Noah Holdings LTD is a US-listed company in the asset management & custody banks industry. Its financial year ends in December.
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~$24
Valuation models combined (4)
Base case. Range ~$21–$26. Weighted average of 4 models (price-to-earnings vs peers, residual income, justified price-to-book, dividend discount (two-stage)), the price-to-earnings vs peers counting double.
Undervalued
The price is below our entire value range; our base value is 243% above it.
Price used: $6.93, November 2, 2026
Noah Holdings LTD valuation: adjust assumptions and compare models →
What company insiders, investment funds and members of Congress have been doing with the stock, from their own filings.
Revenue for the twelve months was $373m, up 4.8% on a year earlier, against a decline of 23.2% a quarter earlier. That puts it 36 of 43 for growth among the asset management & custody banks companies we cover. Our cash-flow model value is $23.86 a share, against a share price of $6.73.
Written from the company's filings and our models when each quarter's report arrives. Figures in older notes are as published at the time. Not investment advice.
Noah Holdings LTD's trailing-twelve-month revenue grew 4.8% year on year, with a free-cash-flow margin of 32.3%. Where it stands out: change in growth rate of +28.0pp ranks 6 of 43 asset management & custody banks companies we cover. Where it lags: revenue growth of 4.8% ranks 36 of 43 asset management & custody banks companies we cover.
Current signal Free cash flow diverging from earnings: TTM free cash flow grew 188.2% while net income grew 22.7%: a 165pp divergence.
Assembled from SEC-filed figures — the full workings are on this page and in our methodology. Observations, not recommendations.
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Company announcements, filed results and changes that matter to shareholders.
No recent updates are available for NOAH from the sources we follow. See filings →
We value Noah Holdings LTD as an asset manager, broker or exchange, with every model that fits that kind of business. Cost of equity 8.6%: the 10-year Treasury yield (4.9%) plus a beta of 0.8 times a 4.5% equity risk premium.
| Model | Value per share | In the combined value? |
|---|---|---|
| Price-to-earnings vs peers Earnings per share times peers' typical (harmonic-mean) price-to-earnings. | ~$21 ~$14–$37 | Primary model, counts double |
| Residual income Book value plus the present value of returns above the cost of equity, fading over ten years. | ~$24 ~$17–$35 | Included |
| Justified price-to-book Book value times (return on equity - growth) / (cost of equity - growth): steady-state returns. | ~$26 ~$22–$31 | Included |
| Price-to-book vs peers Book value per share times peers' typical (harmonic-mean) price-to-book. | ~$35 ~$34–$90 | Left out: out of range vs price (5.11x) |
| Dividend discount (two-stage) Dividends for five years at the growth the business can fund, then a steady payout and growth. | ~$26 ~$22–$33 | Included |
| Combined value Weighted average of the models that apply: the primary model (price-to-earnings vs peers) counts double. Models more than 5x or less than 0.2x the share price, or more than 3x away from the other models' median, are left out. | ~$24 ~$21–$26 | 4 models |
Different models fail in different ways, so where several apply we average them rather than trust one. Peer-based models compare Noah Holdings LTD with asset managers in our coverage, using third-party market data. Model values are estimates under stated assumptions, updated as new filings arrive; not price targets or investment advice. How each model works.
Not assessed: fewer than five years of comparable figures in the filings. AI disruption exposure for this industry: Medium.
Next results: November 24, 2026, after the close.
| Fiscal year | EPS | Growth | Revenue | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | — | — | $2.5bn | −3% |
| Next | — | — | $2.5bn | −1% |
How Noah Holdings LTD’s listed options are priced, and three ways to use them that follow from our valuation. Quotes are delayed, read November 2, 2026. Check the live chain at your broker before trading.
Not offered: fundamentals grade C+ (needs B+ or better).
We suggest selling a put only on well-rated companies, at a strike where the price you would pay if assigned (strike less premium) is at or below our fair value.
Not offered: no liquid call at or above our price target — the model says the upside is worth more than any listed strike.
For holders: sell a call at a strike at or above our fair value, so the shares are only sold at a price the model calls full value.
Not offered: the shares trade below our fair value: a collar caps upside the model expects.
For holders of a stock trading at or above our fair value: buy a put for a floor and sell a call to pay for it.
General research, not personal advice. Options can lose you more than you expect and are not suitable for everyone: put sellers can be made to buy shares that keep falling, call sellers give up gains above the strike, and results or news can move prices sharply. Chances shown are approximations from each option’s delta. Spreads, fees and early assignment are not modelled.
