U.S. Bancorp is a US-listed company in the diversified banks industry. Its financial year ends in December.
Loading chart…
Third-party market data · may be delayed
~$53
Valuation models combined (6)
Base case. Range ~$34–$59. Weighted average of 6 models (residual income, justified price-to-book, price-to-book vs return on equity (peers), price-to-book vs peers, forward price-to-earnings vs peers, dividend discount (two-stage)), the residual income counting double.
Overvalued
The price is above our entire value range; our base value is 12% below it.
Price used: $60.49, November 2, 2026
U.S. Bancorp valuation: adjust assumptions and compare models →
What company insiders, investment funds and members of Congress have been doing with the stock, from their own filings.
Revenue for the twelve months to June 2026 was $29.7bn, up 6.7% on a year earlier, faster than 4.7% a quarter earlier. Our valuation models combined value is $58.46 a share, against a share price of $58.88.
Source: 10-Q filed August 6, 2026 on SEC EDGAR · Financials · Valuation
Written from the company's filings and our models when each quarter's report arrives. Figures in older notes are as published at the time. Not investment advice.
Current signal Revenue growth accelerating: TTM revenue growth rose to 6.7% (+2.0pp vs the prior quarter).
Assembled from SEC-filed figures — the full workings are on this page and in our methodology. Observations, not recommendations.
Loading chart…
Third-party market data · may be delayed
Company announcements, filed results and changes that matter to shareholders.
The company also guided to total fee revenue of 13.00 to 14.00 for the 4Q26; total noninterest expense of 8.00 for the 4Q26.
We value U.S. Bancorp as a bank or lender, with every model that fits that kind of business. Cost of equity 8.9%: the 10-year Treasury yield (4.9%) plus a beta of 0.87 times a 4.5% equity risk premium.
| Model | Value per share | In the combined value? |
|---|---|---|
| Residual income Book value plus the present value of returns above the cost of equity, fading over ten years. | ~$53 ~$39–$73 | Primary model, counts double |
| Justified price-to-book Book value times (return on equity - growth) / (cost of equity - growth): steady-state returns. | ~$58 ~$50–$70 | Included |
| Price-to-book vs return on equity (peers) The price-to-book that peers with this return on equity trade on, from a line fitted across peers. | ~$58 ~$35–$81 | Included |
| Price-to-book vs peers Book value per share times peers' typical (harmonic-mean) price-to-book. | ~$34 ~$44–$66 | Included |
| Forward price-to-earnings vs peers Next year's consensus earnings per share times peers' typical (harmonic-mean) forward price-to-earnings. Uses analysts' consensus estimates (third-party data), not our forecasts. | ~$57 ~$54–$68 | Included |
| Dividend discount (two-stage) Dividends for five years at the growth the business can fund, then a steady payout and growth. | ~$59 ~$50–$72 | Included |
| Combined value Weighted average of the models that apply: the primary model (residual income) counts double. Models more than 5x or less than 0.2x the share price, or more than 3x away from the other models' median, are left out. | ~$53 ~$34–$59 | 6 models |
Different models fail in different ways, so where several apply we average them rather than trust one. Peer-based models compare U.S. Bancorp with banks and lenders in our coverage, using third-party market data. Model values are estimates under stated assumptions, updated as new filings arrive; not price targets or investment advice. How each model works.
Strong moat
How hard U.S. Bancorp's competitive advantage looks for rivals to wear away, judged from 10 years of its own filings: returns on capital, pricing power, profit durability, cash conversion and discipline.
Net income has been a median 1.1% of total assets over 10 years.
Net margin has been a median 27.6%; its worst year was 19.3%.
The diluted share count rose 3.6% over five years; stock-based pay has been a median 0.8% of revenue.
AI disruption exposure: Medium. In this industry, AI could change how the product is made or sold, without replacing the core asset. The score above includes a 5-point deduction for that exposure (81 before it).
| Fiscal year | EPS | Growth | Revenue | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | $5.28 | +14% | $31.1bn | +8% |
| Next | $5.83 | +10% | $33.3bn | +7% |
Next year's EPS estimate has moved +0.7% in 90 days, across 23 analysts.
The consensus EPS forecast for the current fiscal year is +1.3% on 90 days ago. In the last 30 days, 11 analysts raised U.S. Bancorp's forecast and 3 cut it.
