Congress: members
Lloyd Smucker
Backtest from 16 May 2017 to 2 Nov 2026 · weekly · hypothetical
- Return a year
- +26.2% S&P 500 +14.7%
- Last 12 months
- +25.1% S&P 500 +12.1%
- Sharpe ratio
- 0.90 S&P 500 0.72
- Biggest drop
- −31.1% S&P 500 −31.8%
About
Mirrors the disclosed stock holdings of Rep. Lloyd Smucker (Republican, PA) and family. It buys on the first trading day after each report is filed, sized by the middle of the value band reported, starts from the holdings listed in the member's annual disclosure report once that report is public, and holds each position until a sale is reported. Call options count as the stock until they expire. Members often report weeks or months late, so this is what a follower could actually have done.
Key statistics
| Measure | Strategy | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Return a year (compound) | +26.2% | +14.7% |
| Total return | +805% | +265% |
| Last 12 months | +25.1% | +12.1% |
| Last 3 months | +9.2% | — |
| Last month | +1.0% | — |
| This year so far | +23.6% | — |
| Volatility a year | 27.0% | 17.4% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.90 | 0.72 |
| Biggest drop | −31.1% | −31.8% |
| Beta to the S&P 500 | 1.09 | 1.00 |
| Alpha a year (t-statistic) | +10.5% (1.68) | — |
| Share of weeks up | 58% | — |
Insights
| Company | Weight | Held since | Return since |
|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | 100.0% | 16 May 2017 | +835.2% |
| Period | Return a year | S&P 500 | Sharpe | S&P 500 | Biggest drop | Beta | Alpha (t) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Whole backtest16 May 2017 to 2 Nov 2026 | +26.2% | +14.7% | 0.90 | 0.72 | −31.1% | 1.09 | +10.5% (1.68) |
| 2018 onwards5 Jan 2018 to 2 Nov 2026 | +26.0% | +13.9% | 0.87 | 0.66 | −31.1% | 1.09 | +11.2% (1.70) |
| Last three years3 Nov 2023 to 2 Nov 2026 | +24.6% | +21.8% | 0.79 | 1.16 | −26.2% | 1.04 | +4.2% (0.32) |
| Last year7 Nov 2025 to 2 Nov 2026 | +26.4% | +14.2% | 0.93 | 0.84 | −11.1% | 0.69 | +15.2% (0.67) |