TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc. is a US-listed company in the mortgage REITs industry. Its financial year ends in December.
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~$3.1
Valuation models combined (2)
Base case. Range ~$2.1–$4.9. Weighted average of 2 models (residual income, price-to-book vs peers), the residual income counting double.
No Buy/Hold/Sell rating is issued: only 2 valuation models apply; a rating needs 3.
TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc. valuation: adjust assumptions and compare models →
What company insiders, investment funds and members of Congress have been doing with the stock, from their own filings.
Revenue for the twelve months to September 2026 was $142m, down 2.4% on a year earlier, about the same pace as a quarter earlier. The diluted share count is down 3.0% on a year earlier, which lifts each remaining share. Our valuation models combined value is $3.82 a share, against a share price of $6.50.
Source: 10-Q filed October 26, 2026 on SEC EDGAR · Financials · Valuation
Written from the company's filings and our models when each quarter's report arrives. Figures in older notes are as published at the time. Not investment advice.
TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc.'s trailing-twelve-month revenue fell 2.4% year on year, with a free-cash-flow margin of 54.7%. Where it stands out: change in share count of -3.0% ranks 3 of 14 mortgage reits companies we cover. Where it lags: stock pay as % of revenue of 6.9% ranks 10 of 10 mortgage reits companies we cover.
Current signal Free cash flow diverging from earnings: TTM free cash flow fell 7.0% while net income fell 32.2%: a 25pp divergence.
Assembled from SEC-filed figures — the full workings are on this page and in our methodology. Observations, not recommendations.
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Third-party market data · may be delayed
Company announcements, filed results and changes that matter to shareholders.
We value TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc. as a mortgage reit, with every model that fits that kind of business. Cost of equity 8.6%: the 10-year Treasury yield (4.9%) plus a beta of 0.82 times a 4.5% equity risk premium.
| Model | Value per share | In the combined value? |
|---|---|---|
| Residual income Book value plus the present value of returns above the cost of equity, fading over ten years. | ~$2.1 ~$1.1–$4.0 | Primary model, counts double |
| Justified price-to-book Book value times (return on equity - growth) / (cost of equity - growth): steady-state returns. | — | Does not apply: return on equity is not positive |
| Price-to-book vs peers Book value per share times peers' typical (harmonic-mean) price-to-book. | ~$4.9 ~$3.7–$9.1 | Included |
| Dividend discount (growing dividend) Today's dividend growing 2.5% a year, discounted at the cost of equity. | — | Does not apply: pays no regular dividend |
| Combined value Weighted average of the models that apply: the primary model (residual income) counts double. Models more than 5x or less than 0.2x the share price, or more than 3x away from the other models' median, are left out. | ~$3.1 ~$2.1–$4.9 | 2 models |
Different models fail in different ways, so where several apply we average them rather than trust one. Peer-based models compare TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc. with mortgage REITs in our coverage, using third-party market data. Model values are estimates under stated assumptions, updated as new filings arrive; not price targets or investment advice. How each model works.
Strong moat
How hard TPG RE Finance Trust's competitive advantage looks for rivals to wear away, judged from 10 years of its own filings: returns on capital, pricing power, profit durability, cash conversion and discipline.
Net income has been a median 1.8% of total assets over 10 years.
Net margin has been a median 46.3%; its worst year was -71.8%.
The diluted share count fell 1.4% over five years; stock-based pay has been a median 4.3% of revenue.
AI disruption exposure: Low. In this industry, the business rests on physical assets, regulated networks or products AI itself depends on.
| Fiscal year | EPS | Growth | Revenue | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | $0.89 | −9% | $104m | −0% |
| Next | $1.11 | +25% | $116m | +12% |
Next year's EPS estimate has moved −2.5% in 90 days, across 5 analysts.
The consensus EPS forecast for the current fiscal year is −13.0% on 90 days ago. In the last 30 days, 0 analysts raised TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc.'s forecast and 1 cut it.
Average of analysts' published estimates (third-party data).
| Period | Current fiscal year | Next fiscal year |
|---|---|---|
| 90 days ago | $1.02 | $1.13 |
| 60 days ago | $1.00 | $1.11 |
| 30 days ago | $0.99 | $1.10 |
| 7 days ago | $0.99 | $1.11 |
| Now | $0.89 | $1.11 |
| Quarter to | Estimate | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sept 2026 | $0.26 | $0.24 | −5.9% |
| Jun 2026 | $0.26 | $0.23 | −9.8% |
| Mar 2026 | $0.25 | $0.25 | −0.7% |
| Dec 2025 | $0.25 | $0.24 | −5.3% |
Adjusted EPS as companies report it, against the average analyst estimate.