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved Invalid Date.
| Period | Revenue (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY14 Q4 | $129.5M |
| FY15 Q4 | $172.1M |
| FY16 Q4 | $205M |
| FY17 Q4 | $434.5M |
| FY18 Q4 | $478.5M |
| FY19 Q4 | $487.2M |
| FY20 Q4 | $506.6M |
| FY21 Q4 | $673.7M |
| FY22 Q4 | $449.5M |
| FY23 Q4 | $464M |
| FY24 Q4 | $356.3M |
| FY25 Q4 | $373.3M |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved Invalid Date.
| Period | Revenue growth, TTM YoY |
|---|---|
| FY14 Q4 | 34.9% |
| FY15 Q4 | 32.9% |
| FY16 Q4 | 19.1% |
| FY17 Q4 | 112.0% |
| FY18 Q4 | 10.1% |
| FY19 Q4 | 1.8% |
| FY20 Q4 | 4.0% |
| FY21 Q4 | 33.0% |
| FY22 Q4 | -33.3% |
| FY23 Q4 | 3.2% |
| FY24 Q4 | -23.2% |
| FY25 Q4 | 4.8% |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved Invalid Date.
| Period | Operating margin (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY14 Q4 | 69.3% |
| FY15 Q4 | 50.1% |
| FY16 Q4 | 46.9% |
| FY17 Q4 | 27.5% |
| FY18 Q4 | 28.2% |
| FY19 Q4 | 27.0% |
| FY20 Q4 | 38.1% |
| FY21 Q4 | 27.9% |
| FY22 Q4 | 35.1% |
| FY23 Q4 | 33.3% |
| FY24 Q4 | 24.4% |
| FY25 Q4 | 29.8% |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved Invalid Date.
| Period | FCF margin (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY14 Q4 | 66.1% |
| FY15 Q4 | 48.3% |
| FY16 Q4 | 41.1% |
| FY17 Q4 | 16.8% |
| FY18 Q4 | 27.4% |
| FY19 Q4 | 36.1% |
| FY20 Q4 | 22.5% |
| FY21 Q4 | -17.5% |
| FY22 Q4 | 18.4% |
| FY23 Q4 | 35.2% |
| FY24 Q4 | 11.7% |
| FY25 Q4 | 32.3% |
| Fiscal year | 2009 Dec 2009 | 2010 Dec 2010 | 2011 Dec 2011 | 2012 Dec 2012 | 2013 Dec 2013 | 2014 Dec 2014 | 2015 Dec 2015 | 2016 Dec 2016 | 2017 Dec 2017 | 2018 Dec 2018 | 2019 Dec 2019 | 2020 Dec 2020 | 2021 Dec 2021 | 2022 Dec 2022 | 2023 Dec 2023 | 2024 Dec 2024 | 2025 Dec 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income | |||||||||||||||||
| Revenue | 14 | 31 | 64 | 66 | 96 | 129 | 172 | 205 | 434 | 478 | 487 | 507 | 674 | 450 | 464 | 356 | 373 |
| Gross profit | 12 | 24 | 49 | 48 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| EBITDA | 5 | 16 | 26 | 28 | 63 | 93 | 92 | 105 | 132 | 148 | 147 | 208 | 211 | 180 | 177 | 108 | 133 |
| Operating income | 5 | 16 | 25 | 26 | 61 | 90 | 86 | 96 | 119 | 135 | 131 | 193 | 188 | 158 | 155 | 87 | 111 |
| Net income | 4 | 12 | 24 | 23 | 51 | 72 | 83 | 93 | 117 | 118 | 119 | −114 | 206 | 142 | 142 | 65 | 80 |
| Diluted EPS | — | — | $4.20 | $4.05 | $9.20 | $12.85 | $14.15 | $15.90 | $19.90 | $19.40 | $19.30 | −$18.40 | — | — | $2.05 | $0.90 | $1.15 |
| Growth (year on year) | |||||||||||||||||
| Revenue | — | +117.4% | +105.3% | +3.4% | +45.9% | +34.9% | +32.9% | +19.1% | +112.0% | +10.1% | +1.8% | +4.0% | +33.0% | −33.3% | +3.2% | −23.2% | +4.8% |
| EBITDA | — | +222.2% | +62.4% | +6.0% | +127.9% | +48.0% | −1.9% | +14.6% | +25.8% | +12.2% | −1.1% | +41.9% | +1.5% | −14.5% | −1.9% | −38.8% | +23.3% |
| Operating income | — | +235.0% | +60.0% | +3.0% | +134.4% | +48.1% | −3.8% | +11.4% | +24.3% | +12.8% | −2.5% | +46.8% | −2.5% | −16.1% | −2.0% | −43.8% | +27.9% |
| Net income | — | +216.0% | +107.9% | −4.8% | +125.3% | +40.8% | +14.2% | +12.1% | +26.5% | +0.6% | +0.9% | −195.9% | — | −31.3% | +0.4% | −54.2% | +22.7% |
