PDD Holdings Inc. is a US-listed company in the broadline retail industry. Its financial year ends in December.
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Under review: our cash-flow value ($405.48) is 5.01x the share price ($80.92); a gap this wide almost always means a data problem.
Under review: our cash-flow value ($405.48) is 5.01x the share price ($80.92); a gap this wide almost always means a data problem. We'll show the comparison once resolved.
PDD Holdings Inc. valuation: adjust assumptions and compare models →
What company insiders, investment funds and members of Congress have been doing with the stock, from their own filings.
Revenue for the twelve months was $60.1bn, up 9.8% on a year earlier, slower than the 56.4% growth a quarter earlier. Free-cash-flow margin fell to 24.8% from 30.6% a year earlier. Operating margin widened to 21.6% from 7.3%. Against its peers on growth, profitability, cash generation and balance sheet, it grades C+. It passes 2 of our 2 financial-health checks.
Our model value for PDD is under review, so past values are not shown until it is resolved.
Written from the company's filings and our models when each quarter's report arrives. Figures in older notes are as published at the time. Not investment advice.
PDD Holdings Inc.'s trailing-twelve-month revenue grew 9.8% year on year, with a free-cash-flow margin of 24.8%. Where it stands out: operating margin of 21.6% ranks 1 of 22 broadline retail companies we cover. Where it lags: change in growth rate of -46.6pp ranks 22 of 23 broadline retail companies we cover.
Our discounted-cash-flow model values the business at ~$410 per share in the base case (~$320–$520 across growth scenarios) — model values under stated assumptions, not a price target.
Current signal Revenue growth decelerating: TTM revenue growth slowed to 9.8% (-46.6pp vs the prior quarter), the 2nd consecutive quarterly slowdown.
Assembled from SEC-filed figures — the full workings are on this page and in our methodology. Observations, not recommendations.
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Company announcements, filed results and changes that matter to shareholders.
No recent updates are available for PDD from the sources we follow. See filings →
Our value per share comes from a discounted-cash-flow model of PDD Holdings Inc.'s free cash flow after stock-based pay ( $16.7B, FY2025 Q4 TTM, with after-tax interest added back): growth for five years as below (the first two years from forecasts, guidance and the company's record), fading to 2.5%, discounted at 8.5%, then cash added and debt and other claims subtracted. These are model values under stated assumptions, not price targets or recommendations.
The inputs used by the models below have passed source checks. Individual model values are available below and in the interactive valuator. Their differences are shown explicitly; the platform combined value and recommendation remain withheld.
We value PDD Holdings Inc. as an operating company, with every model that fits that kind of business. Cost of equity 9.6%: the 10-year Treasury yield (4.9%) plus a beta of 1.04 times a 4.5% equity risk premium.
| Model | Value per share | In the combined value? |
|---|---|---|
| Cash-flow model (DCF) Free cash flow to the firm (after stock pay, with after-tax interest added back), grown then faded to 2.5%, discounted at 8.5% as the firm rate, less debt and other claims. | ~$410 ~$320–$520 | Primary model, counts double |
| Price-to-earnings vs peers Earnings per share times peers' typical (harmonic-mean) price-to-earnings. | ~$120 ~$82–$190 | Included |
| Residual income Book value plus the present value of returns above the cost of equity, fading over ten years. | ~$360 ~$250–$510 | Included |
| Justified price-to-book Book value times (return on equity - growth) / (cost of equity - growth): steady-state returns. | ~$180 ~$150–$210 | Included |
| Combined value Individual source-checked model scenarios are available. The platform combined value and recommendation remain withheld. | — | Combined value withheld. Review the individual models and their assumptions. |
Different models fail in different ways, so where several apply we average them rather than trust one. Peer-based models compare PDD Holdings Inc. with Broadline Retail in our coverage, using third-party market data. Model values are estimates under stated assumptions, updated as new filings arrive; not price targets or investment advice. How each model works.
