PayPal reports results on Tuesday 27 October, before the market opens. Today’s growth rate sits near the bottom of the company’s own record. Revenue over the twelve months to Q2 2026 was $34.1 billion, which rose 5.7% on the year before.
Source: reported quarterly EPS and aggregated third-party estimates. Historical surprises are context, not a forecast.
View chart data
| Period | Reported EPS | Analysts' estimate |
|---|---|---|
| Sep '25 | $1.34 | $1.21 |
| Dec '25 | $1.23 | $1.29 |
| Mar '26 | $1.34 | $1.27 |
| Jun '26 | $1.38 | $1.28 |
What analysts expect
Analysts have been raising their forecasts going into the report. For the quarter, the analysts’ average EPS estimate is $1.31, in a range from $1.27 to $1.40. The average revenue estimate for the quarter is $8.7 billion. Meanwhile, the analysts’ average estimate for full-year EPS is $5.39, which would be up 1.5% on last year (based on 33 analysts). That estimate has risen 1.6% over the past 90 days. Of the analysts’ recommendations, 7 are positive, 33 neutral and 4 negative.
Company guidance
In its latest earnings release, management set FY’26 Non-GAAP EPS guidance at $5.38.
Earnings surprise model
The model estimates EPS could land above the analysts’ average estimate by 3.4%. Its estimated chance of an EPS beat is 62.5%, based on the last 4 quarters. The model shrinks the median recent surprise toward zero and uses a neutral prior for beat frequency; this small sample is a reference estimate, not company guidance.
Track record against estimates
The company reported EPS above the analysts’ average estimate in 3 of the last 4 quarters. Last quarter, EPS of $1.38 compared with an estimate of $1.28, above it by 8.0%.
The trends going in
Profit and cash are telling different stories: cash flow grew far faster. That growth rate was down 0.1 percentage points on the rate a quarter earlier. The trailing operating margin was 17.4%, down 0.7 percentage points from a year earlier. Alongside that, the trailing net margin was 14.4%. Net income over the twelve months was $4.9 billion, which rose 4.8% on the year before.
Cash flow
The average diluted share count fell 7.8% over the year.
How today compares
In the context of past results: today’s operating margin of 17.4% is higher than 87% of the company’s own past quarterly readings, which have ranged from 13.5% to 18.3%. Today’s twelve-month revenue growth rate of 5.7% is higher than 10% of past readings (4.1% to 25.2%).
Questions this report will answer
Whether the slowdown in revenue growth continues. Whether results land above or below the analysts’ expectations set out above. Alongside that, Whether margins hold at the trailing levels above. The next filing will show whether the trends above continue, slow or reverse.
The valuation angle
Our model translates these figures into value. In our model, growth 5 percentage points lower would lower the value by 25.3%, and 5 percentage points higher would raise it by 33.1%. A free-cash-flow margin 1 percentage point lower would lower it by 5.0%.
