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USA Rare Earth, Inc. (USAR) stock

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NASDAQ: USAR Nasdaq Diversified Metals & Mining Next results ~November 5, 2026

USA Rare Earth, Inc. is a US-listed company in the diversified metals & mining industry. Its financial year ends in December.

Stock price today

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Third-party market data · may be delayed

Model estimate per share

~$5.5

Valuation models combined (2)

Base case. Range ~$4.6–$5.7. Weighted average of 2 models (growth cash-flow model, forward price-to-sales vs peers), the growth cash-flow model counting double.

Price vs value

No Buy/Hold/Sell rating is issued: limited reported history: available models are shown without a Buy/Hold/Sell rating.

USA Rare Earth, Inc. valuation: adjust assumptions and compare models →

Who’s trading

What company insiders, investment funds and members of Congress have been doing with the stock, from their own filings.

  • Insiders2 buying, 2 selling2 purchases and 2 sales by directors and officers, last 12 monthsInsider trades
  • Funds263 adding, 106 cuttingOf 45 active managers that changed their stake, 30 added; quarter to June 30, 2026Fund buyers and sellers

The Fundamentalytics view

Next results ~November 5, 2026 (estimated)

Current signal Free cash flow diverging from earnings: TTM free cash flow fell 684.4% while net income fell 186.1%: a 498pp divergence.

Assembled from SEC-filed figures — the full workings are on this page and in our methodology. Observations, not recommendations.

Highlights

How we pick these

Strengths

Nothing in USA Rare Earth, Inc.'s latest figures clears our strength thresholds.

Things to watch

  • Share dilution. Diluted shares rose 117.8% in a year.
  • Volatile shares. Over the past year the shares showed annualised volatility of 105% and a beta of 4.0 against the S&P 500.
  • Heavily shorted. 13.8% of the shares available to trade are sold short (3.7 days of average volume to cover).
  • Missing expectations. Earnings per share fell short of the consensus estimate in 3 of the last four quarters.
  • Estimates being cut. Analysts' consensus for next year's earnings per share has fallen 10.0% over 90 days.

Latest results: FY2026 Q2

Filed August 10, 2026
Earnings per share
-$0.15 against an average estimate of -$0.13: missed by 19.0%
Revenue
$6m
Share reaction
-2.2% in the first session after the results on August 10, 2026, against -0.3% for the S&P 500
Next report
November 5, 2026; average EPS estimate -$0.15

USA Rare Earth's figures from its SEC filings and results release; estimates are the analysts' average. Not a recommendation.

Price chart

  • 1 day-8.0%
  • 1 week-0.6%
  • 1 month-34.8%
  • This year-25.6%
  • 1 year-54.5%
  • S&P 500 this year+11.2%

Closing prices to 2026-11-02. Price change only, dividends excluded.

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Third-party market data · may be delayed

At a glance

Trailing twelve months, from SEC filings

Profitability

EPS (TTM, diluted)
$-1.77

Growth

Share count change
+117.8%

Cash

Free cash flow (TTM)
-$246M

Earnings

Last results
August 10, 2026

News & updates

Updated October 31, 2026

Company announcements, filed results and changes that matter to shareholders.

  1. Insider trade
  2. Announcement
  3. Announcement
  4. Leadership
  5. Shareholder vote
  6. Announcement
  7. Results
  8. Deal
  9. Share issue
  10. Leadership
  11. Agreement

Refreshed hourly when new source data is available. Summaries are checked against company releases and SEC filings. Company announcement headlines are labelled when a checked summary is unavailable.

Valuation

USA Rare Earth, Inc. valuation models and calculator

Fundamentalytics rating

model v1.6 · 2026-11-03

Not rated: limited reported history: available models are shown without a Buy/Hold/Sell rating.

Valuation models

We value USA Rare Earth, Inc. as an operating company, with every model that fits that kind of business. Cost of equity 9.7%: the 10-year Treasury yield (4.9%) plus a beta of 1.06 times a 4.5% equity risk premium.

