Velocity Financial, Inc. entered a material agreement; made a public disclosure
SEC 8-KRead source ↗
Velocity Financial, Inc. is a US-listed company in the commercial & residential mortgage finance industry. Its financial year ends in December.
Stock price today
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Third-party market data · may be delayed
Model estimate per share
~$32
Forward price-to-earnings vs peers
Base case. Range ~$25–$52. Next year's consensus earnings per share times peers' typical (harmonic-mean) forward price-to-earnings.
Price vs value
No Buy/Hold/Sell rating is issued: limited reported history: available models are shown without a Buy/Hold/Sell rating.
Velocity Financial, Inc. valuation: adjust assumptions and compare models →
Who’s trading
What company insiders, investment funds and members of Congress have been doing with the stock, from their own filings.
- Insiders0 buying, 4 selling0 purchases and 29 sales by directors and officers, last 12 monthsInsider trades
- Funds64 adding, 36 cuttingOf 19 active managers that changed their stake, 15 added; quarter to June 30, 2026Fund buyers and sellers
The Fundamentalytics view
Current signal Results well ahead of expectations: Reported earnings per share beat the analysts' consensus estimate by 9% in the quarter to 2026-06-30, the 4th beat in the last four quarters.
Assembled from SEC-filed figures — the full workings are on this page and in our methodology. Observations, not recommendations.
Highlights
How we pick theseStrengths
- Beating expectations. Earnings per share beat the analysts' consensus estimate in each of the last four quarters.
Things to watch
- Heavily shorted. 29.2% of the shares available to trade are sold short (7.3 days of average volume to cover).
Latest results
- Earnings per share
- $0.71 against an average estimate of $0.65: beat by 9.2%
- Share reaction
- +2.2% in the first session after the results on August 5, 2026, against -0.4% for the S&P 500
- Next report
- November 4, 2026; average EPS estimate $0.71
Price chart
- 1 day+2.7%
- 1 week+4.7%
- 1 month+10.6%
- This year-22.3%
- 1 year-13.3%
- 5 years+25.5%
- S&P 500 this year+11.2%
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Third-party market data · may be delayed
At a glance
Earnings
- Last results
- August 5, 2026
News & updates
Company announcements, filed results and changes that matter to shareholders.
- Agreement
- Announcement
Velocity Financial, Inc. made a public disclosure
SEC 8-KRead source ↗ - Results
Velocity Financial, Inc. reported results
SEC 8-KRead source ↗
Valuation models
We value Velocity Financial, Inc. as an asset manager, broker or exchange, with every model that fits that kind of business. Cost of equity 8.1%: the 10-year Treasury yield (4.9%) plus a beta of 0.69 times a 4.5% equity risk premium.
| Model | Value per share | In the combined value? |
|---|---|---|
| Forward price-to-earnings vs peers Next year's consensus earnings per share times peers' typical (harmonic-mean) forward price-to-earnings. Uses analysts' consensus estimates (third-party data), not our forecasts. | ~$32 ~$25–$52 | Primary model, counts double |
| Residual income Book value plus the present value of returns above the cost of equity, fading over ten years. | — | Does not apply: no twelve-month earnings or share count in the filings yet |
| Justified price-to-book Book value times (return on equity - growth) / (cost of equity - growth): steady-state returns. | — | Does not apply: no twelve-month earnings or share count in the filings yet |
| Price-to-book vs peers Book value per share times peers' typical (harmonic-mean) price-to-book. | — | Does not apply: no twelve-month earnings or share count in the filings yet |
| Dividend discount (two-stage) Dividends for five years at the growth the business can fund, then a steady payout and growth. | — | Does not apply: no twelve-month earnings or share count in the filings yet |
| Combined value Weighted average of the models that apply: the primary model (forward price-to-earnings vs peers) counts double. Models more than 5x or less than 0.2x the share price, or more than 3x away from the other models' median, are left out. | ~$32 ~$25–$52 | 1 model |
Different models fail in different ways, so where several apply we average them rather than trust one. Peer-based models compare Velocity Financial, Inc. with asset managers, brokers and exchanges in our coverage, using third-party market data. Model values are estimates under stated assumptions, updated as new filings arrive; not price targets or investment advice. How each model works.
Moat
Not assessed: fewer than five years of comparable figures in the filings. AI disruption exposure for this industry: Medium.
Forecasts and guidance
Next results: November 4, 2026, after the close. Analysts expect revenue of $53m and EPS of $0.71 (range $0.68 to $0.74) for the quarter.
Analysts' consensus
| Fiscal year | EPS | Growth | Revenue | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | $2.81 | −4% | $205m | +10% |
| Next | $3.03 | +8% | $241m | +18% |
Next year's EPS estimate has moved +1.1% in 90 days, across 3 analysts.
