buybacks (TTM)
$0
Dividends (TTM)
$82.9M
Buybacks, last 3 fiscal years
$99.3M
Diluted share count
−4.1%
year over year
Dividend payout ratio
188%
of net income paid out

Who owns it

Funds buying and selling
Reported value
$195M
Institutions reporting
68
Shares held vs prior quarter
▲ 3.1%
Positions opened / closed
12 / 11

Top buyers and sellers, Q2 2026: 31 institutions bought and 35 sold ; the biggest buyer was Cresset Asset Management, LLC (+418K shares) and the biggest seller Diameter Capital Partners LP (−775K). See which funds bought and sold →

Largest reported holders, June 30, 2026
Manager Value Shares Share of 13F value Shares QoQ
Blue Owl Capital Holdings LP $26.6M 2.1M 13.6% 0.0%
Corient Private Wealth LP $20M 1.6M 10.3% ▼ 6.9%
UBS Group AG $12.4M 998K 6.3% ▲ 46.3%
Ares Management LLC $11.9M 959K 6.1% ▲ 66.8%
Brown Brothers Harriman & Co $11.5M 922K 5.9% 0.0%
Invesco Ltd. $11.1M 893K 5.7% 0.0%
Van Eck Associates Corp $9.5M 768K 4.9% ▲ 49.5%
Opal Wealth Advisors, LLC $7.9M 634K 4.0% ▲ 1.4%
Diameter Capital Partners LP $7.5M 605K 3.8% ▼ 56.2%
Two Sigma Investments, LP $6.9M 552K 3.5% ▼ 12.5%
Cresset Asset Management, LLC $6M 465K 3.0% ▲ 892.0%
Morgan Stanley $5.7M 456K 2.9% ▲ 23.6%

From Form 13F filings with the SEC ( quarterly data sets), as reported by each manager for June 30, 2026 and filed up to 45 days later. 13F reports cover long US-listed positions of managers above $100M only, so this is not Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp.'s complete shareholder register. Values are as reported by the filers .

Insider trading activity

Full insider history and chart
Insider purchases History → $1.4M 15 trades by 8 insiders, last 12 months Insider sales History → $0 0 trades by 0 insiders
Net ▲ $1.4M net buying
Insider Date Trade Shares Price Value
Vichness Shaul Chief Financial Off./Treasurer September 14, 2026 Buy 5,000 $12.25 $61,250
Mccally John Vice President & Secretary May 15, 2026 Buy 7,500 $13.27 $99,525
Vichness Shaul Chief Financial Off./Treasurer May 14, 2026 Buy 5,000 $13.20 $66,000
Hassen Marissa Chief Accounting Officer May 12, 2026 Buy 3,782 $13.21 $49,960
Vichness Shaul Chief Financial Off./Treasurer March 12, 2026 Buy 5,000 $13.13 $65,650
Ritchie James Joseph Director March 10, 2026 Buy 17,857 $13.71 $244,819
Linett Mat 10% owner March 6, 2026 Buy 2,000 $13.05 $26,100
Mccally John Vice President & Secretary March 5, 2026 Buy 2,000 $13.30 $26,600
Strife Jason 10% owner March 4, 2026 Buy 7,690 $13.40 $103,046
Miranda Kenneth M. Director March 3, 2026 Buy 3,000 $12.83 $38,490
Kencel Kenneth J. CEO & President March 3, 2026 Buy 10,000 $13.04 $130,400
Kencel Kenneth J. CEO & President March 3, 2026 Buy 10,000 $13.04 $130,400

From insiders' Form 4 filings with the SEC. Excludes awards, option exercises and shares withheld for tax. "Pre-set plan" means the filing marks the trade as made under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. See every insider trade since five years ago, on a price chart.

Earnings dates and SEC filings

Results announcements

Next expected around February 1, 2027 estimated from the company's past filing pattern, not announced

  • November 3, 2026
  • August 6, 2026
  • May 7, 2026
  • February 26, 2026
  • November 4, 2025
  • August 6, 2025

Recent SEC filings

Data status

When each part of this page on Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. was last updated.

DataLast updatedSource
Share priceExchange closing prices
News and updatesCompany releases and SEC 8-K filings
Analyst estimatesAggregated analyst estimates
Valuation and scoresOur models, from the filed figures

How we build and check these figures: methodology and data sources.

Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. in brief

What does Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. do?
Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. is a US-listed company in the asset management & custody banks industry. Its financial year ends in December.
What is Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp.'s stock ticker?
Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. trades under the ticker NCDL on NYSE. This page brings together its financial statements, valuation models, ownership and recent company updates.
Who are Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp.'s largest institutional shareholders?
By value reported in 13F filings for June 30, 2026, the largest reported holders are Blue Owl Capital Holdings LP, Corient Private Wealth LP and UBS Group AG. 13F reports cover long US-listed positions of managers above $100M, filed up to 45 days after quarter end.
Is Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. buying back stock, and does it pay a dividend?
Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. spent $0 on share repurchases over the trailing twelve months, and its diluted share count fell 4.1% over the year.
Does Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. pay a dividend?
Yes: Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. paid $82.9M in dividends over the trailing twelve months and a payout ratio of 187.7%.
Are insiders buying or selling Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. stock?
Over the last 12 months, Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp.'s directors and officers reported 15 open-market purchases and 0 sales on Form 4. The insider trading page charts every trade.
When is Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp.'s next earnings date?
Around February 1, 2027, estimated from the spacing of its past results announcements (8-K filings). That is an estimate, not a confirmed date — Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. announces its own schedule.