Last 12 months −10.7%
| Part | Then | Now | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (last 12 months) | $148m | $144m | −2.6% |
| Net margin | 45.4% | 40.2% | −11.3% |
| P/E multiple | 9.2x | 9.2x | +0.2% |
| Share count | 81m | 78m | +3.2% |
Biggest factor: net margin.
Last 3 years +79.2%
| Part | Then | Now | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (last 12 months) | $126m | $144m | +14.7% |
| P/S multiple | 2.3x | 3.7x | +59.8% |
| Share count | 76m | 78m | −2.3% |
Biggest factor: p/s multiple. Loss-making at one end, so the split uses price/sales.
| Calendar year | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 to date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return | ||||||
| TRTX | +25% | −38% | +10% | +47% | +14% | −13% |
| Industry peers (median) | +26% | −21% | +17% | +3% | +6% | −21% |
| S&P 500 | +29% | −18% | +26% | +25% | +18% | +11% |
| Months that ended higher | ||||||
| TRTX | 67% | 33% | 42% | 67% | 58% | 46% |
| S&P 500 | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 75% | 46% |
| Largest fall from a high during the year | ||||||
| TRTX | −18% | −45% | −38% | −22% | −20% | −33% |
| S&P 500 | −5% | −25% | −10% | −8% | −19% | −9% |
Worst fall since July 20, 2017: 86% from February 21, 2020 to April 3, 2020. Getting back needed a 624% gain, reached on September 8, 2025, 1984 days after the low.
| Results released | Next day | S&P 500 next day | 5 days | 21 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 26, 2026 | +0.3% | +1.3% | +8.8% | — |
| July 28, 2026 | −4.1% | −1.3% | −6.5% | −9.9% |
| April 28, 2026 | −1.5% | −0.5% | +1.3% | 0.0% |
| February 17, 2026 | −4.5% | +0.7% | −5.5% | −9.8% |
| October 28, 2025 | −2.5% | +0.3% | +0.3% | +2.5% |
| July 29, 2025 | +4.5% | −0.4% | +6.3% | +10.5% |
| April 29, 2025 | +3.1% | +0.7% | +0.8% | +4.5% |
| February 18, 2025 | −4.8% | +0.5% | −2.5% | −1.7% |
| October 29, 2024 | +5.1% | −0.1% | +5.0% | +9.8% |
| July 30, 2024 | −1.2% | +1.1% | −7.1% | +1.6% |
| April 30, 2024 | +8.8% | −1.9% | +16.0% | +12.1% |
| February 20, 2024 | +14.2% | −0.5% | +23.2% | +38.4% |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved October 31, 2026.
| Period | Revenue (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY23 Q4 | $116.4M |
| FY24 Q1 | $130.1M |
| FY24 Q2 | $136.7M |
| FY24 Q3 | $149.9M |
| FY24 Q4 | $153.1M |
| FY25 Q1 | $151.2M |
| FY25 Q2 | $148.1M |
| FY25 Q3 | $145.8M |
| FY25 Q4 | $146.1M |
| FY26 Q1 | $146.4M |
| FY26 Q2 | $144.2M |
| FY26 Q3 | $142.3M |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved October 31, 2026.
| Period | Revenue growth, TTM YoY |
|---|---|
| FY23 Q4 | -19.7% |
| FY24 Q1 | -1.2% |
| FY24 Q2 | 8.8% |
| FY24 Q3 | 24.0% |
| FY24 Q4 | 31.6% |
| FY25 Q1 | 16.3% |
| FY25 Q2 | 8.3% |
| FY25 Q3 | -2.7% |
| FY25 Q4 | -4.6% |
| FY26 Q1 | -3.2% |
| FY26 Q2 | -2.6% |
| FY26 Q3 | -2.4% |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved October 31, 2026.