Not assessed: fewer than five years of comparable figures in the filings. AI disruption exposure for this industry: Medium.
Next results: November 18, 2026, before the open.
No analyst estimates are published for PDD Holdings Inc.: too few analysts cover it.
| Quarter to | Estimate | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2026 | $18.35 | $19.33 | +5.3% |
| Mar 2026 | $16.37 | $9.51 | −41.9% |
| Dec 2025 | $21.02 | $17.69 | −15.8% |
| Sept 2025 | $16.57 | $21.08 | +27.2% |
Adjusted EPS as companies report it, against the average analyst estimate.
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved Invalid Date.
| Period | Revenue (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY16 Q4 | $76.1M |
| FY17 Q4 | $258.2M |
| FY18 Q4 | $2B |
| FY19 Q4 | $4.4B |
| FY20 Q4 | $8.6B |
| FY21 Q4 | $14.6B |
| FY22 Q4 | $19.4B |
| FY23 Q4 | $35B |
| FY24 Q4 | $54.7B |
| FY25 Q4 | $60.1B |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved Invalid Date.
| Period | Revenue growth, TTM YoY |
|---|---|
| FY17 Q4 | 239.5% |
| FY18 Q4 | 670.0% |
| FY19 Q4 | 119.6% |
| FY20 Q4 | 97.5% |
| FY21 Q4 | 68.9% |
| FY22 Q4 | 33.5% |
| FY23 Q4 | 80.0% |
| FY24 Q4 | 56.4% |
| FY25 Q4 | 9.8% |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved Invalid Date.
| Period | Operating margin (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY16 Q4 | -56.7% |
| FY17 Q4 | -34.2% |
| FY18 Q4 | -82.3% |
| FY19 Q4 | -28.3% |
| FY20 Q4 | -15.8% |
| FY21 Q4 | 7.3% |
| FY22 Q4 | 23.3% |
| FY23 Q4 | 23.7% |
| FY24 Q4 | 27.5% |
| FY25 Q4 | 21.6% |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved Invalid Date.
| Period | FCF margin (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY16 Q4 | 173.8% |
| FY17 Q4 | 554.9% |
| FY18 Q4 | 59.0% |
| FY19 Q4 | 49.1% |
| FY20 Q4 | 47.3% |
| FY21 Q4 | 30.6% |
| FY22 Q4 | 37.2% |
| FY23 Q4 | 38.0% |
| FY24 Q4 | 31.0% |
| FY25 Q4 | 24.8% |
Each dollar PDD took in during FY2025, followed through to profit: what it cost to make, what went on research and running the business, and what was left after tax.
| Revenue | $60.1B | |
|---|---|---|
| Other income | $3.7B | 6.1% of revenue |
| Cost of revenue | $26.3B | 43.7% of revenue |
| Gross profit | $33.8B | 56.3% of revenue |
| Research and development | $2.3B | 3.8% of revenue |
| Selling, general and admin | $18.6B | 30.9% of revenue |
| Operating income | $13B | 21.6% of revenue |
| Income tax | $3B | 5.0% of revenue |
| Net income | $13.6B | 22.7% of revenue |
| Fiscal year | 2016 Dec 2016 | 2017 Dec 2017 | 2018 Dec 2018 | 2019 Dec 2019 | 2020 Dec 2020 | 2021 Dec 2021 | 2022 Dec 2022 | 2023 Dec 2023 | 2024 Dec 2024 | 2025 Dec 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income | ||||||||||
| Revenue | 0.1 | 0.3 | 2.0 | 4.4 | 8.6 | 14.6 | 19.4 | 35.0 | 54.7 | 60.1 |
| Gross profit | −0.0 | 0.2 | 1.5 | 3.4 | 5.8 | 9.6 | 14.8 | 22.0 | 33.3 | 33.8 |
| EBITDA | −0.0 | −0.1 | −1.6 | −1.1 | −1.3 | 1.3 | 4.9 | 8.4 | 15.2 | 13.0 |
| Operating income | −0.0 | −0.1 | −1.6 | −1.2 | −1.4 | 1.1 | 4.5 | 8.3 | 15.1 | 13.0 |
| Net income | −0.0 | −0.1 | −1.5 | −1.0 | −1.0 | 1.2 | 4.7 | 8.5 | 15.6 | 13.6 |
| Diluted EPS | — | −$0.17 | −$2.10 | −$0.87 | −$0.88 | $0.84 | — | $5.82 | $10.56 | $9.18 |