How the EPS forecast has moved
The consensus EPS forecast for the current fiscal year is +3.6% on 90 days ago. In the last 30 days, 2 analysts raised Velocity Financial, Inc.'s forecast and 0 cut it.
Average of analysts' published estimates (third-party data).
View chart data
| Period | Current fiscal year | Next fiscal year |
|---|---|---|
| 90 days ago | $2.71 | $3.00 |
| 60 days ago | $2.76 | $3.00 |
| 30 days ago | $2.81 | $3.03 |
| 7 days ago | $2.81 | $3.03 |
| Now | $2.81 | $3.03 |
Earnings against estimates
| Quarter to | Estimate | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2026 | $0.65 | $0.71 | +9.2% |
| Mar 2026 | $0.64 | $0.68 | +6.2% |
| Dec 2025 | $0.67 | $0.93 | +38.8% |
| Sept 2025 | $0.60 | $0.69 | +15.0% |
Adjusted EPS as companies report it, against the average analyst estimate.
Positioning
- Short interest
- 29.2% of tradable shares
- Days to cover
- 7.27 at average volume
- Short interest, 1 month
- −1% to October 15, 2026
- Held by institutions
- 100% of shares
- Held by insiders
- 3.0% of shares
- Employees
- 364 full time
Share-price performance
Market data may be delayedReturn and risk by year
| Calendar year | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 to date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return | ||||||
| VEL | +120% | −30% | +78% | +14% | +6% | −22% |
| Industry peers (median) | +5% | −11% | +11% | +6% | +6% | +2% |
| S&P 500 | +29% | −18% | +26% | +25% | +18% | +11% |
| Months that ended higher | ||||||
| VEL | 75% | 33% | 67% | 50% | 50% | 46% |
| S&P 500 | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 75% | 46% |
| Largest fall from a high during the year | ||||||
| VEL | −19% | −38% | −26% | −13% | −20% | −30% |
| S&P 500 | −5% | −25% | −10% | −8% | −19% | −9% |
Worst fall since January 17, 2020: 83% from February 20, 2020 to April 3, 2020. Getting back needed a 493% gain, reached on November 14, 2023, 1320 days after the low.
Price behaviour
- 52-week range
- $14.51 – $20.76
- From 52-week high
- −22.3%
- vs 50-day average
- +0.1%
- vs 200-day average
- −9.2%
- Volatility (1 year)
- 26%
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.29
Share price after results
- Next day
- 6 up, 6 down typical move ±3.8%
- After a week
- 6 up, 6 down typical move ±5.9%
- After a month
- 8 up, 4 down typical move ±7.0%
| Results released | Next day | S&P 500 next day | 5 days | 21 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 5, 2026 | +2.2% | −0.4% | +1.1% | +3.3% |
| May 6, 2026 | −5.4% | +1.1% | −10.2% | −9.7% |
| March 13, 2026 | −3.1% | +0.4% | −3.0% | +9.7% |
| January 26, 2026 | +3.9% | +0.9% | +5.7% | −3.2% |
| November 7, 2025 | −1.6% | +1.7% | −2.0% | +1.4% |
| August 8, 2025 | +9.6% | +0.6% | +16.2% | +14.3% |
| May 2, 2025 | −5.1% | +0.9% | −8.7% | −5.7% |
| March 10, 2025 | −3.4% | −3.5% | −6.5% | −16.1% |
| November 8, 2024 | +3.0% | +0.5% | +2.4% | +5.3% |
| August 2, 2024 | −1.2% | −4.7% | −1.7% | +2.4% |
| May 3, 2024 | +1.5% | +2.3% | +5.9% | +6.9% |
| March 8, 2024 | +5.9% | −0.7% | +7.6% | +5.4% |
Fundamentals
Who owns it
Funds buying and selling- Reported value
- $719M
- Institutions reporting
- 99
- Shares held vs prior quarter
- ▲ 0.9%
- Positions opened / closed
- 15 / 14
| Manager | Value | Shares | Share of 13F value | Shares QoQ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Snow Phipps Group, LLC | $246M | 13.4M | 34.3% | 0.0% |
| Allianz Asset Management Gmbh | $233M | 12.6M | 32.5% | 0.0% |
| Beach Point Capital Management LP | $122M | 6.6M | 16.9% | ▲ 0.4% |
| Blackrock, Inc. | $27.5M | 1.5M | 3.8% | ▼ 9.3% |
| Dimensional Fund Advisors LP | $12.1M | 657K | 1.7% | ▲ 12.7% |
| Adage Capital Partners Gp, L.L.C. | $9.3M | 506K | 1.3% | ▲ 4.7% |
| Vanguard Capital Management LLC | $9M | 487K | 1.3% | ▲ 1.3% |
| American Century Companies Inc | $6.6M | 357K | 0.9% | ▲ 25.2% |
| Geode Capital Management, LLC | $5M | 273K | 0.7% | ▲ 9.2% |
| State Street Corp | $4.6M | 250K | 0.6% | ▲ 14.5% |
| Goldman Sachs Group Inc | $4.3M | 235K | 0.6% | ▼ 14.5% |
| D. E. Shaw & Co., Inc. | $2.3M | 124K | 0.3% | ▲ 41.5% |
From Form 13F filings with the SEC ( quarterly data sets), as reported by each manager for June 30, 2026 and filed up to 45 days later. 13F reports cover long US-listed positions of managers above $100M only, so this is not Velocity Financial, Inc.'s complete shareholder register. Values are as reported by the filers .
