Marriott International reports on Monday 2 November, before the market opens. The report will test whether that combination holds.
Source: reported quarterly EPS and aggregated third-party estimates. Historical surprises are context, not a forecast.
View chart data
| Period | Reported EPS | Analysts' estimate |
|---|---|---|
| Sep '25 | $2.47 | $2.39 |
| Dec '25 | $2.58 | $2.62 |
| Mar '26 | $2.72 | $2.55 |
| Jun '26 | $3.19 | $3.08 |
What analysts expect from Marriott International
The analysts' average EPS estimate for the quarter is $2.85, in a range from $2.74 to $3.04. The average revenue estimate is $6.9 billion. For the full year, the analysts' average EPS estimate is $11.75, up 17.3% on last year, based on 26 analysts. That estimate has risen 1.0% over the past 90 days. Of the analysts' recommendations, 14 are positive, 13 neutral and 2 negative.
Company guidance
In its latest earnings release, management set Full Year 2026 Adjusted EPS – diluted guidance at $11.64 to $11.81. Third Quarter 2026 Adjusted EPS – diluted guidance is $2.74 to $2.82. Full Year 2026 Gross fee revenues guidance is $6.0 billion to $6.1 billion, and Third Quarter 2026 Gross fee revenues guidance is $1.5 billion to $1.5 billion.
Earnings surprise model
Our model estimates EPS could land above the analysts' average estimate by 1.8%. Its estimated chance of an EPS beat is 62.5%, based on the last 4 quarters. The model shrinks the median recent surprise toward zero and uses a neutral prior for beat frequency; this small sample is a reference estimate, not company guidance.
Marriott International's record against estimates
Marriott reported EPS above the analysts' average estimate in 3 of the last 4 quarters. Last quarter, EPS of $3.19 compared with an estimate of $3.08, above it by 3.6%.
Reported profit and cash are moving at different speeds
The twelve-month revenue growth rate of 4.7% is up 0.0 percentage points on the rate a quarter earlier. Margins, by contrast, are expanding: the trailing operating margin is 15.8%, up 0.7 percentage points from a year earlier, and the trailing net margin is 9.6%. Net income over the twelve months was $2.6 billion, up 4.9% on the year before.
The cash story is where those margin gains show up most clearly. Operating cash flow over the twelve months was $3.7 billion, up 49.8% on the year before. Capital spending was $596.0 million, or 2.2% of revenue, leaving free cash flow of $3.1 billion, up 86.2% on the year before. That free-cash-flow margin of 11.6% is up 5.1 percentage points from a year earlier. The average diluted share count fell 3.7% over the year, so each share captures a larger slice of that cash.
Put against its own history, these are unusual readings. The free-cash-flow margin of 11.6% is higher than 97% of the company's own past quarterly readings, which have ranged from 1.4% to 14.2%. The operating margin of 15.8% is higher than 86% of past readings (−2.8% to 17.6%). Revenue growth of 4.7% is higher than 42% of past readings (−60.2% to 91.8%).
Questions this report will answer
The report will answer three things: whether the pick-up in revenue growth continues, whether results land above or below the analysts' expectations set out above, and whether margins hold at the trailing levels reported here.
What Marriott International's share price implies against our model
In our model, growth 5 percentage points lower would lower the value by 32.2%, and growth 5 percentage points higher would raise it by 42.2%. A free-cash-flow margin 1 percentage point lower would lower the value by 9.1%.
