Space Exploration Technologies Corp is a US-listed company in the aerospace & defense industry. Its financial year ends in December.
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~$94
Forward price-to-earnings vs peers
Base case. Range ~$77–$130. Next year's consensus earnings per share times peers' typical (harmonic-mean) forward price-to-earnings.
No Buy/Hold/Sell rating is issued: limited reported history: available models are shown without a Buy/Hold/Sell rating.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp valuation: adjust assumptions and compare models →
What company insiders, investment funds and members of Congress have been doing with the stock, from their own filings.
Model value +97.7%
Revenue for the twelve months to September 2026 was $32.0bn. Free-cash-flow margin fell to -122.3% from -38.4% a year earlier. Operating margin narrowed to -2.1% from 3.3%. The diluted share count is down 70.6% on a year earlier, which lifts each remaining share. Our model value rises from $37.06 to $73.27 a share, against a share price of $137.
Source: 10-Q filed October 22, 2026 on SEC EDGAR · Financials · Valuation
Revenue for the twelve months to June 2026 reached $32.0bn. Despite that top line, the free-cash-flow margin deteriorated to -122.3% from -38.4% a year earlier, and operating margin slipped to -2.1% from 3.3%. One offsetting factor stands out: the diluted share count is down 70.6% on a year earlier, which lifts the claim attached to each remaining share. Taken together, our model value falls from $48.74 to $37.06 a share. That revised figure sits well below the current share price of $145.
Revenue for the twelve months to June 2026 was $23.0bn. Free-cash-flow margin fell to -140.4% from 1.0% a year earlier. Operating margin widened to -16.2% from -33.7%. The diluted share count is down 70.6% on a year earlier, which lifts each remaining share. It passes 6 of our 6 financial-health checks. Our valuation models combined value is $49.93 a share, against a share price of $148.
Written from the company's filings and our models when each quarter's report arrives. Figures in older notes are as published at the time. Not investment advice.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp's trailing-twelve-month revenue grew 33.2% year on year, with a free-cash-flow margin of -122.3%.
Current signal Results well ahead of expectations: Reported earnings per share beat the analysts' consensus estimate by 112% in the quarter to 2026-09-30, the 2nd beat in the last four quarters.
Assembled from SEC-filed figures — the full workings are on this page and in our methodology. Observations, not recommendations.
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Company announcements, filed results and changes that matter to shareholders.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp said it reached a binding commitment for a $40 billion master finance lease with an Apollo Global Management entity. The deal covers NVIDIA Vera Rubin chips for terrestrial compute and is expected to close before the end of 2026. Lease schedules are set to begin in the first half of 2027 upon equipment delivery.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp's new 10-Q puts twelve-month revenue at $32.04 billion, up 33.2% on the year before.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp released a document titled 'SpaceX Reports Third Quarter 2026 Results'. The provided text consists of raw PDF binary data and contains no readable financial figures or statements. Consequently, no specific earnings, dates, or operational details could be extracted to inform shareholders.
We value Space Exploration Technologies Corp as an operating company, with every model that fits that kind of business. Cost of equity 10.2%: the 10-year Treasury yield (4.9%) plus a beta of 1.16 times a 4.5% equity risk premium.
