HCA Healthcare reports results on Tuesday 27 October, before the market opens. Revenue over the twelve months to Q2 2026 was $78.0 billion, up 7.3% from the year prior.
Source: reported quarterly EPS and aggregated third-party estimates. Historical surprises are context, not a forecast.
View chart data
| Period | Reported EPS | Analysts' estimate |
|---|---|---|
| Sep '25 | $6.96 | $5.73 |
| Dec '25 | $8.01 | $7.48 |
| Mar '26 | $7.15 | $7.13 |
| Jun '26 | $7.59 | $7.50 |
What analysts expect
The analysts’ average EPS estimate for the quarter is $6.63, in a range from $5.83 to $7.35, while their average revenue estimate stands at $19.3 billion. For full-year EPS, the average estimate is $29.49, which would be up 4.5% on last year (based on 22 analysts). That estimate has fallen 1.5% over the past 90 days. Of the analysts’ recommendations, 15 are positive, 9 neutral and 2 negative.
Company guidance
In its latest earnings release, management set For the Year Ending December 31, 2026 Diluted earnings per share guidance at $28.70 to $30.50. In its latest earnings release, management set For the Year Ending December 31, 2026 Revenues guidance at $77.0 billion to $79.5 billion.
Earnings surprise model
The model estimates EPS could land above the analysts’ average estimate by 2.1%. Its estimated chance of an EPS beat is 75.0%, based on the last 4 quarters. The model shrinks the median recent surprise toward zero and uses a neutral prior for beat frequency; this small sample is a reference estimate, not company guidance.
Track record against estimates
The company reported EPS above the analysts’ average estimate in 4 of the last 4 quarters. Last quarter, EPS of $7.59 compared with an estimate of $7.50, above it by 1.2%.
The trends going in
Profit and cash are telling different stories: earnings rose while cash flow fell. That growth rate was up 0.6 percentage points on the rate a quarter earlier. Net income over the twelve months was $6.8 billion, which rose 14.6% on the year before, resulting in a trailing net margin of 8.8%.
Where the cash went
Investment is rising faster than operating cash flow, squeezing what is left for shareholders. Operating cash flow over the twelve months was $11.1 billion, down 6.8% on the year before. Capital spending was $5.1 billion, or 6.6% of revenue. Free cash flow, operating cash flow less capital spending, was $6.0 billion, down 17.8% on the year before. The free-cash-flow margin was 7.7% of revenue, down 2.3 percentage points from a year earlier. Meanwhile, the average diluted share count fell 9.0% over the year.
Against its own history
Set against the company’s own record: today’s free-cash-flow margin of 7.7% is higher than 62% of the company’s own past quarterly readings, which have ranged from −0.3% to 23.6%. Today’s twelve-month revenue growth rate of 7.3% is higher than 53% of past readings (0.4% to 14.2%).
Questions this report will answer
Whether the pick-up in revenue growth continues. Whether results land above or below the analysts’ expectations set out above. At the same time, whether margins hold at the trailing levels above. The next filing will show whether the trends above continue, slow or reverse.
The valuation angle
Our model translates these figures into value. In our model, growth 5 percentage points lower would lower the value by 35.4%, and 5 percentage points higher would raise it by 46.2%. A free-cash-flow margin 1 percentage point lower would lower it by 14.2%.