| Period | FCF margin (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY24 Q1 | 70.4% |
| FY24 Q2 | 79.5% |
| FY24 Q3 | 70.2% |
| FY24 Q4 | 69.3% |
| FY25 Q1 | 57.7% |
| FY25 Q2 | 57.9% |
| FY25 Q3 | 57.3% |
| FY25 Q4 | 56.6% |
| FY26 Q1 | 60.5% |
| FY26 Q2 | 59.2% |
| FY26 Q3 | 54.7% |
| Fiscal year | 2015 Dec 2015 | 2016 Dec 2016 | 2017 Dec 2017 | 2018 Dec 2018 | 2019 Dec 2019 | 2020 Dec 2020 | 2021 Dec 2021 | 2022 Dec 2022 | 2023 Dec 2023 | 2024 Dec 2024 | 2025 Dec 2025 | LTM Sept 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income | ||||||||||||
| Revenue | 81 | 92 | 122 | 141 | 167 | 177 | 156 | 145 | 116 | 153 | 146 | 142 |
| Net income | 59 | 70 | 94 | 107 | 126 | −137 | 139 | −60 | −117 | 74 | 60 | 45 |
| Diluted EPS | $1.81 | $1.69 | $1.74 | $1.70 | $1.73 | −$2.03 | $0.87 | −$0.95 | −$1.69 | $0.75 | $0.57 | $0.58 |
| Growth (year on year) | ||||||||||||
| Revenue | — | +13.9% | +32.4% | +15.2% | +18.4% | +6.1% | −12.1% | −6.9% | −19.7% | +31.6% | −4.6% | −2.4% |
| Net income | — | +17.9% | +34.9% | +13.3% | +18.1% | −208.3% | — | −143.4% | — | — | −18.9% | −32.2% |
| Diluted EPS | — | −6.6% | +3.0% | −2.3% | +1.8% | −217.3% | — | −209.2% | — | — | −24.0% | −30.1% |
| Margins | ||||||||||||
| Net margin | 73.2% | 75.7% | 77.1% | 75.9% | 75.8% | −77.3% | 89.0% | −41.4% | −100.2% | 48.5% | 41.3% | 31.9% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | — | 92.2% | 74.4% | 76.4% | 73.0% | 74.6% | 84.9% | 69.3% | 68.8% | 73.2% | 61.8% | — |
| Cash flow | ||||||||||||
| Cash from operations | 99 | 86 | 91 | 108 | 122 | 132 | 132 | 100 | 80 | 112 | 90 | 85 |
| Capital spending | — | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Free cash flow | — | 85 | 91 | 108 | 122 | 132 | 132 | 100 | 80 | 112 | 90 | — |
| Stock-based pay | — | — | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 10 | 10 |
| Free cash flow after stock pay | — | — | 91 | 107 | 119 | 126 | 126 | 95 | 72 | 106 | 81 | — |
| Balance sheet | ||||||||||||
| Cash | 105 | 103 | 75 | 40 | 79 | 320 | 261 | 254 | 206 | 190 | 88 | 71 |
| Total debt | 0 | 541 | 2,125 | 1,510 | 1,806 | 1,826 | 3,722 | 4,179 | 3,048 | 2,572 | 3,309 | 4,198 |
| Net debt (negative = net cash) | −105 | 438 | 2,050 | 1,470 | 1,727 | 1,506 | 3,462 | 3,925 | 2,842 | 2,381 | 3,222 | 4,127 |
| Diluted shares | 33m | 41m | 54m | 63m | 73m | 77m | 82m | 77m | 78m | 80m | 79m | 78m |
| Returned to shareholders | ||||||||||||
| Buybacks | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 25 | 25 |
| Total returned | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 25 | 25 |
| Quarter | 2024 Q4 Dec 2024 | 2025 Q1 Mar 2025 | 2025 Q2 Jun 2025 | 2025 Q3 Sept 2025 | 2025 Q4 Dec 2025 | 2026 Q1 Mar 2026 | 2026 Q2 Jun 2026 | 2026 Q3 Sept 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income | ||||||||
| Revenue | 35 | 37 | 36 | 38 | 35 | 37 | 34 | 36 |
| Net income | 11 | 14 | 21 | 22 | 4 | 19 | 13 | 9 |
| Diluted EPS | $0.09 | $0.12 | $0.21 | $0.23 | $0.01 | $0.19 | $0.12 | $0.08 |
| Growth (year on year) | ||||||||
| Revenue | +10.3% | −4.9% | −7.9% | −5.7% | +0.9% | +0.7% | −6.1% | −5.1% |
| Net income | +67.4% | −18.1% | −16.5% | −0.9% | −62.8% | +38.0% | −36.3% | −57.4% |
| Diluted EPS | +200.0% | −29.4% | −19.2% | 0.0% | −88.9% | +58.3% | −42.9% | −65.2% |
| Margins | ||||||||
| Net margin | 30.7% | 37.0% | 57.0% | 58.1% | 11.3% | 50.8% | 38.6% | 26.1% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 73.4% | 51.7% | 68.3% | 57.7% | 70.4% | 65.9% | 63.4% | 40.1% |
| Cash flow | ||||||||
| Cash from operations | 25 | 19 | 25 | 22 | 25 | 25 | 22 | 14 |
| Capital spending | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Free cash flow | 25 | 19 | 25 | 22 | 25 | 25 | 22 | 14 |
