NI Holdings, Inc. is a US-listed company in the property & casualty insurance industry. Its financial year ends in December.
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~$3.7
Valuation models combined (2)
Base case. Range ~$3.5–$4.0. Weighted average of 2 models (price-to-book vs return on equity (peers), price-to-earnings vs peers).
No Buy/Hold/Sell rating is issued: only 2 valuation models apply; a rating needs 3.
NI Holdings, Inc. valuation: adjust assumptions and compare models →
What company insiders, investment funds and members of Congress have been doing with the stock, from their own filings.
Revenue for the twelve months to June 2026 was $267m, down 13.9% on a year earlier, a smaller fall than the 15.2% decline a quarter earlier. That puts it 44 of 44 for growth among the property & casualty insurance companies we cover. Our valuation models combined value is $10.21 a share, against a share price of $14.88.
Source: 10-Q filed August 7, 2026 on SEC EDGAR · Financials · Valuation
Written from the company's filings and our models when each quarter's report arrives. Figures in older notes are as published at the time. Not investment advice.
NI Holdings, Inc.'s trailing-twelve-month revenue fell 13.9% year on year, with a free-cash-flow margin of -12.2%. Where it stands out: stock pay as % of revenue of 0.3% ranks 5 of 34 property & casualty insurance companies we cover. Where it lags: revenue growth of -13.9% ranks 47 of 48 property & casualty insurance companies we cover.
Current signal Free-cash-flow margin near historical low: TTM FCF margin of -12.2% is below every prior reading in its 38-quarter history.
Assembled from SEC-filed figures — the full workings are on this page and in our methodology. Observations, not recommendations.
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Company announcements, filed results and changes that matter to shareholders.
We value NI Holdings, Inc. as an insurer, with every model that fits that kind of business. Cost of equity 7.2%: the 10-year Treasury yield (4.9%) plus a beta of 0.5 times a 4.5% equity risk premium.
| Model | Value per share | In the combined value? |
|---|---|---|
| Residual income Book value plus the present value of returns above the cost of equity, fading over ten years. | — | Does not apply: the model gives no positive value |
| Justified price-to-book Book value times (return on equity - growth) / (cost of equity - growth): steady-state returns. | — | Does not apply: return on equity is not positive |
| Price-to-book vs return on equity (peers) The price-to-book that peers with this return on equity trade on, from a line fitted across peers. | ~$4.0 | Included |
| Price-to-book vs peers Book value per share times peers' typical (harmonic-mean) price-to-book. | ~$16 ~$13–$27 | Left out: far from the other models (more than 3x away from their median) |
| Price-to-earnings vs peers Earnings per share times peers' typical (harmonic-mean) price-to-earnings. | ~$3.5 ~$3.2–$5.6 | Included |
| Dividend discount (two-stage) Dividends for five years at the growth the business can fund, then a steady payout and growth. | — | Does not apply: pays no regular dividend |
| Combined value Weighted average of the models that apply: the primary model (residual income) counts double. Models more than 5x or less than 0.2x the share price, or more than 3x away from the other models' median, are left out. | ~$3.7 ~$3.5–$4.0 | 2 models |
Different models fail in different ways, so where several apply we average them rather than trust one. Peer-based models compare NI Holdings, Inc. with property, casualty and specialty insurers in our coverage, using third-party market data. Model values are estimates under stated assumptions, updated as new filings arrive; not price targets or investment advice. How each model works.
Moderate moat
How hard NI Holdings's competitive advantage looks for rivals to wear away, judged from 10 years of its own filings: returns on capital, pricing power, profit durability, cash conversion and discipline.
Net income has been a median 1.3% of total assets over 10 years.
Net margin has been a median 2.9%; its worst year was -13.7%.
The diluted share count fell 3.5% over five years; stock-based pay has been a median 0.5% of revenue.
AI disruption exposure: Medium. In this industry, AI could change how the product is made or sold, without replacing the core asset. The score above includes a 5-point deduction for that exposure (58 before it).
Next results: November 6, 2026, after the close.
No analyst estimates are published for NI Holdings, Inc.: too few analysts cover it.
Last 12 months +14.6%
| Part | Then | Now | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (last 12 months) | $310m | $267m | −13.9% |
| Net margin | 0.5% | 2.9% | +485.8% |
| P/E multiple | 179.6x | 40.4x | −77.5% |
| Share count | 21m | 21m | +1.0% |
Biggest factor: net margin.