Average of analysts' published estimates (third-party data).
| Period | Current fiscal year | Next fiscal year |
|---|---|---|
| 90 days ago | $5.21 | $5.79 |
| 60 days ago | $5.21 | $5.80 |
| 30 days ago | $5.22 | $5.80 |
| 7 days ago | $5.28 | $5.83 |
| Now | $5.28 | $5.83 |
| Quarter to | Estimate | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sept 2026 | $1.32 | $1.34 | +1.7% |
| Jun 2026 | $1.28 | $1.35 | +5.5% |
| Mar 2026 | $1.14 | $1.18 | +3.3% |
| Dec 2025 | $1.19 | $1.26 | +6.0% |
Adjusted EPS as companies report it, against the average analyst estimate.
Last 12 months +34.6%
| Part | Then | Now | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (last 12 months) | $27.8bn | $29.7bn | +6.7% |
| Net margin | 24.8% | 27.5% | +10.9% |
| P/E multiple | 10.2x | 11.5x | +13.3% |
| Share count | 1561m | 1556m | +0.3% |
Biggest factor: p/e multiple.
Last 3 years +93.7%
| Part | Then | Now | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (last 12 months) | $27.0bn | $29.7bn | +9.8% |
| Net margin | 21.4% | 27.5% | +28.3% |
| P/E multiple | 8.2x | 11.5x | +41.3% |
| Share count | 1513m | 1556m | −2.7% |
Biggest factor: p/e multiple.
| Calendar year | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 to date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return | ||||||
| USB | +24% | −19% | +5% | +16% | +17% | +17% |
| Industry peers (median) | +38% | −19% | +5% | +34% | +28% | +5% |
| S&P 500 | +29% | −18% | +26% | +25% | +18% | +11% |
| Months that ended higher | ||||||
| USB | 67% | 42% | 42% | 50% | 50% | 55% |
| S&P 500 | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 75% | 46% |
| Largest fall from a high during the year | ||||||
| USB | −15% | −37% | −42% | −14% | −28% | −16% |
| S&P 500 | −5% | −25% | −10% | −8% | −19% | −9% |
Worst fall since October 29, 2015: 52% from January 14, 2022 to May 16, 2023. Getting back needed a 109% gain, reached on December 10, 2025, 939 days after the low.
| Results released | Next day | S&P 500 next day | 5 days | 21 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 15, 2026 | +4.4% | −0.8% | +6.7% | — |
| July 16, 2026 | +0.2% | −1.5% | +0.5% | +3.8% |
| April 16, 2026 | +1.0% | +1.5% | +0.5% | −5.8% |
| January 20, 2026 | +2.0% | −0.9% | +3.9% | +6.4% |
| October 16, 2025 | −1.6% | −0.1% | +2.9% | +1.4% |
| July 17, 2025 | 0.0% | +0.5% | +0.8% | +0.5% |
| April 16, 2025 | −1.1% | −2.1% | +3.7% | +16.3% |
| January 16, 2025 | −5.0% | +0.8% | −3.6% | −5.8% |
| October 16, 2024 | +6.3% | +0.4% | +3.3% | +7.0% |
| July 17, 2024 | +2.6% | −2.2% | +3.4% | −1.1% |
| April 17, 2024 | −3.8% | −0.8% | +1.5% | +1.6% |
| January 17, 2024 | −3.0% | +0.3% | +2.7% | +0.4% |
How U.S. Bancorp’s listed options are priced, and three ways to use them that follow from our valuation. Quotes are delayed, read November 2, 2026. Check the live chain at your broker before trading.
Implied volatility is within its normal range against realised. Selling options earns the usual premium, nothing extra.
Our rule for “rich”: implied at least 1.2× 60-day realised (beyond measurement noise), above 1-year realised (not just a calm spell), and in the top 20% of our coverage that day. Never with results inside the option’s life. These are our conventions, built on research showing option prices usually imply more movement than follows, most when the gap is wide. How we judge this.
Not offered: fundamentals grade C+ (needs B+ or better).
We suggest selling a put only on well-rated companies, at a strike where the price you would pay if assigned (strike less premium) is at or below our fair value.
Own 100 shares, sell the $63.00 call expiring December 11, 2026 (39 days) for $0.94 a share — $94.00 per contract.
Previous session · Bid $0.94, ask $1.10, quoted Mon 2 Nov, 17:39 New York time with USB at $60.40. Option prices move with the shares: check the live chain at your broker before trading.
Own the shares, buy the $56.00 put and sell the $63.00 call, both expiring November 27, 2026 (25 days).