| Model | Value per share | In the combined value? |
|---|---|---|
| Growth cash-flow model Revenue for this year and next from analysts' consensus, then growth fading to 2.5%; the operating margin moving to profitable peers'; investment needed per dollar of growth from peers; reduced by a failure probability. For young or fast-growing companies. The starting margin is normalized to between -100% and 60%; net margin is a proxy when operating income is not tagged. Uses analysts' consensus estimates (third-party data), not our forecasts. | ~$20 ~$11–$28 | Left out: out of range vs price (0.14x) |
| Forward price-to-earnings vs peers Next year's consensus earnings per share times peers' typical (harmonic-mean) forward price-to-earnings. Uses analysts' consensus estimates (third-party data), not our forecasts. | ~$94 ~$77–$130 | Included |
| Residual income Book value plus the present value of returns above the cost of equity, fading over ten years. | ~$0.8 ~$0.3–$1.6 | Left out: out of range vs price (0.01x) |
| Justified price-to-book Book value times (return on equity - growth) / (cost of equity - growth): steady-state returns. | — | Does not apply: return on equity is not positive |
| Forward price-to-sales vs peers Next year's consensus sales per share times peers' typical forward price-to-sales; only when earnings are negative. Uses analysts' consensus estimates (third-party data), not our forecasts. | ~$0.0 ~$25–$73 | Left out: out of range vs price (0.00x) |
| Revenue-to-maturity model Revenue grown to maturity with the cash margin moving to the industry's; for companies not yet profitable. | — | Does not apply: revenue and margins don't support a positive value |
| Combined value Weighted average of the models that apply: the primary model (growth cash-flow model) counts double. Models more than 5x or less than 0.2x the share price, or more than 3x away from the other models' median, are left out. | ~$94 ~$77–$130 | 1 model |
Different models fail in different ways, so where several apply we average them rather than trust one. Peer-based models compare Space Exploration Technologies Corp with Aerospace & Defense in our coverage, using third-party market data. Model values are estimates under stated assumptions, updated as new filings arrive; not price targets or investment advice. How each model works.
| At fiscal year end | Now |
|---|---|
| Share price | $136.37 |
| Market value | $858.5bn |
| + Net debt (− = net cash) | −$12.4bn |
| Enterprise value | $846.1bn |
| Multiples | |
| Price / sales | 26.8x |
| Price / earnings | — |
| Price / free cash flow | — |
| EV / EBITDA | — |
Not assessed: fewer than five years of comparable figures in the filings. AI disruption exposure for this industry: Low.
| Fiscal year | EPS | Growth | Revenue | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | $0.26 | +103% | $48.9bn | — |
| Next | $3.97 | +1454% | $180.4bn | +269% |
Next year's EPS estimate has moved +543.0% in 90 days, across 33 analysts.
The consensus EPS forecast for the current fiscal year is −150.9% on 90 days ago. In the last 30 days, 2 analysts raised Space Exploration Technologies Corp's forecast and 1 cut it.
Average of analysts' published estimates (third-party data).
| Period | Current fiscal year | Next fiscal year |
|---|---|---|
| 90 days ago | −$0.50 | $0.62 |
| 60 days ago | $0.07 | $1.78 |
| 30 days ago | $0.07 | $1.86 |
| 7 days ago | $0.27 | $2.55 |
| Now | $0.26 | $3.97 |
| Quarter to | Estimate | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sept 2026 | $0.16 | $0.35 | +112.5% |
| Jun 2026 | −$0.29 | −$0.09 | +68.9% |
Adjusted EPS as companies report it, against the average analyst estimate.
| Results released | Next day | S&P 500 next day | 5 days | 21 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 20, 2026 | +7.7% | +0.9% | +0.4% | — |
| August 4, 2026 | −5.5% | +1.6% | +16.4% | +22.9% |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved October 23, 2026.
| Period | Revenue (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY23 Q4 | $10.4B |
| FY24 Q4 | $14B |
| FY25 Q4 | $18.7B |
| FY26 Q1 | $19.3B |
| FY26 Q2 | $23B |
| FY26 Q3 | $32B |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved October 23, 2026.
| Period | Operating margin (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY23 Q4 | -33.7% |
| FY24 Q4 | 3.3% |
| FY25 Q4 | -13.9% |
| FY26 Q1 | -23.6% |
| FY26 Q2 | -16.2% |
| FY26 Q3 | -2.1% |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved October 23, 2026.