| Diluted EPS | — | — | — | −3.6% | +127.2% | +39.7% | +10.1% | +12.4% | +25.2% | −2.5% | −0.5% | −195.3% | — | — | — | −56.1% | +27.8% |
| Margins | |||||||||||||||||
| Gross margin | 82.4% | 78.8% | 76.7% | 72.7% | 64.4% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| EBITDA margin | 35.0% | 51.9% | 41.0% | 42.0% | 65.7% | 72.1% | 53.2% | 51.2% | 30.4% | 31.0% | 30.1% | 41.0% | 31.3% | 40.1% | 38.1% | 30.4% | 35.8% |
| Operating margin | 32.8% | 50.6% | 39.4% | 39.3% | 63.1% | 69.3% | 50.1% | 46.9% | 27.5% | 28.2% | 27.0% | 38.1% | 27.9% | 35.1% | 33.3% | 24.4% | 29.8% |
| Net margin | 25.6% | 37.2% | 37.7% | 34.7% | 53.6% | 55.9% | 48.1% | 45.2% | 27.0% | 24.7% | 24.4% | −22.5% | 30.6% | 31.5% | 30.6% | 18.3% | 21.4% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 48.6% | 65.4% | 27.8% | 42.7% | 90.8% | 66.1% | 48.3% | 41.1% | 16.8% | 27.4% | 36.1% | 22.5% | −17.5% | 18.4% | 35.2% | 11.7% | 32.3% |
| Cash flow | |||||||||||||||||
| Cash from operations | 7 | 21 | 21 | 30 | 94 | 95 | 104 | 99 | 97 | 150 | 185 | 122 | 239 | 92 | 186 | 53 | 140 |
| Capital spending | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 21 | 15 | 23 | 19 | 9 | 8 | 356 | 9 | 22 | 11 | 19 |
| Free cash flow | 7 | 20 | 18 | 28 | 87 | 86 | 83 | 84 | 73 | 131 | 176 | 114 | −118 | 83 | 163 | 42 | 120 |
| Stock-based pay | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 11 | 14 | 16 | 14 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 15 | 10 |
| Free cash flow after stock pay | 6 | 18 | 16 | 24 | 82 | 80 | 73 | 73 | 59 | 115 | 162 | 105 | −126 | 77 | 162 | 27 | 111 |
| Balance sheet | |||||||||||||||||
| Cash | 12 | 133 | 137 | 120 | 196 | 270 | 307 | 430 | 293 | 393 | 630 | 767 | 534 | 639 | 731 | 524 | 624 |
| Total debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 80 | 80 | — | 21 | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Net debt (negative = net cash) | −12 | −133 | −137 | −120 | −196 | −262 | −227 | −350 | −293 | −372 | −630 | −767 | −534 | −639 | −731 | −524 | −624 |
| Diluted shares | 3m | 4m | 6m | 6m | 6m | 6m | 6m | 6m | 6m | 6m | 6m | 6m | 68m | 68m | 69m | 70m | 70m |
| Returned to shareholders | |||||||||||||||||
| Dividends | — | — | — | 8 | 8 | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 25 | 138 | 78 |
| Buybacks | — | — | — | 9 | 12 | 12 | 7 | 2 | 5 | — | — | 43 | 58 | — | — | 7 | 7 |
| Total returned | — | — | — | 16 | 19 | 12 | 7 | 2 | 5 | — | — | 43 | 58 | — | 25 | 145 | 86 |
| Last 12 months unless stated | NOAH | PAX | RPC | SII | ALTI | ABX | Median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $373m | $382m | $313m | $285m | $277m | $267m | $858m |
| Revenue growth, last 12 months | 4.8% | 2.0% | 4.4% | 59.6% | 30.0% | 65.3% | 17.2% |
| Revenue growth, 3-year average | 57.3% | — | 11.1% | — | 23.4% | 77.1% | 10.2% |
| Revenue growth, latest quarter | — | — | 11.3% | — | 10.8% | 29.9% | 14.4% |
| Gross margin | 64.4% | 63.2% | — | — | — | 88.4% | 80.2% |
| Operating margin | 29.8% | 51.7% | 23.6% | — | −22.2% | 31.8% | 25.8% |
| Operating margin, 3-year average | 28.4% | — | 19.1% | — | −29.2% | 23.6% | 18.8% |
| Net margin | 21.4% | 22.4% | 8.7% | 23.6% | −40.9% | 10.5% | 15.2% |
| Cash from operations / revenue | 37.4% | 74.0% | 17.8% | 34.3% | 0.6% | 34.0% | 26.4% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 32.3% | 71.3% | 17.1% | 33.6% | 0.3% | 33.5% | 21.9% |
