undamentalytics Newsletter

Congress: members

Brad Ashford

Backtest from 9 Jul 2015 to 2 Nov 2026 · weekly · hypothetical

Watch this strategy
Return a year
+17.6%
S&P 500 +14.1%
Last 12 months
+0.8%
S&P 500 +12.1%
Sharpe ratio
0.72
S&P 500 0.73
Biggest drop
−47.1%
S&P 500 −31.8%
$10.0k$20.0k$40.0k 201520172019202120232025 $62.8k$44.4k
Brad AshfordS&P 500 $10,000 in Brad Ashford from 9 Jul 2015 against the S&P 500 (total return) over the same dates, marked weekly, log scale. Hypothetical: before taxes and trading costs.

About

Mirrors the disclosed stock holdings of Rep. Brad Ashford (Independent, NE) and family. It buys on the first trading day after each report is filed, sized by the middle of the value band reported, starts from the holdings listed in the member's annual disclosure report once that report is public, and holds each position until a sale is reported. Call options count as the stock until they expire. Members often report weeks or months late, so this is what a follower could actually have done.

Brad Ashford's trades →

Key statistics

MeasureStrategyS&P 500
Return a year (compound)+17.6%+14.1%
Total return+528%+344%
Last 12 months+0.8%+12.1%
Last 3 months−1.3%—
Last month−4.2%—
This year so far+0.4%—
Volatility a year22.8%16.7%
Sharpe ratio0.720.73
Biggest drop−47.1%−31.8%
Beta to the S&P 5001.091.00
Alpha a year (t-statistic)+3.2% (0.78)—
Share of weeks up55%—

Sharpe ratio uses returns above the 3-month Treasury bill rate. Alpha is the yearly return left after allowing for the strategy's exposure to the S&P 500 (CAPM); a t-statistic below about 2 means it cannot be told apart from luck. 28 reported trades were copied.

Insights

CompanyWeightHeld sinceReturn since
AMZN45.3%3 Sept 2015+885.9%
META29.4%5 Aug 2015+539.3%
UNP18.9%9 Jul 2015+310.8%
MSB4.6%6 Dec 2016+305.1%
CLF1.9%21 Dec 2016+65.0%
PeriodReturn a yearS&P 500SharpeS&P 500Biggest dropBetaAlpha (t)
Whole backtest9 Jul 2015 to 2 Nov 2026+17.6%+14.1%0.720.73−47.1%1.09+3.2% (0.78)
2018 onwards5 Jan 2018 to 2 Nov 2026+14.1%+13.9%0.550.66−47.1%1.07+0.6% (0.12)
Last three years3 Nov 2023 to 2 Nov 2026+19.6%+21.8%0.701.16−24.6%1.31−5.1% (−0.63)
Last year7 Nov 2025 to 2 Nov 2026+2.2%+14.2%0.040.84−17.0%1.61−15.0% (−1.05)
DateCompanyAction
21 Dec 2016CLFBought
6 Dec 2016MSBBought
3 Sept 2015AMZNBought
5 Aug 2015METABought
4 Aug 2015BRK.BBought
9 Jul 2015UNPBought
9 Jul 2015COSTBought

Dated on the first trading day after the report was filed, when a follower could have acted.

DateCompanyAction
5 Aug 2015COSTSold
5 Aug 2015BRK.BSold

Dated on the first trading day after the report was filed, when a follower could have acted.

Backtests are hypothetical and use today's listed companies only, which flatters results. Past performance does not predict future returns. This is research, not investment advice. How we backtest