| Period | FCF margin (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY23 Q4 | 1.0% |
| FY24 Q4 | -38.4% |
| FY25 Q4 | -74.7% |
| FY26 Q1 | -101.5% |
| FY26 Q2 | -140.4% |
| FY26 Q3 | -122.3% |
| Fiscal year | 2023 Dec 2023 | 2024 Dec 2024 | 2025 Dec 2025 | LTM Sept 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income | ||||
| Revenue | 10.4 | 14.0 | 18.7 | 32.0 |
| Operating income | −3.5 | 0.5 | −2.6 | −0.7 |
| Net income | −4.6 | 0.8 | −4.9 | −2.8 |
| Diluted EPS | −$1.68 | $0.00 | −$1.69 | −$0.44 |
| Growth (year on year) | ||||
| Revenue | — | +34.9% | +33.2% | — |
| Operating income | — | — | −655.6% | — |
| Net income | — | — | −724.1% | — |
| Margins | ||||
| Operating margin | −33.7% | 3.3% | −13.9% | −2.1% |
| Net margin | −44.6% | 5.6% | −26.4% | −8.6% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 1.0% | −38.4% | −74.7% | −122.3% |
| Cash flow | ||||
| Cash from operations | 4.5 | 5.8 | 6.8 | 15.8 |
| Capital spending | 4.4 | 11.2 | 20.7 | 55.0 |
| Free cash flow | 0.1 | −5.4 | −14.0 | −39.2 |
| Stock-based pay | 0.7 | 0.8 | 1.9 | 4.7 |
| Free cash flow after stock pay | −0.6 | −6.2 | −15.9 | −43.9 |
| Balance sheet | ||||
| Cash | — | 11.5 | 24.7 | 51.3 |
| Total debt | — | 0.0 | 22.9 | 38.8 |
| Net debt (negative = net cash) | — | −11.5 | −1.9 | −12.5 |
| Diluted shares | 2,759m | 9,956m | 2,926m | 6,296m |
| Quarter | 2025 Q1 Mar 2025 | 2025 Q2 Jun 2025 | 2025 Q3 Sept 2025 | 2025 Q4 Dec 2025 | 2026 Q1 Mar 2026 | 2026 Q2 Jun 2026 | 2026 Q3 Sept 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income | |||||||
| Revenue | 4.1 | 4.1 | 5.6 | 5.0 | 4.7 | 7.8 | 14.6 |
| Gross profit | — | 1.8 | 2.9 | — | — | 4.3 | 9.1 |
| EBITDA | — | 0.3 | 1.3 | — | — | 2.6 | 6.1 |
| Operating income | 0.0 | −1.0 | −0.3 | −1.4 | −1.9 | −0.1 | 2.8 |
| Net income | −0.5 | −1.0 | −1.1 | −2.3 | −4.3 | −0.5 | 4.4 |
| Diluted EPS | −$0.18 | −$0.34 | −$0.36 | −$0.80 | −$1.27 | −$0.09 | $0.35 |
| Growth (year on year) | |||||||
| Revenue | — | — | — | — | +15.4% | +91.9% | +161.4% |
| EBITDA | — | — | — | — | — | +662.4% | +364.6% |
| Margins | |||||||
| Gross margin | — | 43.9% | 51.5% | — | — | 55.3% | 62.4% |
| EBITDA margin | — | 8.4% | 23.7% | — | — | 33.2% | 42.1% |
| Operating margin | 0.7% | −23.8% | −4.9% | −27.7% | −41.4% | −1.8% | 19.1% |
| Net margin | −13.0% | −24.8% | −18.9% | −47.3% | −91.1% | −6.9% | 30.2% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | −83.9% | −78.6% | −55.8% | −85.2% | −193.0% | −204.1% | −68.3% |
| Cash flow | |||||||
| Cash from operations | 0.7 | −0.4 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 2.4 | 9.6 |
| Capital spending | 4.1 | 2.8 | 6.9 | 6.9 | 10.1 | 18.4 | 19.6 |
| Free cash flow | −3.4 | −3.2 | −3.1 | −4.2 | −9.1 | −16.0 | −10.0 |
| Stock-based pay | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 2.4 |
| Free cash flow after stock pay | −3.6 | −3.7 | −3.5 | −5.1 | −9.7 | −16.8 | −12.3 |
| Last 12 months unless stated | SPCX | NOC | LHX | GE | GD | TXT | Median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $32.0bn | $43.6bn | $23.3bn | $52.6bn | $56.5bn | $15.4bn | $817m |
| Revenue growth, last 12 months | 33.2% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 19.6% | 9.7% | 8.5% | 15.6% |
| Revenue growth, 3-year average | — | 4.1% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 10.9% | 4.8% | 12.6% |
| Revenue growth, latest quarter | 161.4% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 15.9% | 12.9% | 4.1% | 15.9% |