| Stock-based pay | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Free cash flow after stock pay | 24 | 17 | 23 | 20 | 20 | 23 | 19 | 13 |
| Last 12 months unless stated | TRTX | CMTG | ARI | ACR | BRSP | PMT | Median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $142m | $152m | $238m | $80m | $339m | $348m | $142m |
| Revenue growth, last 12 months | −2.4% | −30.9% | −14.7% | −3.4% | 2.5% | 14.6% | −2.4% |
| Revenue growth, 3-year average | 5.6% | −21.1% | −11.5% | −3.5% | −6.6% | −3.0% | −5.1% |
| Revenue growth, latest quarter | −5.1% | −42.5% | −37.4% | −4.1% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 0.9% |
| Net margin | 31.9% | −354.1% | 55.5% | 26.3% | 5.6% | 47.8% | 11.4% |
| Cash from operations / revenue | 59.9% | −4.9% | 36.3% | 4.1% | 21.3% | <−999% | 27.9% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 54.7% | −19.3% | 30.1% | 4.1% | 18.0% | — | 24.1% |
| Free-cash-flow margin, 3-year average | 60.7% | 5.2% | 54.0% | 20.1% | 22.7% | — | 35.0% |
| Stock pay / revenue | 6.9% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 2.2% | 3.8% | 1.4% | 4.3% |
| Change in share count | −3.0% | 0.8% | −1.1% | −7.0% | −2.4% | 4.7% | 0.5% |
| Measure | Company | Peer median | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth Growth | -2.4% | -2.4% | 7 of 14 |
| Change in growth rate Growth | +0.2pp | +2.3pp | 8 of 14 |
| Net margin Profitability | 31.9% | 11.4% | 5 of 14 |
| Stock pay as % of revenue Cash generation | 6.9% | 5.4% | 10 of 10 |
| Change in share count Balance sheet | -3.0% | 0.5% | 3 of 14 |
Rank 1 = best in the group (for spending, debt and dilution, lower ranks first).
| Manager | Value | Shares | Share of 13F value | Shares QoQ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long Pond Capital, LP | $58.8M | 7.0M | 12.0% | 0.0% |
| Blackrock, Inc. | $54.4M | 6.5M | 11.1% | ▲ 3.6% |
| Vanguard Capital Management LLC | $28.1M | 3.4M | 5.7% | ▲ 4.0% |
| Mirae Asset Global Etfs Holdings Ltd. | $27.5M | 3.3M | 5.6% | ▲ 3.3% |
| State Of New Jersey Common Pension Fund A | $26.4M | 3.1M | 5.4% | 0.0% |
| Tpg Gp A, LLC | $20M | 2.4M | 4.1% | 0.0% |
| Gratia Capital, LLC | $17.3M | 2.1M | 3.5% | ▼ 23.5% |
| Geode Capital Management, LLC | $16.4M | 2.0M | 3.3% | ▲ 6.1% |
| State Street Corp | $15.8M | 1.8M | 3.2% | ▼ 3.2% |
| Goldman Sachs Group Inc | $12.7M | 1.5M | 2.6% | ▲ 26.2% |
| Two Sigma Investments, LP | $12.2M | 1.5M | 2.5% | ▼ 22.2% |
| Qube Research & Technologies Ltd | $10.8M | 1.3M | 2.2% | ▼ 20.4% |
From Form 13F filings with the SEC ( quarterly data sets), as reported by each manager for June 30, 2026 and filed up to 45 days later. 13F reports cover long US-listed positions of managers above $100M only, so this is not TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc.'s complete shareholder register. Values are as reported by the filers ; 1 inconsistently scaled filing rows were excluded.
From insiders' Form 4 filings with the SEC. Excludes awards, option exercises and shares withheld for tax. "Pre-set plan" means the filing marks the trade as made under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. See every insider trade since five years ago, on a price chart.
Next expected around January 25, 2027 estimated from the company's past filing pattern, not announced
| Data | Last updated | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Share price | Exchange closing prices | |
| Financial statements | SEC 10-K and 10-Q filings | |
| News and updates | Company releases and SEC 8-K filings | |
| Analyst estimates | Aggregated analyst estimates | |
| Valuation and scores | Our models, from the filed figures |
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