Offered because the shares trade at or above our fair value of $53.00: a way to hold on with a floor under the price, paid for by giving up upside the model does not expect. Strikes near 25-delta; the put at its ask and the call at its bid. Protection has a cost over time: research on protective puts finds they have usually lowered returns.
General research, not personal advice. Options can lose you more than you expect and are not suitable for everyone: put sellers can be made to buy shares that keep falling, call sellers give up gains above the strike, and results or news can move prices sharply. Chances shown are approximations from each option’s delta. Spreads, fees and early assignment are not modelled.
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved October 20, 2026.
| Period | Revenue (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY23 Q3 | $27.8B |
| FY23 Q4 | $28.1B |
| FY24 Q1 | $27.7B |
| FY24 Q2 | $27.4B |
| FY24 Q3 | $27.2B |
| FY24 Q4 | $27.5B |
| FY25 Q1 | $27.7B |
| FY25 Q2 | $27.8B |
| FY25 Q3 | $28.3B |
| FY25 Q4 | $28.7B |
| FY26 Q1 | $29B |
| FY26 Q2 | $29.7B |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved October 20, 2026.
| Period | Revenue growth, TTM YoY |
|---|---|
| FY23 Q3 | 18.1% |
| FY23 Q4 | 16.4% |
| FY24 Q1 | 7.5% |
| FY24 Q2 | 1.2% |
| FY24 Q3 | -2.0% |
| FY24 Q4 | -2.4% |
| FY25 Q1 | 0.1% |
| FY25 Q2 | 1.7% |
| FY25 Q3 | 4.0% |
| FY25 Q4 | 4.4% |
| FY26 Q1 | 4.7% |
| FY26 Q2 | 6.7% |
What U.S. Bancorp earned on its loans and securities in FY2025, what it paid depositors and lenders, and how its revenue split between running costs, credit losses, tax and profit.
| Interest income | $31B | |
|---|---|---|
| Fee and other income | $11.9B | 41.7% of revenue |
| Interest paid | $14.3B | |
| Net interest income | $16.6B | 58.3% of revenue |
| Revenue | $28.5B | |
| Non-interest expense | $16.8B | 59.0% of revenue |
| Credit-loss provisions | $2.2B | 7.7% of revenue |
| Pre-tax profit | $9.5B | 33.3% of revenue |
| Income tax | $1.9B | 6.7% of revenue |
| Net income | $7.6B | 26.5% of revenue |
| Fiscal year | 2009 Dec 2009 | 2010 Dec 2010 | 2011 Dec 2011 | 2012 Dec 2012 | 2013 Dec 2013 | 2014 Dec 2014 | 2015 Dec 2015 | 2016 Dec 2016 | 2017 Dec 2017 | 2018 Dec 2018 | 2019 Dec 2019 | 2020 Dec 2020 | 2021 Dec 2021 | 2022 Dec 2022 | 2023 Dec 2023 | 2024 Dec 2024 | 2025 Dec 2025 | LTM Jun 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income | ||||||||||||||||||
| Revenue | 16.5 | 17.9 | 18.9 | 20.3 | 19.6 | 20.2 | 20.3 | 21.3 | 21.9 | 22.6 | 22.9 | 23.2 | 22.7 | 24.3 | 28.1 | 27.5 | 28.7 | 29.7 |
| Net income | 2.2 | 3.3 | 4.9 | 5.6 | 5.8 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 6.2 | 7.1 | 6.9 | 5.0 | 8.0 | 5.8 | 5.4 | 6.3 | 7.6 | 8.2 |
| Diluted EPS | $0.97 | $1.73 | $2.46 | $2.84 | $3.00 | $3.08 | $3.16 | $3.24 | $3.51 | $4.14 | $4.16 | $3.06 | $5.10 | $3.69 | $3.27 | $3.79 | $4.62 | $5.25 |
| Growth (year on year) | ||||||||||||||||||
| Revenue | +13.3% | +8.9% | +5.3% | +7.4% | −3.4% | +2.9% | +0.7% | +4.9% | +2.8% | +3.4% | +1.1% | +1.5% | −2.2% | +7.0% | +15.8% | −2.4% | +4.4% | +6.7% |
| Net income | −25.2% | +50.4% | +46.9% | +15.9% | +3.3% | +0.3% | +0.5% | +0.2% | +5.6% | +14.1% | −2.6% | −28.3% | +60.6% | −26.8% | −6.8% | +16.0% | +20.2% | +18.4% |
| Diluted EPS | −39.8% | +78.4% | +42.2% | +15.4% | +5.6% | +2.7% | +2.6% | +2.5% | +8.3% | +17.9% | +0.5% | −26.4% | +66.7% | −27.6% | −11.4% | +15.9% | +21.9% | +18.7% |
| Margins | ||||||||||||||||||
| Net margin | 13.4% | 18.5% | 25.8% | 27.8% | 29.8% | 29.0% | 29.0% | 27.6% | 28.4% | 31.3% | 30.2% | 21.4% | 35.0% | 24.0% | 19.3% | 22.9% | 26.4% | 27.5% |
| Cash flow | ||||||||||||||||||