Value per share by model
Model Value per share In the combined value?
Growth cash-flow model Revenue for this year and next from analysts' consensus, then growth fading to 2.5%; the operating margin moving to profitable peers'; investment needed per dollar of growth from peers; reduced by a failure probability. For young or fast-growing companies. The starting margin is normalized to between -100% and 60%; net margin is a proxy when operating income is not tagged. Uses analysts' consensus estimates (third-party data), not our forecasts. ~$5.7 ~$3.4–$8.0 Primary model, counts double
Forward price-to-earnings vs peers Next year's consensus earnings per share times peers' typical (harmonic-mean) forward price-to-earnings. Uses analysts' consensus estimates (third-party data), not our forecasts. ~$0.3 ~$0.3–$0.7 Left out: out of range vs price (0.03x)
Residual income Book value plus the present value of returns above the cost of equity, fading over ten years. — Does not apply: the model gives no positive value
Justified price-to-book Book value times (return on equity - growth) / (cost of equity - growth): steady-state returns. — Does not apply: return on equity is not positive
Forward price-to-sales vs peers Next year's consensus sales per share times peers' typical forward price-to-sales; only when earnings are negative. Uses analysts' consensus estimates (third-party data), not our forecasts. ~$4.6 ~$3.6–$22 Included, half weight
Revenue-to-maturity model Revenue grown to maturity with the cash margin moving to the industry's; for companies not yet profitable. — Does not apply: revenue and margins don't support a positive value
Combined value Weighted average of the models that apply: the primary model (growth cash-flow model) counts double. Models more than 5x or less than 0.2x the share price, or more than 3x away from the other models' median, are left out. ~$5.5 ~$4.6–$5.7 2 models

Different models fail in different ways, so where several apply we average them rather than trust one. Peer-based models compare USA Rare Earth, Inc. with Diversified Metals & Mining in our coverage, using third-party market data. Model values are estimates under stated assumptions, updated as new filings arrive; not price targets or investment advice. How each model works.

Valuation multiples over time Market data may be delayed

At fiscal year end 20242025
Share price$11.48$11.90
Market value$683m$1.2bn
+ Net debt (− = net cash)−$15m−$358m
Enterprise value$669m$808m
Multiples
Price / sales —n/m
Price / earnings ——
Price / free cash flow ——
EV / EBITDA ——

Market value uses the period's diluted share count; figures for each fiscal year use that year's results and the price at year end. "Now" uses today's price and the last twelve months.

Moat

Not assessed: fewer than five years of comparable figures in the filings. AI disruption exposure for this industry: Low.

A rules-based reading of reported figures, not a forecast and not investment advice. How the score is built: methodology.

Forecasts and guidance

Next results: November 5, 2026, after the close. Analysts expect revenue of $14m and EPS of −$0.15 (range −$0.38 to −$0.04) for the quarter.

Analysts' consensus

Fiscal yearEPSGrowthRevenueGrowth
Current −$0.57 +31% $74m +4375%
Next $0.03 +105% $713m +870%

Next year's EPS estimate has moved −10.0% in 90 days, across 4 analysts.

How the EPS forecast has moved

The consensus EPS forecast for the current fiscal year is +3.0% on 90 days ago. In the last 30 days, 1 analyst raised USA Rare Earth, Inc.'s forecast and 1 cut it.

Consensus EPS forecast USA Rare Earth, Inc., last 90 days
−$0.60 −$0.40 −$0.20 $0.00 $0.20 90 days ago 60 days ago 30 days ago 7 days ago Now Current fiscal year, 90 days ago: −$0.55 Current fiscal year, 60 days ago: −$0.55 Current fiscal year, 30 days ago: −$0.55 Current fiscal year, 7 days ago: −$0.59 Current fiscal year, Now: −$0.57 −$0.57 Next fiscal year, 90 days ago: $0.03 Next fiscal year, 60 days ago: $0.03 Next fiscal year, 30 days ago: $0.03 Next fiscal year, 7 days ago: −$0.04 Next fiscal year, Now: $0.03 $0.03

Average of analysts' published estimates (third-party data).