| Free-cash-flow margin, 3-year average | 10.5% | — | 20.2% | — | −18.3% | −47.5% | 17.6% |
| Stock pay / revenue | 2.6% | 9.6% | 6.7% | 0.0% | 12.8% | 8.6% | 3.7% |
| Change in share count | −0.1% | 4.4% | −1.2% | −0.2% | — | 15.0% | −0.2% |
| Measure | Company | Peer median | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth Growth | 4.8% | 17.2% | 36 of 43 |
| Change in growth rate Growth | +28.0pp | +1.0pp | 6 of 43 |
| Operating margin Profitability | 29.8% | 23.7% | 9 of 27 |
| Net margin Profitability | 21.4% | 15.2% | 18 of 43 |
| Stock pay as % of revenue Cash generation | 2.6% | 4.3% | 14 of 40 |
| Change in share count Balance sheet | -0.1% | -0.3% | 20 of 33 |
Rank 1 = best in the group (for spending, debt and dilution, lower ranks first).
| Manager | Value | Shares | Share of 13F value | Shares QoQ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fil Ltd | $67.3M | 6.7M | 27.3% | ▲ 0.6% |
| Yiheng Capital Management, L.P. | $67.1M | 6.7M | 27.2% | 0.0% |
| Franklin Resources Inc | $20.2M | 2.0M | 8.2% | ▲ 2.6% |
| Tiger Pacific Capital LP | $18.8M | 1.9M | 7.6% | 0.0% |
| Blackrock, Inc. | $12M | 1.2M | 4.9% | ▼ 3.0% |
| Platinum Investment Management Ltd | $9.9M | 994K | 4.0% | 0.0% |
| Davis Selected Advisers | $9.6M | 964K | 3.9% | ▼ 5.6% |
| Acadian Asset Management LLC | $6.3M | 633K | 2.6% | ▼ 15.3% |
| Prescott Group Capital Management, L.L.C. | $4.4M | 445K | 1.8% | 0.0% |
| Nuveen, LLC | $4.4M | 438K | 1.8% | ▼ 1.3% |
| Dimensional Fund Advisors LP | $3.8M | 383K | 1.5% | ▼ 18.3% |
| State Street Corp | $3.2M | 322K | 1.3% | ▲ 2.9% |
From Form 13F filings with the SEC ( quarterly data sets), as reported by each manager for June 30, 2026 and filed up to 45 days later. 13F reports cover long US-listed positions of managers above $100M only, so this is not Noah Holdings LTD's complete shareholder register. Values are as reported by the filers .
| Insider | Date | Trade | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wu May Yihong Director | September 30, 2026 | Sell | 4,000 | $7.90 | $31,600 |
| Wu May Yihong Director | September 30, 2026 | Sell | 1,000 | $7.90 | $7,900 |
| Wu May Yihong Director | September 30, 2026 | Sell | 1,000 | $7.89 | $7,890 |
| Wu May Yihong Director | September 30, 2026 | Sell | 1,000 | $7.88 | $7,880 |
| Wu May Yihong Director | September 30, 2026 | Sell | 1,000 | $7.86 | $7,860 |
| Wu May Yihong Director | September 30, 2026 | Sell | 1,000 | $7.87 | $7,870 |
| Wu May Yihong Director | September 29, 2026 | Sell | 500 | $7.88 | $3,940 |
| Wu May Yihong Director | September 29, 2026 | Sell | 500 | $7.91 | $3,954 |
From insiders' Form 4 filings with the SEC. Excludes awards, option exercises and shares withheld for tax. "Pre-set plan" means the filing marks the trade as made under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. See every insider trade since five years ago, on a price chart.
| Data | Last updated | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Share price | Exchange closing prices | |
| News and updates | Company releases and SEC 8-K filings | |
| Analyst estimates | Aggregated analyst estimates | |
| Valuation and scores | Our models, from the filed figures |
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