| Growth (year on year) | ||||||||||
| Revenue | — | +239.5% | +670.0% | +119.6% | +97.5% | +68.9% | +33.5% | +80.0% | +56.4% | +9.8% |
| EBITDA | — | — | — | — | — | — | +273.4% | +73.0% | +80.4% | −14.0% |
| Operating income | — | — | — | — | — | — | +323.4% | +83.2% | +81.7% | −14.0% |
| Net income | — | — | — | — | — | — | +290.0% | +80.6% | +84.2% | −12.9% |
| Diluted EPS | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | +81.6% | −13.1% |
| Margins | ||||||||||
| Gross margin | −14.5% | 58.6% | 77.9% | 79.0% | 67.6% | 66.2% | 75.9% | 63.0% | 60.9% | 56.3% |
| EBITDA margin | −56.5% | −34.0% | −78.5% | −26.2% | −14.7% | 8.9% | 25.0% | 24.0% | 27.7% | 21.7% |
| Operating margin | −56.7% | −34.2% | −82.3% | −28.3% | −15.8% | 7.3% | 23.3% | 23.7% | 27.5% | 21.6% |
| Net margin | −57.8% | −30.1% | −77.9% | −23.1% | −12.1% | 8.3% | 24.2% | 24.2% | 28.5% | 22.7% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 173.8% | 554.9% | 59.0% | 49.1% | 47.3% | 30.6% | 37.2% | 38.0% | 31.0% | 24.8% |
| Cash flow | ||||||||||
| Cash from operations | 0.1 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 4.1 | 4.5 | 7.2 | 13.3 | 16.9 | 14.9 |
| Capital spending | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Free cash flow | 0.1 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 4.1 | 4.5 | 7.2 | 13.3 | 16.9 | 14.9 |
| Stock-based pay | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.1 |
| Free cash flow after stock pay | 0.1 | 1.4 | 0.1 | 1.8 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 6.1 | 12.3 | 15.6 | 13.8 |
| Balance sheet | ||||||||||
| Cash | 0.2 | 0.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 5.0 | 8.4 | 7.9 | 15.6 |
| Total debt | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | — | 0.0 |
| Net debt (negative = net cash) | −0.2 | −0.5 | −2.1 | −0.7 | −3.2 | 0.8 | −2.7 | −7.6 | −7.9 | −15.6 |
| Diluted shares | 454m | 441m | 742m | 1,157m | 1,192m | 1,428m | 1m | 1,460m | 1,479m | 1,482m |
| Returned to shareholders | ||||||||||
| Buybacks | — | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total returned | — | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Last 12 months unless stated | PDD | CPNG | BABA | M | JD | KSS | Median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $60.1bn | $35.5bn | $144.2bn | $22.8bn | $182.2bn | $15.4bn | $2.8bn |
| Revenue growth, last 12 months | 9.8% | 9.9% | 4.4% | 0.3% | 13.1% | −2.9% | 4.4% |
| Revenue growth, 3-year average | — | 17.1% | 156.1% | −2.4% | 152.8% | −4.6% | 9.1% |
| Revenue growth, latest quarter | — | 3.9% | — | 1.2% | — | −0.9% | 9.1% |
| Gross margin | 56.3% | 28.4% | 39.8% | 40.7% | 16.0% | 41.2% | 44.4% |
| Operating margin | 21.6% | −1.8% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 0.2% | 3.8% | 2.5% |
| Operating margin, 3-year average | −1.8% | 0.4% | 13.6% | 3.3% | 0.1% | 3.8% | 2.8% |
| Net margin | 22.7% | −2.2% | 10.1% | 3.3% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.7% |
| Cash from operations / revenue | 24.8% | 4.0% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 1.5% | 8.8% | 4.0% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 24.8% | 0.3% | 4.0% | 6.2% | 0.9% | 6.7% | 2.1% |
