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Quiver method A (replicated)

Insider buying: Dollar value, above 200-day average, all $300m+

Backtest from 30 Apr 2010 to 2 Nov 2026 · weekly · hypothetical

Watch this strategy
Return a year
+13.3%
S&P 500 +13.8%
Last 12 months
+9.4%
S&P 500 +12.1%
Sharpe ratio
0.56
S&P 500 0.79
Biggest drop
−43.6%
S&P 500 −31.8%
$10.0k$20.0k$40.0k$80.0k 201020122014201620182020202220242026 $85.2k$78.3k
StrategyS&P 500 $10,000 in Insider buying: Dollar value, above 200-day average, all $300m+ from 30 Apr 2010 against the S&P 500 (total return) over the same dates, marked weekly, log scale. Hypothetical: before taxes.

About

Each month, buys the companies whose insiders (officers, directors, large holders) made the largest open-market purchases, by the rule in the label, using only Form 4 filings already public at the rebalance. Costs of 10 basis points a trade are deducted.

Insider backtests →

Key statistics

MeasureStrategyS&P 500
Return a year (compound)+13.3%+13.8%
Total return+683%+752%
Last 12 months+9.4%+12.1%
Last 3 months+3.4%—
Last month−0.4%—
This year so far−10.1%—
Volatility a year25.0%16.1%
Sharpe ratio0.560.79
Biggest drop−43.6%−31.8%
Beta to the S&P 5001.091.00
Alpha a year (t-statistic)+0.2% (0.05)—
Share of weeks up54%—

Sharpe ratio uses returns above the 3-month Treasury bill rate. Alpha is the yearly return left after allowing for the strategy's exposure to the S&P 500 (CAPM); a t-statistic below about 2 means it cannot be told apart from luck.

Insights

CompanyWeightHeld sinceReturn since
AAT10.0%——
AVO10.0%——
CRBG10.0%——
ENR10.0%——
FSBC10.0%——
FTK10.0%——
GME10.0%——
HELP10.0%——
INTC10.0%——
NGL10.0%——

Equal weight at the latest rebalance, rebuilt every month.

PeriodReturn a yearS&P 500SharpeS&P 500Biggest dropBetaAlpha (t)
Whole backtest30 Apr 2010 to 2 Nov 2026+13.3%+13.8%0.560.79−43.6%1.09+0.2% (0.05)
2018 onwards5 Jan 2018 to 2 Nov 2026+14.4%+13.9%0.510.66−42.3%1.10+1.8% (0.25)
Last three years3 Nov 2023 to 2 Nov 2026+18.7%+21.8%0.591.16−28.7%1.07−0.8% (−0.06)
Last year7 Nov 2025 to 2 Nov 2026+17.5%+14.2%0.590.84−21.4%0.73+8.2% (0.32)
DateCompanyAction
30 Oct 2026NGLBought
30 Oct 2026INTCBought
30 Oct 2026HELPBought
30 Oct 2026GMEBought
30 Oct 2026FTKBought
30 Oct 2026FSBCBought
30 Oct 2026CRBGBought
30 Oct 2026AVOBought
30 Sept 2026RSGBought
30 Sept 2026CBIOBought
30 Sept 2026AUPHBought
30 Sept 2026AMRBought
31 Aug 2026TXOBought
31 Aug 2026PLSEBought
31 Aug 2026NSPBought
31 Aug 2026NMMBought
31 Aug 2026IFFBought
31 Aug 2026GOLDBought
31 Aug 2026FBINBought
31 Aug 2026ENRBought
31 Aug 2026CGONBought
31 Aug 2026AATBought

Dated at the rebalance that made the change.

DateCompanyAction
30 Oct 2026TXOSold
30 Oct 2026RSGSold
30 Oct 2026NMMSold
30 Oct 2026IFFSold
30 Oct 2026CGONSold
30 Oct 2026CBIOSold
30 Oct 2026AUPHSold
30 Oct 2026AMRSold
30 Sept 2026PLSESold
30 Sept 2026NSPSold
30 Sept 2026GOLDSold
30 Sept 2026FBINSold

Dated at the rebalance that made the change.

Backtests are hypothetical and use today's listed companies only, which flatters results. Past performance does not predict future returns. This is research, not investment advice. How we backtest