| Cash from operations | 7.6 | 5.2 | 9.8 | 8.0 | 11.4 | 5.3 | 8.8 | 5.3 | 6.5 | 10.6 | 4.9 | 3.7 | 9.9 | 21.1 | 8.4 | 11.4 | 8.0 | 12.5 |
| Stock-based pay | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Balance sheet | ||||||||||||||||||
| Cash | 6.2 | 14.5 | 14.0 | 8.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 22.4 | 62.6 | 28.9 | 53.5 | 61.2 | 56.5 | 46.9 | 66.5 |
| Total debt | 63.9 | 64.1 | 62.4 | 51.8 | 47.7 | 62.2 | 60.0 | 47.3 | 48.9 | 55.5 | 63.9 | 53.1 | 43.9 | 71.0 | 66.8 | 73.5 | 77.9 | 96.0 |
| Net debt (negative = net cash) | 57.7 | 49.6 | 48.5 | 43.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 41.5 | −9.5 | 15.0 | 17.5 | 5.6 | 17.0 | 31.0 | 29.5 |
| Diluted shares | 1,859m | 1,921m | 1,923m | 1,896m | 1,849m | 1,813m | 1,772m | 1,724m | 1,683m | 1,638m | 1,583m | 1,510m | 1,490m | 1,490m | 1,543m | 1,561m | 1,558m | 1,556m |
| Returned to shareholders | ||||||||||||||||||
| Dividends | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.2 |
| Buybacks | 0.0 | — | 0.5 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.7 |
| Total returned | 1.0 | 0.4 | 1.3 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 4.9 | 7.0 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 3.9 |
| Quarter | 2024 Q3 Sept 2024 | 2024 Q4 Dec 2024 | 2025 Q1 Mar 2025 | 2025 Q2 Jun 2025 | 2025 Q3 Sept 2025 | 2025 Q4 Dec 2025 | 2026 Q1 Mar 2026 | 2026 Q2 Jun 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income | ||||||||
| Revenue | 6,864 | 7,009 | 6,958 | 7,004 | 7,329 | 7,365 | 7,288 | 7,712 |
| Net income | 1,714 | 1,663 | 1,709 | 1,815 | 2,001 | 2,045 | 1,945 | 2,177 |
| Diluted EPS | $1.03 | $1.02 | $1.03 | $1.11 | $1.22 | $1.27 | $1.18 | $1.35 |
| Growth (year on year) | ||||||||
| Revenue | −2.4% | +3.7% | +3.6% | +2.0% | +6.8% | +5.1% | +4.7% | +10.1% |
| Net income | +12.5% | +96.3% | +29.6% | +13.2% | +16.7% | +23.0% | +13.8% | +19.9% |
| Diluted EPS | +13.2% | +112.5% | +32.1% | +14.4% | +18.4% | +24.5% | +14.6% | +21.6% |
| Margins | ||||||||
| Net margin | 25.0% | 23.7% | 24.6% | 25.9% | 27.3% | 27.8% | 26.7% | 28.2% |
| Cash flow | ||||||||
| Cash from operations | 972 | 4,843 | −308 | 1,913 | 3,529 | 2,836 | 1,340 | 4,820 |
| Stock-based pay | 42 | 33 | 112 | 47 | 42 | 34 | 52 | 73 |
| Last 12 months unless stated | USB | BNS | HDB | BMO | PNC | CM | Median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $29.7bn | $27.0bn | $26.4bn | $25.9bn | $25.0bn | $20.8bn | $28.3bn |
| Revenue growth, last 12 months | 6.7% | 9.0% | 1.7% | 7.5% | 13.2% | 10.6% | 9.6% |
| Revenue growth, 3-year average | 3.2% | — | 86.1% | — | 4.1% | — | 4.9% |
| Revenue growth, latest quarter | 10.1% | — | — | — | 21.4% | — | 10.1% |
| Net margin | 27.5% | 20.6% | 30.3% | 24.0% | 29.4% | 28.9% | 27.2% |
| Cash from operations / revenue | 42.2% | 14.3% | 48.1% | 28.2% | 29.9% | 47.5% | 30.6% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | — | 10.1% | 45.8% | 22.2% | 28.4% | — | 24.3% |
| Free-cash-flow margin, 3-year average | — | 7.5% | 41.6% | 64.8% | 29.2% | — | 27.9% |
| Stock pay / revenue | 0.7% | 0.0% | 1.0% | — | 1.1% | 0.1% | 1.6% |
| Change in share count | −0.3% | 1.3% | 0.6% | −0.7% | 0.1% | −0.1% | −0.5% |
| Measure | Company | Peer median | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth Growth | 6.7% | 10.2% | 10 of 14 |
| Change in growth rate Growth | +2.0pp | +1.8pp | 6 of 14 |
| Net margin Profitability | 27.5% | 27.5% | 7 of 14 |
| Stock pay as % of revenue Cash generation | 0.7% | 1.7% | 3 of 8 |
| Change in share count Balance sheet | -0.3% | -0.3% | 8 of 14 |
Rank 1 = best in the group (for spending, debt and dilution, lower ranks first).
