Pennymac Financial Services, Inc. is a US-listed company in the commercial & residential mortgage finance industry. Its financial year ends in December.
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~$110
Valuation models combined (4)
Base case. Range ~$110–$120. Weighted average of 4 models (forward price-to-earnings vs peers, residual income, justified price-to-book, dividend discount (two-stage)), the forward price-to-earnings vs peers counting double.
Undervalued
The price is below our entire value range; our base value is 71% above it.
Price used: $65.32, November 2, 2026
Pennymac Financial Services, Inc. valuation: adjust assumptions and compare models →
What company insiders, investment funds and members of Congress have been doing with the stock, from their own filings.
Revenue for the twelve months to June 2026 was $36m, up 114.0% on a year earlier, against a decline of 24.3% a quarter earlier.
Source: 10-Q filed August 4, 2026 on SEC EDGAR · Financials · Valuation
Written from the company's filings and our models when each quarter's report arrives. Figures in older notes are as published at the time. Not investment advice.
Pennymac Financial Services, Inc.'s trailing-twelve-month revenue grew 25.9% year on year, with a free-cash-flow margin of -81.4%. Where it stands out: stock pay as % of revenue of 1.1% ranks 2 of 11 commercial & residential mortgage finance companies we cover.
Current signal Results well short of expectations: Reported earnings per share missed the analysts' consensus estimate by 15% in the quarter to 2026-09-30.
Assembled from SEC-filed figures — the full workings are on this page and in our methodology. Observations, not recommendations.
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Third-party market data · may be delayed
Company announcements, filed results and changes that matter to shareholders.
We value Pennymac Financial Services, Inc. as an asset manager, broker or exchange, with every model that fits that kind of business. Cost of equity 8.6%: the 10-year Treasury yield (4.9%) plus a beta of 0.82 times a 4.5% equity risk premium.
| Model | Value per share | In the combined value? |
|---|---|---|
| Forward price-to-earnings vs peers Next year's consensus earnings per share times peers' typical (harmonic-mean) forward price-to-earnings. Uses analysts' consensus estimates (third-party data), not our forecasts. | ~$110 ~$84–$170 | Primary model, counts double |
| Residual income Book value plus the present value of returns above the cost of equity, fading over ten years. | ~$110 ~$73–$160 | Included |
| Justified price-to-book Book value times (return on equity - growth) / (cost of equity - growth): steady-state returns. | ~$110 ~$96–$140 | Included |
| Price-to-book vs peers Book value per share times peers' typical (harmonic-mean) price-to-book. | ~$4.2 ~$68–$340 | Left out: out of range vs price (0.06x) |
| Dividend discount (two-stage) Dividends for five years at the growth the business can fund, then a steady payout and growth. | ~$120 ~$99–$150 | Included |
| Combined value Weighted average of the models that apply: the primary model (forward price-to-earnings vs peers) counts double. Models more than 5x or less than 0.2x the share price, or more than 3x away from the other models' median, are left out. | ~$110 ~$110–$120 | 4 models |
Different models fail in different ways, so where several apply we average them rather than trust one. Peer-based models compare Pennymac Financial Services, Inc. with asset managers, brokers and exchanges in our coverage, using third-party market data. Model values are estimates under stated assumptions, updated as new filings arrive; not price targets or investment advice. How each model works.
Strong moat
How hard Pennymac Financial Services's competitive advantage looks for rivals to wear away, judged from 9 years of its own filings: returns on capital, pricing power, profit durability, cash conversion and discipline.
Net income has been a median 1.6% of total assets over 9 years.
Net margin has been a median 18.0%; its worst year was 7.3%.
The diluted share count fell 27.0% over five years; stock-based pay has been a median 1.6% of revenue.
AI disruption exposure: Medium. In this industry, AI could change how the product is made or sold, without replacing the core asset. The score above includes a 5-point deduction for that exposure (85 before it).
Next results: January 28, 2027, after the close. Analysts expect revenue of $516m and EPS of $1.65 (range $1.14 to $1.88) for the quarter.
| Fiscal year | EPS | Growth | Revenue | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | $5.96 | −52% | $2.1bn | +3% |
| Next | $10.26 | +72% | $2.3bn | +9% |
Next year's EPS estimate has moved −10.7% in 90 days, across 4 analysts.
The consensus EPS forecast for the current fiscal year is −20.8% on 90 days ago. In the last 30 days, 0 analysts raised Pennymac Financial Services, Inc.'s forecast and 2 cut it.