| Gross margin | — | — | 25.6% | 37.2% | 17.9% | 16.2% | 27.8% |
| Operating margin | −2.1% | 10.6% | 10.7% | 17.4% | 10.4% | — | 8.5% |
| Operating margin, 3-year average | — | 9.4% | 9.4% | 21.3% | 10.3% | — | 6.0% |
| Net margin | −8.6% | 10.4% | 8.8% | 17.3% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 5.5% |
| Cash from operations / revenue | 49.2% | 12.1% | 17.9% | 18.0% | 12.9% | 8.5% | 5.6% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | −122.3% | 8.8% | 15.6% | 15.3% | 10.2% | 5.2% | 3.3% |
| Free-cash-flow margin, 3-year average | — | 6.4% | 10.9% | 14.9% | 8.2% | 5.1% | 3.0% |
| Stock pay / revenue | 14.8% | 0.3% | 0.3% | — | 0.4% | — | 1.5% |
| Change in share count | −70.6% | −1.4% | −0.7% | −2.2% | 0.3% | −3.9% | 3.3% |
| Manager | Value | Shares | Share of 13F value | Shares QoQ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alphabet Inc. | $94.2B | 551.2M | 15.0% | — |
| Valor Management LLC | $86B | 503.4M | 13.7% | — |
| FMR LLC | $51.7B | 302.6M | 8.2% | — |
| VY Capital Management Co. Ltd. | $46.4B | 271.8M | 7.4% | — |
| Gigafund Management Company, LLC | $29.4B | 171.8M | 4.7% | — |
| Public Investment Fund | $26.3B | 154.1M | 4.2% | — |
| BAMCO Inc | $24.9B | 145.8M | 4.0% | — |
| D1 Capital Partners L.P. | $21.5B | 126.0M | 3.4% | — |
| Nvidia Corp | $21B | 122.8M | 3.3% | — |
| Sc Us (Ttgp), Ltd. | $20.9B | 122.5M | 3.3% | — |
| Capricorn Investment Group LLC | $20.6B | 120.8M | 3.3% | — |
| Darsana Capital Partners LP | $17.3B | 101.5M | 2.8% | — |
From Form 13F filings with the SEC ( quarterly data sets), as reported by each manager for June 30, 2026 and filed up to 45 days later. 13F reports cover long US-listed positions of managers above $100M only, so this is not Space Exploration Technologies Corp's complete shareholder register. Values are as reported by the filers ; 3 inconsistently scaled filing rows were excluded.
| Insider | Date | Trade | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shotwell Gwynne President and COO | September 22, 2026 | Sell pre-set plan | 151,844 | $153.95 | $23.4M |
| Shotwell Gwynne President and COO | September 22, 2026 | Sell pre-set plan | 145,809 | $153.27 | $22.3M |
| Shotwell Gwynne President and COO | September 22, 2026 | Sell pre-set plan | 7,600 | $151.93 | $1.2M |
| Shotwell Gwynne President and COO | September 22, 2026 | Sell pre-set plan | 24,417 | $154.72 | $3.8M |
| Shotwell Gwynne President and COO | September 22, 2026 | Sell pre-set plan | 12,500 | $151.15 | $1.9M |
| Musk Elon CEO, CTO & Chairman | April 2, 2026 | Sell | 11,390 | $105.32 | $1.2M |
From insiders' Form 4 filings with the SEC. Excludes awards, option exercises and shares withheld for tax. "Pre-set plan" means the filing marks the trade as made under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. See every insider trade since five years ago, on a price chart.
In the last 12 months, 5 members of Congress disclosed 6 purchases and 1 sale of Space Exploration Technologies Corp shares.
| Data | Last updated | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Share price | Exchange closing prices | |
| Financial statements | SEC 10-K and 10-Q filings | |
| News and updates | Company releases and SEC 8-K filings | |
| Analyst estimates | Aggregated analyst estimates | |
| Valuation and scores | Our models, from the filed figures |
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