View chart data
Period Current fiscal yearNext fiscal year
90 days ago −$0.55$0.03
60 days ago −$0.55$0.03
30 days ago −$0.55$0.03
7 days ago −$0.59−$0.04
Now −$0.57$0.03

Earnings against estimates

Quarter toEstimateActualSurprise
Jun 2026 −$0.13 −$0.15 −19.0%
Mar 2026 −$0.23 −$0.12 +46.7%
Dec 2025 −$0.14 −$0.19 −39.0%
Sept 2025 −$0.07 −$0.25 −275.0%

Adjusted EPS as companies report it, against the average analyst estimate.

Analyst recommendations

9 analysts, Oct 2026
Buy9100%
Hold00%
Sell00%

Monthly trend

  1. Oct 2026189
  2. Sep 2026178
  3. Aug 2026178

Counts of recommendations published by analysts covering USA Rare Earth, Inc., by month. Source: Aggregated broker recommendations (third-party data). Aggregated counts only: we do not reproduce any firm's recommendation or price target, and these are not Fundamentalytics ratings.

Positioning

Short interest
13.8%
of tradable shares
Days to cover
3.69
at average volume
Short interest, 1 month
+32%
to October 15, 2026
Held by institutions
38%
of shares
Held by insiders
33.7%
of shares
Employees
132
full time

Consensus figures average analysts' published estimates (third-party data); guidance is the company's own. Neither is our forecast. Short interest is reported twice a month and lags. Market data may be delayed.

This section is general information, not investment advice or a personal recommendation, and it does not take account of your objectives or circumstances. Forecasts and guidance are estimates, not promises: companies miss their own guidance and analysts' figures are often revised. Prices can fall as well as rise, and you can lose money. See our disclaimer.

Share-price performance

Market data may be delayed

Recent prices are available. Older price history and the statistics that need it are being loaded in the background.

Return and risk by year

Calendar year 202420252026 to date
Return
USAR+11%+4%−26%
Industry peers (median)−24%+75%−47%
S&P 500+25%+18%+11%
Months that ended higher
USAR100%58%36%
S&P 50075%75%46%
Largest fall from a high during the year
USAR−21%−69%−71%
S&P 500−8%−19%−9%

Worst fall since July 17, 2023: 77% from October 13, 2025 to November 2, 2026. Getting back needed a 337% gain, and the shares have not yet recovered.

Price behaviour

52-week range
$8.86 – $30.70
From 52-week high
−71.2%
vs 50-day average
−37.2%
vs 200-day average
−53.0%
Volatility (1 year)
105%
Beta vs S&P 500
4.01

Volatility is the annualised standard deviation of daily returns. Beta 1.5 means the shares typically moved 1.5% for each 1% move in the S&P 500 over the past year. Prices to November 2, 2026.

Share price after results

Next day
4 up, 3 down
typical move ±5.7%
After a week
1 up, 6 down
typical move ±6.7%
After a month
3 up, 4 down
typical move ±21.9%
Results releasedNext dayS&P 500 next day5 days21 days
August 10, 2026 −2.2% −0.3% −0.2% −11.7%
May 13, 2026 −2.8% +1.4% −11.7% −13.9%
March 30, 2026 −1.8% +2.6% −5.1% +42.9%
January 26, 2026 +6.4% +0.9% −10.7% −18.9%
November 6, 2025 +2.9% −1.0% −12.0% +1.5%
August 11, 2025 +17.1% +0.9% −3.4% −14.7%
May 14, 2025 +6.9% +0.6% +4.1% +49.6%

From the close before the release date to the close 1, 5 and 21 trading days after it, so releases before the open and after the close are both captured. Past moves don't predict future ones.