Average of analysts' published estimates (third-party data).
| Period | Current fiscal year | Next fiscal year |
|---|---|---|
| 90 days ago | $7.52 | $11.48 |
| 60 days ago | $7.15 | $11.14 |
| 30 days ago | $7.06 | $10.76 |
| 7 days ago | $6.48 | $10.30 |
| Now | $5.96 | $10.26 |
| Quarter to | Estimate | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sept 2026 | $1.23 | $1.05 | −14.9% |
| Jun 2026 | $2.15 | $1.39 | −35.2% |
| Mar 2026 | $2.14 | $2.19 | +2.3% |
| Dec 2025 | $3.23 | $1.96 | −39.3% |
Adjusted EPS as companies report it, against the average analyst estimate.
Last 12 months −47.4%
| Part | Then | Now | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (last 12 months) | $1.8bn | $2.2bn | +25.9% |
| Net margin | 22.0% | 17.7% | −19.4% |
| P/E multiple | 17.2x | 9.0x | −47.9% |
| Share count | 54m | 54m | −0.5% |
Biggest factor: p/e multiple.
Last 3 years −6.8%
| Part | Then | Now | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (last 12 months) | $1.5bn | $2.2bn | +52.0% |
| Net margin | 18.0% | 17.7% | −1.2% |
| P/E multiple | 14.3x | 9.0x | −37.4% |
| Share count | 53m | 54m | −0.8% |
Biggest factor: p/e multiple.
| Calendar year | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 to date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return | ||||||
| PFSI | +8% | −18% | +58% | +17% | +31% | −50% |
| Industry peers (median) | +5% | −11% | +11% | +6% | +6% | +2% |
| S&P 500 | +29% | −18% | +26% | +25% | +18% | +11% |
| Months that ended higher | ||||||
| PFSI | 67% | 33% | 58% | 58% | 50% | 36% |
| S&P 500 | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 75% | 46% |
| Largest fall from a high during the year | ||||||
| PFSI | −16% | −43% | −23% | −15% | −22% | −63% |
| S&P 500 | −5% | −25% | −10% | −8% | −19% | −9% |
Worst fall since November 3, 2015: 63% from January 16, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Getting back needed a 173% gain, and the shares have not yet recovered.
| Results released | Next day | S&P 500 next day | 5 days | 21 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 29, 2026 | −0.8% | −2.1% | — | — |
| July 29, 2026 | −11.5% | +0.1% | −11.4% | −13.8% |
| May 5, 2026 | −3.1% | +2.2% | −1.4% | −9.0% |
| January 29, 2026 | −32.0% | −0.5% | −33.7% | −38.3% |
| October 21, 2025 | +6.7% | −0.5% | +7.2% | +2.8% |
| July 22, 2025 | −5.3% | +0.9% | −6.8% | +3.6% |
| April 22, 2025 | −0.5% | +4.2% | +1.9% | +2.4% |
| January 30, 2025 | −6.6% | 0.0% | −6.2% | −7.3% |
| October 22, 2024 | −4.7% | −1.0% | −2.4% | −1.8% |
| July 23, 2024 | −2.7% | −2.4% | −0.8% | +0.6% |
| April 24, 2024 | −7.1% | −0.4% | −7.1% | −2.7% |
| February 1, 2024 | +6.9% | +2.4% | +3.5% | −2.6% |
How Pennymac Financial Services, Inc.’s listed options are priced, and three ways to use them that follow from our valuation. Quotes are delayed, read November 2, 2026. Check the live chain at your broker before trading.
Not offered: fundamentals grade C+ (needs B+ or better).
We suggest selling a put only on well-rated companies, at a strike where the price you would pay if assigned (strike less premium) is at or below our fair value.
Not offered: no liquid call at or above our price target — the model says the upside is worth more than any listed strike.
For holders: sell a call at a strike at or above our fair value, so the shares are only sold at a price the model calls full value.
Not offered: the shares trade below our fair value: a collar caps upside the model expects.
For holders of a stock trading at or above our fair value: buy a put for a floor and sell a call to pay for it.
General research, not personal advice. Options can lose you more than you expect and are not suitable for everyone: put sellers can be made to buy shares that keep falling, call sellers give up gains above the strike, and results or news can move prices sharply. Chances shown are approximations from each option’s delta. Spreads, fees and early assignment are not modelled.