| Manager | Value | Shares | Share of 13F value | Shares QoQ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blackrock, Inc. | $7.7B | 127.1M | 9.9% | ▼ 1.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management LLC | $6.1B | 101.3M | 7.9% | ▲ 0.4% |
| State Street Corp | $4.5B | 73.1M | 5.8% | ▲ 5.4% |
| Jpmorgan Chase & Co | $3.7B | 59.7M | 4.7% | ▼ 3.2% |
| FMR LLC | $3.1B | 51.3M | 4.0% | ▼ 10.3% |
| Mufg Bank, Ltd. | $2.7B | 44.4M | 3.5% | 0.0% |
| Geode Capital Management, LLC | $2.4B | 39.3M | 3.1% | ▲ 2.1% |
| Morgan Stanley | $1.8B | 30.6M | 2.4% | ▲ 4.3% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC | $1.8B | 30.0M | 2.3% | ▲ 1.4% |
| Price T Rowe Associates Inc | $1.5B | 25.0M | 2.0% | ▲ 0.6% |
| Davis Selected Advisers | $1.3B | 21.5M | 1.7% | ▼ 3.5% |
| Norges Bank | $1.2B | 19.9M | 1.6% | — |
From Form 13F filings with the SEC ( quarterly data sets), as reported by each manager for June 30, 2026 and filed up to 45 days later. 13F reports cover long US-listed positions of managers above $100M only, so this is not U.S. Bancorp's complete shareholder register. Values are as reported by the filers ; 9 inconsistently scaled filing rows were excluded.
| Insider | Date | Trade | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kedia Gunjan President & CEO | August 28, 2026 | Sell | 27,267 | $62.37 | $1.7M |
| Chosy James L Senior EVP and General Counsel | July 23, 2026 | Sell | 22,968 | $63.28 | $1.5M |
| Philipson Stephen L Vice Chair | July 20, 2026 | Sell | 36,906 | $63.08 | $2.3M |
| Dilip Venkatachari SEVP & Chief Info & Tech Off | May 5, 2026 | Sell | 34,522 | $55.52 | $1.9M |
| Richard Jodi L Vice Chair | April 21, 2026 | Sell | 40,000 | $57.00 | $2.3M |
| Runkel Mark G. Vice Chair | February 6, 2026 | Sell | 32,195 | $60.65 | $2M |
| Barcelos Elcio R.T. Senior EVP, Chief HR Officer | February 3, 2026 | Sell | 17,204 | $58.43 | $1M |
From insiders' Form 4 filings with the SEC. Excludes awards, option exercises and shares withheld for tax. "Pre-set plan" means the filing marks the trade as made under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. See every insider trade since five years ago, on a price chart.
No trades in U.S. Bancorp disclosed in the last 12 months; 71 earlier trades on record.
Next expected around January 19, 2027 estimated from the company's past filing pattern, not announced
| Data | Last updated | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Share price | Exchange closing prices | |
| Financial statements | SEC 10-K and 10-Q filings | |
| News and updates | Company releases and SEC 8-K filings | |
| Analyst estimates | Aggregated analyst estimates | |
| Valuation and scores | Our models, from the filed figures |
New research on the companies we cover arrives in the weekly email. Free, one email a week.