Insider trading activity
Full insider history and chart Insider purchases History → $0 0 trades by 0 insiders, last 12 months Insider sales History → $1.4M 29 trades by 4 insiders · 91% under pre-set plans
Net ▼ $1.4M net selling
| Insider | Date | Trade | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Szczepaniak Mark R Chief Financial Officer | September 10, 2026 | Sell pre-set plan | 2,000 | $18.03 | $36,060 |
| Kelly Roland Thomas Chief Legal Officer and GC | September 1, 2026 | Sell pre-set plan | 1,600 | $18.00 | $28,800 |
| Tam Fiona Chief Accounting Officer | August 11, 2026 | Sell pre-set plan | 1,232 | $19.00 | $23,408 |
| Taylor Jeffrey T. Executive VP, Capital Markets | August 11, 2026 | Sell pre-set plan | 4,330 | $19.06 | $82,530 |
| Szczepaniak Mark R Chief Financial Officer | August 10, 2026 | Sell pre-set plan | 2,000 | $18.16 | $36,320 |
| Szczepaniak Mark R Chief Financial Officer | August 6, 2026 | Sell pre-set plan | 400 | $18.00 | $7,200 |
| Kelly Roland Thomas Chief Legal Officer and GC | August 6, 2026 | Sell pre-set plan | 1,600 | $18.00 | $28,800 |
| Szczepaniak Mark R Chief Financial Officer | July 28, 2026 | Sell pre-set plan | 400 | $18.00 | $7,200 |
| Taylor Jeffrey T. Executive VP, Capital Markets | July 7, 2026 | Sell pre-set plan | 2,165 | $19.00 | $41,135 |
| Tam Fiona Chief Accounting Officer | July 7, 2026 | Sell pre-set plan | 68 | $19.00 | $1,292 |
| Kelly Roland Thomas Chief Legal Officer and GC | July 1, 2026 | Sell pre-set plan | 1,600 | $18.57 | $29,712 |
| Szczepaniak Mark R Chief Financial Officer | June 26, 2026 | Sell pre-set plan | 1,573 | $18.07 | $28,424 |
From insiders' Form 4 filings with the SEC. Excludes awards, option exercises and shares withheld for tax. "Pre-set plan" means the filing marks the trade as made under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. See every insider trade since five years ago, on a price chart.
Earnings dates and SEC filings
Results announcements
Next expected around October 30, 2026 estimated from the company's past filing pattern, not announced
- August 5, 2026
- May 6, 2026
- March 13, 2026
- January 26, 2026
- November 7, 2025
- August 8, 2025
Recent SEC filings
- 8-K Current report
- 10-Q Quarterly report
- 8-K Current report
- 8-K Current report
- 8-K Current report
- 8-K Current report
- 10-Q Quarterly report
- 8-K Current report
Data status
| Data | Last updated | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Share price | Exchange closing prices | |
| News and updates | Company releases and SEC 8-K filings | |
| Analyst estimates | Aggregated analyst estimates | |
| Valuation and scores | Our models, from the filed figures |
Velocity Financial, Inc. in brief
- What does Velocity Financial, Inc. do?
- Velocity Financial, Inc. is a US-listed company in the commercial & residential mortgage finance industry. Its financial year ends in December.
- What is Velocity Financial, Inc.'s stock ticker?
- Velocity Financial, Inc. trades under the ticker VEL on NYSE. This page brings together its financial statements, valuation models, ownership and recent company updates.
- Who are Velocity Financial, Inc.'s largest institutional shareholders?
- By value reported in 13F filings for June 30, 2026, the largest reported holders are Snow Phipps Group, LLC, Allianz Asset Management Gmbh and Beach Point Capital Management LP. 13F reports cover long US-listed positions of managers above $100M, filed up to 45 days after quarter end.
- Are insiders buying or selling Velocity Financial, Inc. stock?
- Over the last 12 months, Velocity Financial, Inc.'s directors and officers reported 0 open-market purchases and 29 sales on Form 4. The insider trading page charts every trade.
- When is Velocity Financial, Inc.'s next earnings date?
- Around November 4, 2026, estimated from the spacing of its past results announcements (8-K filings). That is an estimate, not a confirmed date — Velocity Financial, Inc. announces its own schedule.
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