Fundamentals

Data: SEC EDGAR XBRL company facts (as filed in 10-K/10-Q); forms 10-K, 10-Q. Generated November 3, 2026. Definitions in our methodology.

Financial statements

US$ millions unless shown otherwise. Fiscal years, plus the last twelve months (LTM) when newer.

Fiscal year 2024 Dec 2024 2025 Dec 2025
Income
Revenue 0 2
Gross profit 0 0
EBITDA −15 −59
Operating income −16 −60
Net income −16 −298
Diluted EPS −$0.40 −$3.31
Margins
Gross margin — 11.9%
EBITDA margin — <−999%
Operating margin — <−999%
Net margin — <−999%
Free-cash-flow margin — <−999%
Cash flow
Cash from operations −13 −49
Capital spending 3 37
Free cash flow −16 −86
Stock-based pay 2 9
Free cash flow after stock pay −18 −95
Balance sheet
Cash 17 360
Total debt 2 2
Net debt (negative = net cash) −15 −358
Diluted shares 60m 98m
Returned to shareholders
Buybacks 247 —
Total returned 247 —

Source: SEC EDGAR XBRL company facts (US and foreign periodic filings); column headings link to the filing. EBITDA is operating income plus depreciation and amortisation. Free cash flow is cash from operations minus capital spending. Growth is left blank when last year's figure was a loss or under 2% of revenue. Share counts and EPS are restated for stock splits. A dash means the company didn't report the figure.

Financial health

2 of 2 checks passed · June 30, 2026
What it owns · $3.0bn
Short-term assets $1.7bnLonger-term assets $1.3bn
What it owes, and who funded it · $3.0bn
Short-term liabilities $51mLonger-term liabilities $400mShareholders' equity $2.5bn
  • Short-term assets cover short-term liabilities $1.7bn of assets due within a year against $51m of liabilities due within a year.
  • Short-term assets cover long-term liabilities $1.7bn short-term assets against $400m of longer-dated liabilities.
  • More cash than debt Cash or debt not separately reported. Not assessable.
  • Debt below 40% of shareholders' equity Equity or debt not reported. Not assessable.
  • Debt burden no higher than five years ago Five-year comparison not available. Not assessable.
  • A year's operating cash flow covers at least 20% of debt Cash flow or debt not reported. Not assessable.
  • Operating profit covers interest at least five times over Interest not separately reported. Not assessable.

From USA Rare Earth, Inc.'s latest balance sheet as filed. Checks are fixed, documented rules (methodology), counted only where the company reports the figures — a dot means the filing doesn't break the item out. Descriptions of reported data, not advice.

Dividends, buybacks and capital spending

Diluted share count
+117.8%
year over year

Where the revenue comes from

Fiscal year to December 31, 2025
Geography
Region Revenue Share YoY
Outside the US $1.5M 94.0% —
United States $99,000 6.0% —

From USA Rare Earth, Inc.'s 10-K filed March 30, 2026, as tagged in the filing. View filing. Indented rows are part of the line above; their share is of that line. In the bars, the faint bar behind is the year before.

Who owns it

Funds buying and selling
Reported value
$3B
Institutions reporting
391
Shares held vs prior quarter
▲ 8.2%
Positions opened / closed
116 / 44

Top buyers and sellers, Q2 2026: 263 institutions bought and 106 sold ; the biggest buyer was Price T Rowe Associates Inc (+5.7M shares) and the biggest seller Alyeska Investment Group, L.P (−5.3M). See which funds bought and sold →