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved October 26, 2026.
| Period | Revenue (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY23 Q3 | $1.4B |
| FY23 Q4 | $1.4B |
| FY24 Q1 | $1.4B |
| FY24 Q2 | $1.5B |
| FY24 Q3 | $1.5B |
| FY24 Q4 | $1.6B |
| FY25 Q1 | $1.7B |
| FY25 Q2 | $1.8B |
| FY25 Q3 | $2B |
| FY25 Q4 | $2B |
| FY26 Q1 | $2.2B |
| FY26 Q2 | $2.2B |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved October 26, 2026.
| Period | Revenue growth, TTM YoY |
|---|---|
| FY23 Q3 | -41.0% |
| FY23 Q4 | -29.4% |
| FY24 Q1 | -13.9% |
| FY24 Q2 | 1.2% |
| FY24 Q3 | 7.6% |
| FY24 Q4 | 13.7% |
| FY25 Q1 | 22.4% |
| FY25 Q2 | 19.2% |
| FY25 Q3 | 33.2% |
| FY25 Q4 | 28.4% |
| FY26 Q1 | 25.7% |
| FY26 Q2 | 25.9% |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved October 26, 2026.
| Period | FCF margin (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY23 Q3 | -110.5% |
| FY23 Q4 | -113.0% |
| FY24 Q1 | 55.7% |
| FY24 Q2 | -172.2% |
| FY24 Q3 | -131.7% |
| FY24 Q4 | -284.6% |
| FY25 Q1 | -149.5% |
| FY25 Q2 | -91.6% |
| FY25 Q3 | -96.8% |
| FY25 Q4 | -81.3% |
| FY26 Q1 | -188.5% |
| FY26 Q2 | -81.4% |
| Fiscal year | 2016 Dec 2016 | 2017 Dec 2017 | 2018 Dec 2018 | 2019 Dec 2019 | 2020 Dec 2020 | 2021 Dec 2021 | 2022 Dec 2022 | 2023 Dec 2023 | 2024 Dec 2024 | 2025 Dec 2025 | LTM Jun 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income | |||||||||||
| Revenue | 932 | 955 | 985 | 1,477 | 3,706 | 3,167 | 1,986 | 1,402 | 1,594 | 2,047 | 2,213 |
| Net income | 66 | 101 | 88 | 393 | 1,647 | 1,003 | 476 | 145 | 311 | 501 | 392 |
| Diluted EPS | $8.82 | $4.03 | $2.59 | $4.89 | $20.92 | $14.87 | $8.50 | $2.74 | $5.84 | $9.30 | $7.29 |
| Growth (year on year) | |||||||||||
| Revenue | — | +2.5% | +3.1% | +50.0% | +150.8% | −14.5% | −37.3% | −29.4% | +13.7% | +28.4% | +25.9% |
| Net income | — | +52.5% | −13.0% | +348.1% | +319.1% | −39.1% | −52.6% | −69.6% | +115.3% | +60.9% | +1.5% |
| Diluted EPS | — | −54.3% | −35.7% | +88.8% | +327.8% | −28.9% | −42.8% | −67.8% | +113.1% | +59.2% | +1.0% |
| Margins | |||||||||||
| Net margin | 7.1% | 10.5% | 8.9% | 26.6% | 44.4% | 31.7% | 23.9% | 10.3% | 19.5% | 24.5% | 17.7% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | −103.0% | −93.2% | 56.8% | −152.4% | −167.6% | 80.7% | 303.5% | −113.0% | −284.6% | −81.3% | −81.4% |
| Cash flow | |||||||||||
| Cash from operations | −938 | −883 | 572 | −2,245 | −6,199 | 2,563 | 6,033 | −1,582 | −4,533 | −1,652 | −1,786 |
| Capital spending | 22 | 7 | 13 | 6 | 11 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 16 |
| Free cash flow | −960 | −890 | 559 | −2,251 | −6,210 | 2,555 | 6,026 | −1,584 | −4,535 | −1,664 | −1,801 |
| Stock-based pay | 16 | 21 | 25 | 25 | 45 | 38 | 43 | 28 | 21 | 36 | 25 |
| Free cash flow after stock pay | −976 | −911 | 534 | −2,276 | −6,255 | 2,517 | 5,984 | −1,611 | −4,556 | −1,700 | −1,826 |
| Balance sheet | |||||||||||
| Cash | 100 | 38 | 156 | 189 | 533 | 340 | 1,329 | 938 | 238 | 302 | 214 |
| Total debt | 0 | 4,058 | 3,981 | 6,132 | — | 3,103 | 3,750 | 4,430 | 5,255 | 6,230 | 6,330 |
| Net debt (negative = net cash) | −100 | 4,020 | 3,825 | 5,944 | −533 | 2,763 | 2,421 | 3,492 | 5,017 | 5,928 | 6,116 |
| Diluted shares | 26m | 25m | 35m | 80m | 79m | 67m | 56m | 53m | 53m | 54m | 54m |
