undamentalytics Newsletter
Sign in

Permian Resources Corp: what the price is pricing in

The price implies cash-flow growth of -13.7% a year; our model expects 13.0%. That gap is wide enough for a long position this quarter. Switch lens below to see the same question asked of earnings, growth, sales and book value.

What growth in cash flow is the price paying for?

The price implies cash-flow growth of -13.7% a year; our model expects 13.0%.

Market more pessimistic than our model: long this quarter

What the price implies What our model expects

Quarters with a position2525 long, 0 short, since June 30, 2019
Beat the S&P 50015 of 2560.0% of quarters held
Strategy against the index+3665.4%cumulative; worst fall -42.6%
$10,000 became$1,229,471S&P 500 bought and held: $35,881

Over time

The growth in owner earnings (free cash flow after stock-based pay) that would justify the share price in our discounted-cash-flow model, against the growth the model itself assumes from the company's record.

-25%-14%-3%9%20% 2019202120232025 $0.2$7.6$15.0$22.4 Long from 2019-09-30Long from 2020-03-31Long from 2020-06-30Long from 2020-09-30Long from 2020-12-31Long from 2021-03-31Long from 2021-12-31Long from 2022-03-31Long from 2022-06-30Long from 2022-09-30Long from 2022-12-31Long from 2023-03-31Long from 2023-06-30Long from 2023-09-30Long from 2023-12-31Long from 2024-03-31Long from 2024-06-30Long from 2024-09-30Long from 2024-12-31Long from 2025-03-31Long from 2025-06-30Long from 2025-09-30Long from 2025-12-31Long from 2026-03-31Long from 2026-06-30Long from 2026-09-30
Growth our model assumes Growth the price implies Long quarter Short quarter. Lower panel: the share price at each quarter end, adjusted for later share splits and spin-offs (the table below gives the price as traded).

$10,000 trading the gap vs the S&P 500

$0$500k$1.00m 20192020202120222023202420252026 $1.23m$35.9k
StrategyS&P 500, buy and hold Hypothetical, before costs. The strategy holds the S&P 500 and only changes on a signal: it switches into PR in long quarters and adds a short of PR in short quarters. The gap between the lines is what the signal added or lost.

Skill or luck?

In plain English: Across 25 quarters with a position, this lens beat the S&P 500 in 15, by +26.2% a quarter on average. That stands out clearly from chance. One company is a small sample: the results across all companies are the better guide.

PositionsQuartersBeat the S&P 500Average vs S&P 500, a quarterTypical (median), a quarterA yearConfidence (t)Evidence
Longs 25 60.0% +26.2% +4.7% +78.7% 2.09 Strong evidence
Shorts 0 — — — — — —
All positions 25 60.0% +26.2% +4.7% +78.7% 2.09 Strong evidence

Each position is measured against the S&P 500 over the same quarter: a long earns the stock's return minus the index's, a short the index's minus the stock's. "A year" compounds the per-quarter results. Evidence: strong at a t-statistic of 2 or more, some from 1.5; "worse" when the result is that far below zero; one company's history is a small sample, so read these alongside the results across all companies.

Every quarter (29)
FromPrice paidGrowth the price impliesGrowth our model assumesPositionPRS&P 500
September 30, 2026 (open) $21.12 -13.7% 13.0% Long +16.3% −0.8%
June 30, 2026 $18.41 -13.3% 9.8% Long +15.5% +2.4%
March 31, 2026 $21.32 -12.7% 11.7% Long −12.9% +15.1%
December 31, 2025 $14.03 -17.9% 13.0% Long +53.2% −4.4%
September 30, 2025 $12.80 -18.4% 13.0% Long +10.8% +2.7%
June 30, 2025 $13.62 -18.8% 13.0% Long −4.9% +8.1%
March 31, 2025 $13.85 -17.4% 13.0% Long −0.7% +10.8%
December 31, 2024 $14.38 -15.9% 13.0% Long −2.6% −4.3%
September 30, 2024 $13.61 -17.7% 13.0% Long +6.7% +2.5%
June 30, 2024 $16.15 -12.7% 13.0% Long −14.5% +5.8%
March 31, 2024 $17.66 -10.5% 13.0% Long −7.4% +4.4%
December 31, 2023 $13.60 -16.5% 13.0% Long +31.1% +10.4%
September 30, 2023 $13.96 -14.3% 13.0% Long −1.7% +11.6%
June 30, 2023 $10.96 -14.7% 13.0% Long +28.4% −3.2%
March 31, 2023 $10.50 -12.7% 13.0% Long +5.5% +8.7%
December 31, 2022 $9.40 -8.6% 13.0% Long +12.2% +7.5%
September 30, 2022 $6.80 -22.3% 13.0% Long +38.9% +7.6%
June 30, 2022 $5.98 -19.4% 13.0% Long +13.7% −4.9%
March 31, 2022 $8.07 -10.7% 13.0% Long −25.9% −16.1%
December 31, 2021 $5.98 -11.1% 9.5% Long +35.0% −4.6%
September 30, 2021 $6.70 -8.7% -2.8% No position −10.8% +11.1%
June 30, 2021 $6.78 -6.2% 0.5% No position −1.2% +0.6%
March 31, 2021 $4.20 -10.0% 0.5% Long +61.4% +8.4%
December 31, 2020 $1.50 -20.4% 5.1% Long +180.0% +6.3%
September 30, 2020 $0.60 -25.2% 13.0% Long +149.2% +12.1%
June 30, 2020 $0.89 -22.0% 13.0% Long −32.4% +9.0%
March 31, 2020 $0.26 -24.0% 13.0% Long +238.4% +20.2%
September 30, 2019 $4.51 1.8% 20.0% Long +2.3% +9.0%
June 30, 2019 $7.59 19.5% 13.0% No position −40.5% +1.8%

Price paid: the closing price that day as traded, before any later share split.

How the test works

At each quarter end since March 2010 we rebuild the models from Permian Resources Corp's quarters ending at least 90 days earlier (and no more than 200 days before that), using the figures as later filed, including any restatement, and value them at that day's close, adjusted for later share splits and spin-offs so that price and share count are on the same basis. A wide enough gap is a long or a short for one quarter (growth 10 points; margin and return on equity 5 points; a PEG under 0.75 or over 3), measured on total return against the S&P 500. The rules were set before the test. No trading or borrowing costs; today's list of companies. Not investment advice. All companies and the results across them.

Compare with peers

Head to head: PR vs SMCHRD vs PRAR vs PR

More: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production stocks compared, Energy sector, rankings of US companies

Figures from Permian Resources Corp's SEC filings (10-K and 10-Q), retrieved October 20, 2026. How we read and check them: methodology and data sources. Not investment advice. Back to Permian Resources Corp.