Largest reported holders, June 30, 2026
Manager Value Shares Share of 13F value Shares QoQ
Blackrock, Inc. $336M 15.6M 11.3% ▲ 10.5%
State Street Corp $292M 13.5M 9.8% ▲ 12.1%
Alyeska Investment Group, L.P. $244M 11.3M 8.2% ▼ 31.9%
UBS Group AG $192M 8.9M 6.5% ▲ 129.5%
Price T Rowe Associates Inc $192M 8.9M 6.5% ▲ 178.3%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC $178M 8.2M 6.0% ▼ 1.5%
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC $119M 5.5M 4.0% ▲ 290.4%
Geode Capital Management, LLC $105M 4.9M 3.5% ▲ 12.5%
Bayshore Capital Advisors, LLC $95.8M 4.4M 3.2% ▼ 49.2%
Renaissance Technologies LLC $85.3M 4.0M 2.9% ▲ 313.6%
Hood River Capital Management LLC $79.6M 3.7M 2.7% ▼ 13.1%
Marex Group Ltd $46.2M 2.1M 1.6% ▲ 48.2%

From Form 13F filings with the SEC ( quarterly data sets), as reported by each manager for June 30, 2026 and filed up to 45 days later. 13F reports cover long US-listed positions of managers above $100M only, so this is not USA Rare Earth, Inc.'s complete shareholder register. Values are as reported by the filers ; 1 inconsistently scaled filing rows were excluded.

Insider trading activity

Full insider history and chart
Insider purchases History → $2.2M 2 trades by 2 insiders, last 12 months Insider sales History → $1.5M 2 trades by 2 insiders · 0% under pre-set plans
Net ▲ $661,994 net buying
Insider Date Trade Shares Price Value
Humpton Barbara Former Chief Executive Officer October 2, 2026 Sell 88,391 $13.75 $1.2M
Trabuco Carolyn Director June 8, 2026 Sell 13,000 $22.77 $296,010
Blitzer Michael Director January 29, 2026 Buy 100,000 $21.44 $2.1M
Trabuco Carolyn Director January 29, 2026 Buy 1,300 $22.60 $29,380

From insiders' Form 4 filings with the SEC. Excludes awards, option exercises and shares withheld for tax. "Pre-set plan" means the filing marks the trade as made under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. See every insider trade since five years ago, on a price chart.

Earnings dates and SEC filings

Results announcements

Next expected around November 2, 2026 estimated from the company's past filing pattern, not announced

  • August 10, 2026
  • May 13, 2026
  • March 30, 2026
  • January 26, 2026
  • November 6, 2025
  • August 11, 2025

Recent SEC filings

Data status

When each part of this page on USA Rare Earth, Inc. was last updated.

DataLast updatedSource
Share priceExchange closing prices
Financial statementsSEC 10-K and 10-Q filings
News and updatesCompany releases and SEC 8-K filings
Analyst estimatesAggregated analyst estimates
Valuation and scoresOur models, from the filed figures

How we build and check these figures: methodology and data sources.

USA Rare Earth, Inc. in brief

What does USA Rare Earth, Inc. do?
USA Rare Earth, Inc. is a US-listed company in the diversified metals & mining industry. Its financial year ends in December.
What is USA Rare Earth, Inc.'s stock ticker?
USA Rare Earth, Inc. trades under the ticker USAR on Nasdaq. This page brings together its financial statements, valuation models, ownership and recent company updates.
Who are USA Rare Earth, Inc.'s largest institutional shareholders?
By value reported in 13F filings for June 30, 2026, the largest reported holders are Blackrock, Inc., State Street Corp and Alyeska Investment Group, L.P. 13F reports cover long US-listed positions of managers above $100M, filed up to 45 days after quarter end.
What is USA Rare Earth, Inc.'s market cap?
On December 31, 2025, USA Rare Earth, Inc.'s market capitalisation was about $1.2B and net debt of -$358M. Market figures come from third-party market data and may be delayed.
Are insiders buying or selling USA Rare Earth, Inc. stock?
Over the last 12 months, USA Rare Earth, Inc.'s directors and officers reported 2 open-market purchases and 2 sales on Form 4. The insider trading page charts every trade.
When is USA Rare Earth, Inc.'s next earnings date?
Around November 5, 2026, estimated from the spacing of its past results announcements (8-K filings). That is an estimate, not a confirmed date — USA Rare Earth, Inc. announces its own schedule.