| Returned to shareholders | |||||||||||
| Dividends | — | — | 10 | 10 | 31 | 53 | 55 | 41 | 52 | 63 | 63 |
| Buybacks | — | 9 | 5 | 1 | 337 | 958 | 406 | 71 | — | 5 | — |
| Total returned | — | 9 | 15 | 11 | 368 | 1,011 | 461 | 113 | 52 | 67 | 63 |
| Quarter | 2024 Q3 Sept 2024 | 2024 Q4 Dec 2024 | 2025 Q1 Mar 2025 | 2025 Q2 Jun 2025 | 2025 Q3 Sept 2025 | 2025 Q4 Dec 2025 | 2026 Q1 Mar 2026 | 2026 Q2 Jun 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income | ||||||||
| Revenue | 412 | 470 | 431 | 445 | 633 | 538 | 545 | 497 |
| Net income | 69 | 104 | 76 | 136 | 182 | 107 | 82 | 22 |
| Diluted EPS | $1.30 | $1.96 | $1.42 | $2.54 | $3.37 | $1.96 | $1.53 | $0.41 |
| Growth (year on year) | ||||||||
| Revenue | +2.9% | +29.9% | +41.0% | +9.5% | +53.7% | +14.4% | +26.5% | +11.7% |
| Net income | −25.3% | — | +94.1% | +38.9% | +161.7% | +2.2% | +7.9% | −84.1% |
| Diluted EPS | −26.6% | — | +91.9% | +37.3% | +159.2% | 0.0% | +7.7% | −83.9% |
| Margins | ||||||||
| Net margin | 16.8% | 22.2% | 17.7% | 30.7% | 28.7% | 19.9% | 15.1% | 4.4% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | −95.6% | −457.1% | 247.3% | −29.8% | −110.5% | −352.7% | −246.7% | 430.6% |
| Cash flow | ||||||||
| Cash from operations | −394 | −2,149 | 1,066 | −131 | −697 | −1,889 | −1,342 | 2,143 |
| Capital spending | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 3 |
| Free cash flow | −394 | −2,149 | 1,066 | −133 | −699 | −1,897 | −1,344 | 2,140 |
| Stock-based pay | 19 | −0 | 11 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 2 | 4 |
| Free cash flow after stock pay | −413 | −2,149 | 1,055 | −140 | −709 | −1,905 | −1,347 | 2,135 |
| Last 12 months unless stated | PFSI | RDN | UWMC | WD | LDI | ACT | Median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $2.2bn | $1.6bn | $3.6bn | $1.3bn | $1.3bn | $1.3bn | $1.2bn |
| Revenue growth, last 12 months | 25.9% | 37.1% | 26.1% | 8.0% | 11.4% | 2.5% | 11.0% |
| Revenue growth, 3-year average | 15.0% | 10.8% | 27.3% | 5.0% | 10.8% | 4.1% | 10.8% |
| Revenue growth, latest quarter | 11.7% | 92.6% | 17.0% | −3.9% | 19.4% | 4.1% | 11.7% |
| Operating margin | — | 47.5% | — | 20.1% | — | — | 3.6% |
| Operating margin, 3-year average | — | −12.9% | — | 27.5% | — | — | 27.5% |
| Net margin | 17.7% | 32.6% | −1.0% | 3.0% | −5.5% | 54.5% | 15.0% |
| Cash from operations / revenue | −80.7% | 84.7% | −135.9% | −9.3% | −20.0% | 57.5% | 20.0% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | −81.4% | 84.5% | −137.6% | −10.2% | −22.5% | — | 10.1% |
| Free-cash-flow margin, 3-year average | −115.1% | 1.3% | −119.6% | 12.3% | −41.4% | — | 1.3% |
| Stock pay / revenue | 1.1% | — | 1.6% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.9% |
| Change in share count | 0.5% | −6.8% | — | 0.3% | 47.7% | −6.3% | −0.1% |
| Measure | Company | Peer median | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth Growth | 25.9% | 11.4% | 4 of 14 |
| Change in growth rate Growth | +0.2pp | +0.2pp | 7 of 14 |
| Net margin Profitability | 17.7% | 17.7% | 7 of 14 |
| Stock pay as % of revenue Cash generation | 1.1% | 1.9% | 2 of 11 |
| Change in share count Balance sheet | 0.5% | 0.1% | 8 of 10 |
Rank 1 = best in the group (for spending, debt and dilution, lower ranks first).