Last 3 years +17.0%
| Part | Then | Now | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (last 12 months) | $288m | $267m | −7.3% |
| P/S multiple | 1.0x | 1.2x | +24.2% |
| Share count | 21m | 21m | +1.6% |
Biggest factor: p/s multiple. Loss-making at one end, so the split uses price/sales.
| Calendar year | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 to date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return | ||||||
| NODK | +15% | −30% | −2% | +21% | −15% | +14% |
| Industry peers (median) | +14% | +1% | +9% | +31% | +9% | +10% |
| S&P 500 | +29% | −18% | +26% | +25% | +18% | +11% |
| Months that ended higher | ||||||
| NODK | 58% | 33% | 50% | 67% | 42% | 46% |
| S&P 500 | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 75% | 46% |
| Largest fall from a high during the year | ||||||
| NODK | −14% | −34% | −19% | −17% | −22% | −11% |
| S&P 500 | −5% | −25% | −10% | −8% | −19% | −9% |
Worst fall since March 16, 2017: 45% from June 17, 2019 to March 20, 2020. Getting back needed a 81% gain, reached on March 5, 2021, 350 days after the low.
| Results released | Next day | S&P 500 next day | 5 days | 21 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 7, 2026 | −1.4% | +0.6% | −1.6% | −3.2% |
| May 8, 2026 | +3.5% | +1.1% | +6.8% | +17.7% |
| March 6, 2026 | −3.0% | −0.4% | −0.6% | −4.5% |
| November 7, 2025 | −1.1% | +1.7% | +3.3% | +2.5% |
| August 8, 2025 | −2.5% | +0.6% | −4.0% | +2.2% |
| May 9, 2025 | +5.5% | +3.2% | +4.1% | +4.8% |
| March 7, 2025 | −1.8% | −2.1% | −0.8% | −7.6% |
| November 7, 2024 | −0.3% | +1.2% | −2.1% | +6.4% |
| August 8, 2024 | +1.1% | +2.8% | −5.7% | +3.6% |
| May 9, 2024 | +3.5% | +0.7% | +11.2% | +4.1% |
| March 15, 2024 | +5.6% | −0.1% | 0.0% | −1.6% |
| November 7, 2023 | −0.1% | +0.4% | +4.7% | +4.9% |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved October 29, 2026.
| Period | Revenue (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY23 Q3 | $277.3M |
| FY23 Q4 | $319.4M |
| FY24 Q1 | $312.3M |
| FY24 Q2 | $319M |
| FY24 Q3 | $330M |
| FY24 Q4 | $325.2M |
| FY25 Q1 | $322.1M |
| FY25 Q2 | $310.4M |
| FY25 Q3 | $298M |
| FY25 Q4 | $285.1M |
| FY26 Q1 | $273.2M |
| FY26 Q2 | $267.4M |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved October 29, 2026.
| Period | Revenue growth, TTM YoY |
|---|---|
| FY23 Q3 | -12.4% |
| FY23 Q4 | 19.3% |
| FY24 Q1 | 10.3% |
| FY24 Q2 | 10.6% |
| FY24 Q3 | 19.0% |
| FY24 Q4 | 1.8% |
| FY25 Q1 | 3.2% |
| FY25 Q2 | -2.7% |
| FY25 Q3 | -9.7% |
| FY25 Q4 | -12.3% |
| FY26 Q1 | -15.2% |
| FY26 Q2 | -13.9% |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved October 29, 2026.
