NXP Semiconductors reports results on Tuesday 27 October, after the market closes. The business is getting more profitable as it grows. Revenue over the twelve months to Q2 2026 was $13.2 billion, which rose 8.8% on the year before.
Source: reported quarterly EPS and aggregated third-party estimates. Historical surprises are context, not a forecast.
View chart data
| Period | Reported EPS | Analysts' estimate |
|---|---|---|
| Sep '25 | $3.11 | $3.12 |
| Dec '25 | $3.35 | $3.31 |
| Mar '26 | $3.05 | $2.98 |
| Jun '26 | $3.61 | $3.53 |
What analysts expect
Analysts have been raising their forecasts going into the report. For the quarter, the analysts’ average EPS estimate is $4.12, in a range from $3.95 to $4.26. The average revenue estimate for the quarter is $3.8 billion. Meanwhile, the analysts’ average estimate for full-year EPS is $15.11, which would be up 28.0% on last year (based on 29 analysts). That estimate has risen 1.6% over the past 90 days. Of the analysts’ recommendations, 21 are positive, 8 neutral and 1 negative.
Company guidance
In its latest earnings release, management set Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Per Share - diluted guidance at $3.21 to $3.64. In its latest earnings release, management set Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Per Share - diluted guidance at $3.89 to $4.32.
Earnings surprise model
The model estimates EPS could land above the analysts’ average estimate by 0.8%. Its estimated chance of an EPS beat is 62.5%, based on the last 4 quarters. The model shrinks the median recent surprise toward zero and uses a neutral prior for beat frequency; this small sample is a reference estimate, not company guidance.
Track record against estimates
The company reported EPS above the analysts’ average estimate in 3 of the last 4 quarters. Last quarter, EPS of $3.61 compared with an estimate of $3.53, above it by 2.4%.
The trends going in
Growth is speeding up. That growth rate was up 6.4 percentage points on the rate a quarter earlier. The trailing gross margin was 56.0%. The trailing operating margin was 32.0%, up 6.6 percentage points from a year earlier. The trailing net margin was 22.6%. Net income over the twelve months was $3.0 billion, which rose 38.5% on the year before.
Where the cash went
The cash flow statement shows growth. Operating cash flow over the twelve months was $3.1 billion, up 24.5% on the year before. Capital spending was $480.0 million, or 3.6% of revenue. Free cash flow, operating cash flow less capital spending, was $2.6 billion, up 43.0% on the year before. Free cash flow was 20.1% of revenue (the free-cash-flow margin), up 4.8 percentage points from a year earlier. The average diluted share count fell 0.6% over the year.
Against its own history
Set against the company’s own record: today’s free-cash-flow margin of 20.1% is higher than 56% of the company’s own past quarterly readings, which have ranged from 13.9% to 24.5%. Today’s operating margin of 32.0% is above every past reading (1.8% to 30.4%). Today’s twelve-month revenue growth rate of 8.8% is higher than 67% of past readings (−8.2% to 28.5%).
Questions this report will answer
Whether the pick-up in revenue growth continues. Whether results land above or below the analysts’ expectations set out above. At the same time, whether margins hold at the trailing levels above. The next filing will show whether the trends above continue, slow or reverse.
What it means for our valuation
These trends feed directly into what the shares are worth in our model. In our model, growth 5 percentage points lower would lower the value by 28.7%, and 5 percentage points higher would raise it by 37.3%. A free-cash-flow margin 1 percentage point lower would lower it by 5.1%.
