Maplebear Inc. reports on Thursday 5 November, before the market opens. Revenue over the twelve months to Q2 2026 was $4.0 billion, up 12.6% on the year before, a rate above every reading in the company's own history. The question the report will test is whether that growth is reaching the bottom line or whether the company is trading margin for scale.
Source: reported quarterly EPS and aggregated third-party estimates. Historical surprises are context, not a forecast.
View chart data
| Period | Reported EPS | Analysts' estimate |
|---|---|---|
| Dec '25 | $0.30 | $0.51 |
| Mar '26 | $0.57 | $0.57 |
| Jun '26 | $0.45 | $0.54 |
| Sep '26 | $0.60 | $0.63 |
What analysts expect from Maplebear
The analysts' average EPS estimate for the quarter is $1.17, in a range from $1.06 to $1.37, with the average revenue estimate at $1.1 billion. For the full year, the average EPS estimate is $2.30, up 43.9% on last year, based on 24 analysts. That figure has fallen 5.8% over the past 90 days, a revision that qualifies the growth story. The recommendations on file split 10 positive, 20 neutral and 0 negative.
Earnings surprise model
Our model estimates EPS could land below the analysts' average estimate by 5.2%. The model's estimated chance of an EPS beat is 37.5%, based on the last 4 quarters. The model shrinks the median recent surprise toward zero and uses a neutral prior for beat frequency; this small sample is a reference estimate, not company guidance.
Maplebear's record against estimates
Maplebear reported EPS above the analysts' average estimate in 1 of the last 4 quarters. Last quarter, EPS of $0.60 compared with an estimate of $0.63, below it by 4.2%. The recent sequence of misses is the clearest counterpoint to the growth trend.
The free-cash-flow margin of 29.5% is above every past reading in the company's own record, which ran from 12.0% to 24.3%
Revenue growth is accelerating: the 12.6% rate is up 0.8 percentage points from a quarter earlier and sits above every past reading in the company's history, which ranged from 10.1% to 11.8%.
Profit is not keeping pace. Net income over the twelve months was $480.0 million, down 1.6% on the year before. The trailing operating margin of 14.7% fell 0.1 percentage points from a year earlier, the trailing gross margin held at 72.6% and the trailing net margin sat at 12.0%.
Cash flow tells a different story. Operating cash flow over the twelve months was $1.2 billion, up 46.8%. Capital spending was $56.0 million, or 1.4% of revenue, leaving free cash flow of $1.2 billion, up 51.0%.
The free-cash-flow margin of 29.5% is above every one of the company's own past quarterly readings, which ranged from 12.0% to 24.3%. The average diluted share count fell 5.7% over the year, so each share claims a larger slice of that cash. The operating margin of 14.7% is also higher than 83% of past readings, which ranged from −70.4% to 15.3%.
Questions this report will answer
The report will show whether the pick-up in revenue growth continues, whether results land above or below the analysts' expectations set out above, and whether margins hold at the trailing levels reported here.
What Maplebear's share price implies against our model
In our model, growth 5 percentage points lower would lower the value by 23.9%, and growth 5 percentage points higher would raise it by 30.9%. A free-cash-flow margin 1 percentage point lower would lower it by 3.3%.