| Period | FCF margin (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY23 Q3 | 6.6% |
| FY23 Q4 | 15.8% |
| FY24 Q1 | 22.9% |
| FY24 Q2 | 20.5% |
| FY24 Q3 | 17.5% |
| FY24 Q4 | 11.5% |
| FY25 Q1 | 9.6% |
| FY25 Q2 | 6.3% |
| FY25 Q3 | -2.4% |
| FY25 Q4 | -5.4% |
| FY26 Q1 | -10.0% |
| FY26 Q2 | -12.2% |
| Fiscal year | 2014 Dec 2014 | 2015 Dec 2015 | 2016 Dec 2016 | 2017 Dec 2017 | 2018 Dec 2018 | 2019 Dec 2019 | 2020 Dec 2020 | 2021 Dec 2021 | 2022 Dec 2022 | 2023 Dec 2023 | 2024 Dec 2024 | 2025 Dec 2025 | LTM Jun 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income | |||||||||||||
| Revenue | 138 | 146 | 164 | 189 | 212 | 271 | 306 | 324 | 268 | 304 | 325 | 285 | 267 |
| Gross profit | — | 56 | 34 | 57 | 77 | 77 | 115 | 83 | 30 | 106 | 103 | 70 | 83 |
| Net income | 14 | 17 | 5 | 16 | 31 | 26 | 40 | 8 | −53 | −5 | −6 | −10 | 8 |
| Diluted EPS | — | — | — | $0.71 | $1.39 | $1.19 | $1.84 | $0.39 | −$2.49 | −$0.26 | −$0.29 | −$0.50 | $0.37 |
| Growth (year on year) | |||||||||||||
| Revenue | — | +5.8% | +12.4% | +15.5% | +12.3% | +27.5% | +13.1% | +5.8% | −17.3% | +13.5% | +7.0% | −12.3% | −13.9% |
| Net income | — | +26.7% | −73.9% | +251.4% | +94.4% | −15.1% | +53.0% | −79.2% | −730.9% | — | — | — | — |
| Diluted EPS | — | — | — | — | +95.8% | −14.4% | +54.6% | −78.8% | −738.5% | — | — | — | — |
| Margins | |||||||||||||
| Gross margin | — | 38.2% | 20.9% | 30.0% | 36.1% | 28.3% | 37.6% | 25.7% | 11.2% | 34.7% | 31.6% | 24.5% | 31.0% |
| Net margin | 10.0% | 12.0% | 2.8% | 8.5% | 14.6% | 9.8% | 13.2% | 2.6% | −19.8% | −1.8% | −1.9% | −3.7% | 2.9% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 7.1% | 11.4% | 4.1% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 16.4% | 8.8% | −6.0% | 16.6% | 11.5% | −5.4% | −12.2% |
| Cash flow | |||||||||||||
| Cash from operations | 10 | 17 | 7 | 18 | 21 | 26 | 51 | 29 | −15 | 51 | 39 | −15 | −33 |
| Capital spending | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Free cash flow | 10 | 17 | 7 | 17 | 19 | 24 | 50 | 28 | −16 | 50 | 38 | −15 | −33 |
| Stock-based pay | — | — | — | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | −0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Free cash flow after stock pay | — | — | — | 17 | 18 | 23 | 48 | 26 | −16 | 49 | 37 | −16 | −33 |
| Balance sheet | |||||||||||||
| Cash | 22 | 15 | 18 | 28 | 69 | 62 | 101 | 71 | 47 | 41 | 51 | 52 | 52 |
| Total debt | 3 | 3 | 3 | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Net debt (negative = net cash) | −19 | −12 | −15 | −28 | −69 | −62 | −101 | −71 | −47 | −39 | −49 | −49 | −49 |
| Diluted shares | — | — | — | 23m | 22m | 22m | 22m | 22m | 21m | 21m | 21m | 21m | 21m |
| Returned to shareholders | |||||||||||||
| Dividends | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 8 | 7 | — |
| Buybacks | — | — | — | 8 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 4 | 4 | — | — | — | — |
| Total returned | — | — | — | 8 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 4 | 4 | — | 8 | 7 | — |
| Quarter | 2024 Q3 Sept 2024 | 2024 Q4 Dec 2024 | 2025 Q1 Mar 2025 | 2025 Q2 Jun 2025 | 2025 Q3 Sept 2025 | 2025 Q4 Dec 2025 | 2026 Q1 Mar 2026 | 2026 Q2 Jun 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income | ||||||||
| Revenue | 89 | 74 | 71 | 76 | 77 | 61 | 60 | 70 |
| Gross profit | 18 | 39 | 29 | 6 | 16 | 19 | 32 | 17 |
| Net income | −3 | 10 | 6 | −12 | −2 | −3 | 13 | 0 |
| Diluted EPS | −$0.13 | $0.47 | $0.31 | −$0.57 | −$0.08 | −$0.15 | $0.60 | $0.01 |
| Growth (year on year) | ||||||||
| Revenue | +14.0% | −6.1% | −4.1% | −13.4% | −14.0% | −17.5% | −16.6% | −7.7% |
| Net income | — | +48.6% | +0.6% | — | — | −132.0% | +93.6% | — |
| Diluted EPS | — | +51.6% | +3.3% | — | — | −131.9% | +93.5% | — |
| Margins | ||||||||
| Gross margin | 20.4% | 52.7% | 40.6% | 8.4% | 20.5% | 30.8% | 53.3% | 23.6% |