| Manager | Value | Shares | Share of 13F value | Shares QoQ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mfn Partners Management, LP | $395M | 4.5M | 13.5% | 0.0% |
| T. Rowe Price Investment Management, Inc. | $342M | 3.9M | 11.7% | ▲ 8.9% |
| Blackrock, Inc. | $203M | 2.3M | 6.9% | ▲ 5.6% |
| Dimensional Fund Advisors LP | $186M | 2.1M | 6.3% | ▲ 11.2% |
| Donald Smith & Co., Inc. | $164M | 1.9M | 5.6% | ▲ 37.2% |
| Rubric Capital Management LP | $148M | 1.7M | 5.1% | ▲ 3006.3% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC | $145M | 1.7M | 4.9% | ▲ 0.1% |
| Vanguard Capital Management LLC | $113M | 1.3M | 3.8% | ▲ 0.1% |
| Invesco Ltd. | $87.7M | 1.0M | 3.0% | ▲ 18.6% |
| State Street Corp | $80.3M | 922K | 2.7% | ▲ 7.6% |
| Goldman Sachs Group Inc | $71.4M | 820K | 2.4% | ▲ 22.4% |
| FMR LLC | $70.3M | 808K | 2.4% | ▲ 7.8% |
From Form 13F filings with the SEC ( quarterly data sets), as reported by each manager for June 30, 2026 and filed up to 45 days later. 13F reports cover long US-listed positions of managers above $100M only, so this is not Pennymac Financial Services, Inc.'s complete shareholder register. Values are as reported by the filers .
| Insider | Date | Trade | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hendry Gregory L MD, Chief Accounting Officer | July 1, 2026 | Sell pre-set plan | 2,177 | $86.89 | $189,160 |
| Hendry Gregory L MD, Chief Accounting Officer | June 22, 2026 | Sell pre-set plan | 2,943 | $81.71 | $240,473 |
| Perotti Daniel Stanley Chief Financial Officer | May 15, 2026 | Sell pre-set plan | 2,925 | $87.50 | $255,938 |
| Spector David Chairman & CEO | May 12, 2026 | Sell pre-set plan | 2,772 | $86.88 | $240,831 |
| Spector David Chairman & CEO | May 12, 2026 | Sell pre-set plan | 3,144 | $88.02 | $276,735 |
| Spector David Chairman & CEO | May 12, 2026 | Sell pre-set plan | 4,084 | $88.71 | $362,292 |
| Spector David Chairman & CEO | April 14, 2026 | Sell pre-set plan | 9,583 | $92.80 | $889,302 |
| Spector David Chairman & CEO | April 14, 2026 | Sell pre-set plan | 417 | $93.47 | $38,977 |
| Spector David Chairman & CEO | March 6, 2026 | Sell pre-set plan | 1,020 | $86.93 | $88,669 |
| Spector David Chairman & CEO | March 6, 2026 | Sell pre-set plan | 10,210 | $86.42 | $882,348 |
| Spector David Chairman & CEO | March 6, 2026 | Sell pre-set plan | 917 | $85.26 | $78,183 |
| Spector David Chairman & CEO | March 6, 2026 | Sell pre-set plan | 1,309 | $86.93 | $113,791 |
From insiders' Form 4 filings with the SEC. Excludes awards, option exercises and shares withheld for tax. "Pre-set plan" means the filing marks the trade as made under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. See every insider trade since five years ago, on a price chart.
Next expected around January 28, 2027 estimated from the company's past filing pattern, not announced
| Data | Last updated | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Share price | Exchange closing prices | |
| Financial statements | SEC 10-K and 10-Q filings | |
| News and updates | Company releases and SEC 8-K filings | |
| Analyst estimates | Aggregated analyst estimates | |
| Valuation and scores | Our models, from the filed figures |
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