| Free-cash-flow margin, 3-year average | 203.4% | 2.7% | 20.6% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 3.0% |
| Stock pay / revenue | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.7% |
| Change in share count | 0.2% | −0.6% | −0.4% | −2.4% | −3.2% | 2.4% | −0.4% |
| Measure | Company | Peer median | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth Growth | 9.8% | 4.4% | 10 of 23 |
| Change in growth rate Growth | -46.6pp | +0.9pp | 22 of 23 |
| Gross margin Profitability | 56.3% | 44.4% | 7 of 22 |
| Operating margin Profitability | 21.6% | 3.6% | 1 of 22 |
| Net margin Profitability | 22.7% | 1.7% | 2 of 23 |
| Free-cash-flow margin Cash generation | 24.8% | 2.1% | 1 of 23 |
| Stock pay as % of revenue Cash generation | 1.8% | 0.8% | 17 of 22 |
| Change in share count Balance sheet | 0.2% | 0.1% | 14 of 22 |
Rank 1 = best in the group (for spending, debt and dilution, lower ranks first).
| Manager | Value | Shares | Share of 13F value | Shares QoQ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blackrock, Inc. | $2.4B | 32.0M | 7.4% | ▼ 18.9% |
| Baillie Gifford & Co | $2B | 26.6M | 6.2% | ▼ 6.2% |
| H&H International Investment, LLC | $1.9B | 25.0M | 5.8% | ▲ 26.7% |
| Vanguard Capital Management LLC | $1.9B | 24.6M | 5.7% | ▲ 2.2% |
| Invesco Ltd. | $1.7B | 22.2M | 5.1% | ▲ 8.4% |
| Goldman Sachs Group Inc | $1.1B | 14.0M | 3.2% | ▲ 44.3% |
| Hsg Holding Ltd | $866M | 11.3M | 2.6% | 0.0% |
| Himalaya Capital Management LLC | $821M | 10.8M | 2.5% | ▲ 133.5% |
| State Street Corp | $786M | 10.3M | 2.4% | ▼ 14.4% |
| Netease, Inc. | $730M | 9.6M | 2.2% | ▲ 7.9% |
| First Beijing Investment Ltd | $715M | 9.4M | 2.2% | ▲ 15.1% |
| Norges Bank | $712M | 9.3M | 2.2% | — |
From Form 13F filings with the SEC ( quarterly data sets), as reported by each manager for June 30, 2026 and filed up to 45 days later. 13F reports cover long US-listed positions of managers above $100M only, so this is not PDD Holdings Inc.'s complete shareholder register. Values are as reported by the filers ; 2 inconsistently scaled filing rows were excluded.
| Insider | Date | Trade | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kam Anthony Ping Leung Director | September 3, 2026 | Sell | 1,705 | $82.20 | $140,151 |
| Kam Anthony Ping Leung Director | March 30, 2026 | Sell | 1,533 | $99.43 | $152,426 |
| Rietjens Ivonne Mcm Director | March 30, 2026 | Sell | 560 | $99.59 | $55,770 |
From insiders' Form 4 filings with the SEC. Excludes awards, option exercises and shares withheld for tax. "Pre-set plan" means the filing marks the trade as made under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. See every insider trade since five years ago, on a price chart.
No trades in PDD Holdings Inc. disclosed in the last 12 months; 6 earlier trades on record.
| Data | Last updated | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Share price | Exchange closing prices | |
| News and updates | Company releases and SEC 8-K filings | |
| Analyst estimates | Aggregated analyst estimates | |
| Valuation and scores | Our models, from the filed figures |
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