| Net margin | −3.0% | 13.3% | 9.0% | −15.8% | −2.2% | −5.2% | 21.0% | 0.2% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | −20.4% | 29.1% | 13.8% | 8.2% | −58.6% | 21.7% | −3.2% | 1.3% |
| Cash flow | ||||||||
| Cash from operations | −18 | 22 | 10 | 6 | −45 | 13 | −2 | 1 |
| Capital spending | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Free cash flow | −18 | 22 | 10 | 6 | −45 | 13 | −2 | 1 |
| Stock-based pay | −1 | −0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −0 | 0 | 0 |
| Free cash flow after stock pay | −18 | 22 | 9 | 6 | −45 | 13 | −2 | 1 |
| Last 12 months unless stated | NODK | ITIC | KINS | OSG | ACIC | AMSF | Median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $267m | $293m | $238m | $321m | $331m | $333m | $1.7bn |
| Revenue growth, last 12 months | −13.9% | 8.7% | 28.0% | 26.8% | 3.3% | 7.7% | 8.0% |
| Revenue growth, 3-year average | −2.5% | 5.0% | 17.6% | — | 25.5% | 2.9% | 9.5% |
| Revenue growth, latest quarter | −7.7% | 17.5% | 25.9% | 51.0% | −4.5% | −2.6% | 4.2% |
| Net margin | 2.9% | 13.8% | 14.8% | −49.6% | 30.3% | 12.1% | 10.5% |
| Cash from operations / revenue | −12.2% | 10.9% | 36.3% | −19.4% | −9.3% | 3.8% | 18.2% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | −12.2% | 9.0% | 34.9% | −34.2% | −9.4% | 3.7% | 17.6% |
| Free-cash-flow margin, 3-year average | 4.8% | 8.1% | 28.0% | 16.7% | 60.7% | 4.0% | 16.5% |
| Stock pay / revenue | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 4.3% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.6% |
| Change in share count | −1.0% | −0.0% | 4.7% | −3.8% | 0.4% | −1.7% | −0.7% |
| Measure | Company | Peer median | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth Growth | -13.9% | 8.3% | 47 of 48 |
| Change in growth rate Growth | +1.3pp | -0.7pp | 10 of 48 |
| Net margin Profitability | 2.9% | 10.8% | 39 of 48 |
| Stock pay as % of revenue Cash generation | 0.3% | 0.7% | 5 of 34 |
| Change in share count Balance sheet | -1.0% | -0.7% | 21 of 47 |
Rank 1 = best in the group (for spending, debt and dilution, lower ranks first).
| Manager | Value | Shares | Share of 13F value | Shares QoQ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M3F, Inc. | $24.4M | 1.6M | 30.1% | ▼ 6.1% |
| Newtyn Management, LLC | $10.5M | 670K | 13.0% | 0.0% |
| Blackrock, Inc. | $8.6M | 546K | 10.6% | ▲ 3.2% |
| Dimensional Fund Advisors LP | $5.7M | 361K | 7.0% | ▲ 5.7% |
| Vanguard Capital Management LLC | $4.5M | 288K | 5.6% | ▼ 2.2% |
| Geode Capital Management, LLC | $2.9M | 182K | 3.5% | ▲ 18.1% |
| Morgan Stanley | $2.9M | 182K | 3.5% | ▲ 372.9% |
| State Street Corp | $2.1M | 135K | 2.6% | ▼ 2.8% |
| Minerva Advisors LLC | $2M | 130K | 2.5% | 0.0% |
| TCW Group Inc | $2M | 127K | 2.5% | ▼ 39.6% |
| Arbiter Partners Capital Management LLC | $2M | 125K | 2.4% | ▲ 143.6% |
| Orchard Capital Management, LLC | $1.9M | 121K | 2.3% | ▲ 0.9% |
From Form 13F filings with the SEC ( quarterly data sets), as reported by each manager for June 30, 2026 and filed up to 45 days later. 13F reports cover long US-listed positions of managers above $100M only, so this is not NI Holdings, Inc.'s complete shareholder register. Values are as reported by the filers .
From insiders' Form 4 filings with the SEC. Excludes awards, option exercises and shares withheld for tax. "Pre-set plan" means the filing marks the trade as made under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. See every insider trade since five years ago, on a price chart.
Next expected around November 6, 2026 estimated from the company's past filing pattern, not announced
| Data | Last updated | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Share price | Exchange closing prices | |
| Financial statements | SEC 10-K and 10-Q filings | |
| News and updates | Company releases and SEC 8-K filings | |
| Analyst estimates | Aggregated analyst estimates | |
| Valuation and scores | Our models, from the filed figures |
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